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Edge Labs · Situational

Umpire tendencies

Per home-plate umpire since 2023: games worked, average combined runs, how often the game cleared the consensus total (OVER %, pushes set aside), and home win %. The OVER % is measured against the number the market itself set, so it reads as a lean above or below the league baseline. This is a real run-environment signal with the sample shown, not a pick.

76Umpires · 75+ games
49.6%League over baseline
53%League home win %
7,789Games in sample
No umpire matching "Jen Pawol" at the 75+ game floor. Try a different spelling or lower the minimum.
21+ · research, not advice · over % set against the market's own consensus total · pushes excluded from over %
Umpire Games Decided Avg runs Avg total Over % Lean Home win %
Alfonso Márquez 111 106 9.95 8.51 62.3% +1.44 49.5%
Andy Fletcher 105 103 10.60 8.57 60.2% +2.03 55.2%
Adrian Johnson 102 96 9.83 8.58 59.4% +1.25 50.0%
Dan Bellino 112 108 9.83 8.43 59.3% +1.40 57.1%
Nate Tomlinson 103 101 9.42 8.61 58.4% +0.81 50.5%
Lance Barrett 115 108 9.28 8.33 57.4% +0.94 45.2%
Mike Muchlinski 108 101 9.85 8.33 57.4% +1.52 56.5%
Ryan Additon 103 101 9.30 8.51 57.4% +0.79 52.4%
Mark Wegner 98 96 9.78 8.49 57.3% +1.28 50.0%
Brian Walsh 92 86 9.62 8.30 57.0% +1.32 52.2%
Tom Hanahan 86 83 9.10 8.41 56.6% +0.69 50.0%
Jordan Baker 108 103 9.30 8.53 56.3% +0.76 49.1%
Malachi Moore 109 105 9.56 8.44 56.2% +1.11 52.3%
Ben May 106 102 9.73 8.48 55.9% +1.25 52.8%
Jansen Visconti 107 103 9.02 8.53 55.3% +0.49 45.8%
Mark Ripperger 112 104 9.10 8.43 53.8% +0.67 50.9%
Bruce Dreckman 99 95 8.97 8.56 53.7% +0.41 45.5%
Chad Whitson 89 86 9.26 8.45 53.5% +0.81 57.3%
CB Bucknor 81 75 8.74 8.44 53.3% +0.30 60.5%
Edwin Moscoso 113 109 9.01 8.49 53.2% +0.52 53.1%
Jim Wolf 100 96 8.89 8.49 53.1% +0.40 61.0%
Bill Miller 115 109 8.81 8.17 52.3% +0.64 53.9%
Derek Thomas 87 86 9.48 8.74 52.3% +0.75 50.6%
Vic Carapazza 118 115 9.23 8.43 52.2% +0.80 44.9%
Emil Jimenez 102 98 9.39 8.61 52.0% +0.79 55.9%
Quinn Wolcott 108 104 8.93 8.33 51.9% +0.59 52.8%
Shane Livensparger 85 83 8.79 8.39 51.8% +0.40 56.5%
Erich Bacchus 101 95 9.21 8.46 51.6% +0.75 52.5%
Chris Guccione 97 93 9.49 8.55 51.6% +0.94 58.8%
John Tumpane 104 99 8.95 8.37 51.5% +0.59 51.0%
Adam Hamari 116 111 8.80 8.45 51.4% +0.35 64.7%
Clint Vondrak 108 104 9.90 8.66 51.0% +1.24 48.1%
Mike Estabrook 109 106 8.96 8.48 50.9% +0.48 57.8%
Hunter Wendelstedt 78 77 8.99 8.55 50.6% +0.44 56.4%
Gabe Morales 111 109 8.50 8.33 50.5% +0.18 49.5%
Nestor Ceja 111 107 8.50 8.43 50.5% +0.07 55.0%
Doug Eddings 118 111 8.69 8.32 49.5% +0.37 60.2%
David Rackley 115 109 8.87 8.73 49.5% +0.14 59.1%
D.J. Reyburn 110 107 8.75 8.47 49.5% +0.27 63.6%
Sean Barber 107 103 9.23 8.52 49.5% +0.71 57.0%
Roberto Ortiz 101 95 8.69 8.36 49.5% +0.33 55.4%
Jeremie Rehak 99 96 9.02 8.49 49.0% +0.53 62.6%
James Hoye 105 99 8.94 8.58 48.5% +0.37 48.6%
Will Little 99 95 8.87 8.44 48.4% +0.43 50.5%
Chad Fairchild 102 98 9.20 8.53 48.0% +0.67 38.2%
Chris Segal 109 107 8.68 8.32 47.7% +0.36 58.7%
Paul Clemons 87 84 8.54 8.36 47.6% +0.18 52.9%
Manny Gonzalez 100 96 8.70 8.50 46.9% +0.20 54.0%
Lance Barksdale 113 109 8.73 8.63 46.8% +0.11 54.0%
Brian O'Nora 99 94 8.90 8.48 46.8% +0.41 49.5%
Nick Mahrley 100 95 8.85 8.59 46.3% +0.26 48.0%
Nic Lentz 110 106 8.51 8.55 46.2% -0.04 48.2%
Carlos Torres 107 102 9.00 8.66 46.1% +0.34 59.8%
Ramon De Jesus 106 102 9.33 8.47 46.1% +0.86 43.4%
Alan Porter 112 109 8.88 8.50 45.9% +0.39 50.9%
Dan Iassogna 107 103 9.11 8.51 45.6% +0.60 52.3%
Junior Valentine 102 97 8.81 8.63 45.4% +0.19 48.0%
Charlie Ramos 101 95 8.81 8.61 45.3% +0.20 50.5%
Marvin Hudson 100 93 8.46 8.49 45.2% -0.03 58.0%
John Libka 109 105 9.06 8.52 44.8% +0.53 43.1%
Adam Beck 109 103 8.73 8.50 44.7% +0.24 49.5%
Dan Merzel 105 103 8.70 8.46 44.7% +0.23 54.3%
Tripp Gibson 99 91 9.24 8.53 44.0% +0.72 53.5%
Rob Drake 76 75 8.66 8.52 44.0% +0.13 50.0%
Todd Tichenor 108 105 8.29 8.52 43.8% -0.24 50.0%
Laz Diaz 98 94 8.56 8.41 43.6% +0.15 65.3%
Ryan Wills 110 108 8.74 8.69 43.5% +0.05 50.9%
Stu Scheurwater 111 107 8.87 8.54 43.0% +0.33 53.2%
Scott Barry 79 75 9.06 8.48 42.7% +0.58 51.9%
Tony Randazzo 77 76 8.29 8.46 42.1% -0.18 51.9%
Cory Blaser 99 97 7.97 8.45 41.2% -0.48 55.6%
Alex Tosi 110 103 8.45 8.58 40.8% -0.13 45.5%
Ryan Blakney 100 95 7.86 8.50 40.0% -0.64 63.0%
Alex MacKay 91 85 8.07 8.49 40.0% -0.42 53.8%
Brennan Miller 104 101 8.01 8.54 36.6% -0.53 49.0%
Phil Cuzzi 86 80 7.93 8.31 36.3% -0.38 64.0%

Consensus total is the median 'totals' line at the last capture on or before first pitch. Over % is the share of decided games (pushes removed) that finished above that number, so it compares each umpire to the market's own expectation, not a flat over/under. Lean is average runs minus the average consensus total. A signal with its sample, never a guaranteed play.