EDGE LABS
From the lab
Weekly columns from Ace, Stack and Buck, and the research notes behind our ratings. Meet the crew.
Column tallies. Each column keeps its own count, apart from the Edge Labs record. One unit is one flat bet at the posted price.
-
Ace Ace's Outright Dog
-5.14 units, +0.58 this week, through Nov 14
-
Stack Stack's Teaser Card
1-2, -0.40 units, through Nov 14
-
Buck Buck's Primetime Props
+5.33 units, +1.56 in week 10, through Nov 14
His full column record is on the Prop Desk
Buck's plays are free. The full prop boards for the NFL slot games are on the Prop Desk, for members. Next up: Sunday early, Nov 15. See the Prop Desk
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Cavaliers at Heat: the small dog
Cleveland gets a short spread, a plus price, and a favorite whose recent margins have not held up.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Miami has the favorite under a real microscope
Indianapolis has enough changes on offense that the road dog is worth taking at the posted return.
Column tally-5.14 units, +0.58 this week, through Nov 14
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Dallas at Minnesota: the missing piece matters
Dallas brings a live recent run, while Minnesota's injury report makes the favorite less imposing.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Commanders at Giants: four unders and the numbers dressed for the highlight reel
Thursday night's board is shaded toward the receivers and passers fans know, so I take four unders on the Commanders side and stay off the loud names.
Column tally+5.33 units, +1.56 in week 10, through Nov 14
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The road dog with a ground game
Cincinnati has the rushing profile to make Iowa State solve a full game.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Trail Blazers at home, Nets with rest
Two favorites look a touch too comfortable, and the dogs have enough on the floor to make them work.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Clippers at Suns: take the road dog
The Clippers enter with 1 day off while Phoenix returns on no rest for its third game in four nights.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The price on Indiana
A short spread and a compressed Dallas schedule put the Pacers in the right spot.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Bills at Vikings: fading the catch counts in the dome
A dome, a total that has slid, and a Vikings passing game that keeps landing under its reception lines.
CFB ratings movers, week 10: Georgia wins 42 to 7 at Ole Miss, and Oregon beats Ohio State
After week 10, Georgia's 42 to 7 win at Ole Miss kept it number 1 in our college football rating, Alabama's win at LSU moved Alabama to 2nd, Oregon's 41 to 28 win at Ohio State moved Oregon from 21st to 13th, and Florida Atlantic had the biggest gain. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The small number belongs to the Clippers
A short spread and a rest edge make the home dog worth backing against the cleaner recent story.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Buccaneers at Bears: the board is shaded for the highlight reel
Chicago is laying 6 at home on a 47.5 total, and the prop board prices the players' best nights. I take the quiet side of four of them.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Rest is cheap in Atlanta
Brooklyn has the rest edge against an Atlanta favorite with a thin 1.4 average margin.
Stack's Teaser Card
By Stack Packers, Lions and Buccaneers through the key numbers
Green Bay through 3 and 7, Detroit down to a straight win, and a Tampa Bay defense with 12 points of room to work with.
Column tally1-2, -0.40 units, through Nov 14
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The price on Trail Blazers and Pelicans
Recent regular-season form gives these dogs a case at modest spreads.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Bengals vs Falcons, take the dog
Atlanta has an offensive answer, with the roof expected closed and Cincinnati missing a player on injured reserve.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace South Florida has the cleaner road case
The favorite cases have holes, and these dogs have enough football behind their prices.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Small dogs have teeth
Small spreads get my attention before a familiar favorite does.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Wizards at Magic: rest gets the last word
Washington gets a short number against an Orlando team carrying a crowded schedule into tonight.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: pay for the grind, not the highlight
A Monday night board where the big names' lines trail them, so I take no side there, and the shade sits on Darnold and the small pieces.
CFB ratings movers, week 9: USC beats Ohio State, and Georgia is the new number 1
After week 9, USC's 30 to 18 win over Ohio State moved USC from 34th to 18th in our college football rating and Ohio State from 1st to 5th, Georgia took over number 1, and Sacramento State had the biggest gain yet stayed 138th. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Raptors at Lakers: the price has teeth
Toronto's bigger recent margins meet a spread that leaves the door open.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Eagles at Commanders: unders on a 40.5 total
A low total, a short list of receivers who keep landing under their yardage, and a few props I will not touch.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The favorite's story has loose threads
Two road dogs with enough on the page to make the favorite answer for itself.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Panthers at Packers: the unders hiding behind the highlight numbers
A Thursday board shaded for the highlight reel, and four unders I will put my name on at the prices below.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Northwestern at Oregon, the dog has teeth
Northwestern has the offense to trade blows, while Oregon arrives with loose ends at the most important spot.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: fade the Eagles receivers
Three props on a Monday night board with a new quarterback in Philadelphia, and a handful of tempting props I leave alone.
CFB ratings movers, week 8: Boston College climbs 19 spots, and LSU is number 3 after winning at Auburn
After week 8, Boston College's 49 to 27 win at Georgia Tech was the biggest rating gain in our college football rating, Ole Miss fell two spots after losing at Texas, and Alabama's win lowered its rating. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Chiefs at Seahawks: the board is dressed for the highlight reel
A walk through the whole Sunday night board, the unders I will take at the posted price and the numbers I will not touch.
Stack's Teaser Card
By Stack Chiefs, Buccaneers and Browns, each teased across 3
Three six-point legs, each moved across 3, with a football reason under every one of them.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace New York's price is loud enough
A public quarterback change has turned Houston into the easy story, which is usually when the dog gets interesting.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Patriots at Bears: the yards the board shaded high
Unders on two receivers, a quarterback and a back, plus the one back I want to go over.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Sam Houston's defense leaves the favorite exposed
New Mexico State has rest, but Sam Houston owns the defensive path that makes this short moneyline worth taking.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Commanders at 49ers: the Monday numbers are dressed for the highlight reel
The 49ers pass catchers carry numbers built off their loudest games, and the Commanders backfield is priced for a game that stays close.
CFB ratings movers, week 7: Ole Miss climbs 5 spots, and Ohio State is number 1 after Georgia and Alabama lose
After week 7, Ole Miss's 31 to 3 win over Missouri was the biggest rating gain in our college football rating, Georgia and Alabama both lost, and Colorado gained rating points in a loss. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Cowboys at Packers: the unders hiding behind the big names
A walk through the full prop sheet for Cowboys at Packers, with four unders on the quieter names and five spots I will not touch.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The home dog with room to bite
Tampa Bay has a short path to an outright win if Pittsburgh's depleted receiving group cannot carry the road offense.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Seahawks at Broncos: fading the numbers built for the highlight reel
A thinned Denver secondary has the board dreaming of yards on a short week at altitude, and I am on the unders.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Wisconsin at UCLA: take the stable side
Wisconsin arrives with its quarterback order set, while UCLA is being asked to hold favorite status through a major change.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Bills at Rams: the board is paying for the shootout
Most numbers on the Monday night sheet assume a track meet, and I am taking the unders on the pieces that need one to cash.
CFB ratings movers, week 6: Buffalo's win at Toledo is the biggest swing, and Georgia retakes number 1
After week 6, Buffalo's 23 to 8 win at Toledo was the biggest swing in our college football rating, Georgia's win at Alabama flipped our top two, and Notre Dame lost rating points in a 51 point win. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: the unders the board forgot
Buck walks the whole Sunday night board, takes five props at their prices and names five he would not touch.
Stack's Teaser Card
By Stack Raiders, Bengals and Browns, moved through the key numbers
Three legs, six points each, and a football reason under every one of them.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Colts at Steelers: the price on the visitor
Indianapolis has flaws, but Pittsburgh has not given its offense a clean case at this price.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: I am under on the noise
A rookie quarterback, a home favorite laying 8 and a board shaded for the highlight reel. I take five unders and stay off the loud names.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace The short favorite has some explaining to do
USC brings the cleaner offense to Penn State, while Central Michigan meets an Ohio attack that stopped moving.
Buck's Primetime Props
By Buck Falcons at Saints: the big numbers are one night deep
Three unders on a Monday night board where the lines sit above what the recent games show, and one big-name prop I would leave alone.
CFB ratings movers, week 5: Missouri climbs 12 spots, and LSU drops after a 49 point win
After week 5, Missouri's 28 point win over Florida was the biggest swing in our college football rating, and LSU lost rating points despite winning by 49. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Ace's Outright Dog
By Ace Jacksonville and Atlanta take aim on the road
Two road underdogs arrive with a reason to make their hosts answer.
What a surprise QB start really costs
We tested four feature layers against our NFL margin model, one at a time, across four development seasons. Two made it worse and one barely moved it. The one that survived says a team starting anyone but its real starter costs about 2.8 points.
What our model refuses to claim
Our NFL model beats its own predecessor on margin accuracy, loses to the closing spread in every held out season, and we print both numbers instead of picking the one that flatters us.
The preseason prior is worth eight games
Every team in our college football rating starts the season at its preseason number, then updates one game at a time on the live ratings board; expected wins on that board still come from the preseason walk. The weight on each new result shrinks all season, calibrated so the preseason prior carries the same influence as about eight games of evidence. Here is the math, and the two seasons where we checked it against what actually happened.
Why our model demoted Denver
Denver tied for the best expected win total our first NFL rating produced. In the model that replaced it, on its Aug 18 build, the Broncos ranked seventh, and the reason is the gap between winning games and winning them by enough.
What the transfer portal is worth in our CFB model
Our college football rating carries two portal inputs. The raw count of net transfers came out slightly negative and the average star rating of the incoming class came out positive. Volume is not the signal. Quality is, and here are both weights next to the teams that show the split.
The one totals angle that cleared our gate, and then failed its live test
We tested dozens of college football angles against eight seasons of closing lines and killed almost all of them. One survived the backtest: early season unders on high totals. Then the 2026 forward test graded it at 47.3 percent unders on 131 games, below the 52.38 percent gate. Here is the rule, the evidence, and the final result.
What a first-year head coach costs
A first-year head coach costs a team about 2.3 rating points in our college football preseason model, and every one of the six weights behind that number is public.
What returning production is really worth
Returning production is the input everyone quotes in August and almost nobody prices. In our college football model it carries a weight of 5.87 rating points per unit, third behind performance carryover and talent, and here is what that means with the real 2026 numbers behind it.
The whole CFB model in seven numbers
Our college football preseason rating is one line of arithmetic: a constant and six inputs. It beat an SP plus carryover baseline on average out of sample, across two held out seasons and without losing either, and here is every number, including the one that came out backwards.
How we built our NFL power rating
We published a simple model, got called on its blind spot, and rebuilt it on 6,223 games of opponent adjusted margins. The new version won all four test seasons. Here is the whole build, including the number most services would bury.
Nothing here yet.
Show everything