College football and NFL picks · 2026

The 2026 record

Every pick we post lands here and grades in public at the number it locked at, college football and NFL each on its own line. Nothing is removed: the ledger only ever grows.

25-16

2026 CFB high confidence picks

61.0% win rate, n=41 · 1 pending

8-5

2026 NFL high confidence picks

61.5% win rate, n=13

The pick ledger

High is the headline above and the record our posts cite. Every pick locks the moment it publishes, at the number it published at, and grades against that same number. Confidence is the tier a pick carried when it locked, never a win probability or a hit rate, and a tier is never recomputed after the fact. A pick is high when all three analysts take its side at a captured number and at least one of them ranks it among their strongest sides of the run or grades it a bet. Nothing tops up the tier: a week can carry many highs or none, and each write-up says why its pick earned the label. A spread of 40 or more points is never above low. The lower tiers and the free subset each make a different claim, so they are counted on their own tabs rather than folded into the headline, and nothing is hidden: every pick we lock grades here, win or lose. Free picks are the ones we released publicly, three a week per league, and that tab cuts across the tiers on purpose, because it is the record a reader who never paid us actually saw. The running tally by tier and league is the table below; the total row is the three tiers added together, and the free row is a subset of them, never added in twice.

Tier	NFL	CFB
High	8-562%	25-16-161%
Medium	23-1955%	75-108-141%
Low	17-1357%	77-6753%
Freesubset, not added below	4-450%	7-847%
All tiers	48-3756%	177-191-248%

CFB week 5 · Oct 3 to Oct 3 High confidence none graded yet · 1 pending

Oct 3 Old Dominion at Georgia State Georgia State -1 · free Pending

CFB week 5 · Oct 3 to Oct 3 Medium confidence no picks in this tier this week

CFB week 5 · Oct 3 to Oct 3 Low confidence no picks in this tier this week

CFB week 5 · Oct 3 to Oct 3 Free picks none graded yet · 1 pending

Oct 3 Old Dominion at Georgia State Georgia State -1 · high Pending

NFL week 3 · Sep 24 to Sep 28 High confidence 1-0 · 100.0% win rate, n=1

Sep 27 New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 45.5 (total) New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35 Win

NFL week 3 · Sep 24 to Sep 28 Medium confidence 4-3 · 57.1% win rate, n=7

Sep 27 Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys Baltimore Ravens -3.5 · free Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 Loss
Sep 27 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Seattle Seahawks -7.5 Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 Loss
Sep 27 New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35 Win
Sep 27 Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Under 38.5 (total) Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 Win
Sep 27 New York Jets at Detroit Lions Over 47.5 (total) New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31 Win
Sep 27 Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Over 41.5 (total) Carolina Panthers 18, Cleveland Browns 21 Loss
Sep 24 Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers Atlanta Falcons +5.5 Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14 Win

NFL week 3 · Sep 24 to Sep 28 Low confidence 12-8 · 60.0% win rate, n=20

Sep 28 Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Chicago Bears +3.5 Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 Win
Sep 28 Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Under 42.5 (total) Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 Win
Sep 27 Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Denver Broncos +2.5 Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 Win
Sep 27 Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Under 45.5 (total) Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 Loss
Sep 27 Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 · free Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27 Win
Sep 27 Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys Under 53.5 (total) Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 Loss
Sep 27 Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Over 43.5 (total) Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27 Win
Sep 27 Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Minnesota Vikings -1 Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Win
Sep 27 Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Under 48 (total) Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36 Loss
Sep 27 Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Tennessee Titans +2.5 Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 Loss
Sep 27 Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -7 Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 Win
Sep 27 Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Kansas City Chiefs -10 Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 Win
Sep 27 Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts +2 Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 Win
Sep 27 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Loss
Sep 27 Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns +3 · free Carolina Panthers 18, Cleveland Browns 21 Win
Sep 27 Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Under 50.5 (total) Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 Win
Sep 27 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Under 40.5 (total) Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 Loss
Sep 27 Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Over 42 (total) Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 Loss
Sep 27 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 43 (total) Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Loss
Sep 27 Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Under 45.5 (total) Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 Win

NFL week 3 · Sep 24 to Sep 28 Free picks 2-1 · 66.7% win rate, n=3

Sep 27 Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys Baltimore Ravens -3.5 · medium Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 Loss
Sep 27 Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 · low Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27 Win
Sep 27 Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns +3 · low Carolina Panthers 18, Cleveland Browns 21 Win

CFB week 4 · Sep 24 to Sep 26 High confidence no picks in this tier this week

CFB week 4 · Sep 24 to Sep 26 Medium confidence 9-8 · 52.9% win rate, n=17

Sep 26 Georgia Tech at Stanford Georgia Tech -3.5 · free Georgia Tech 27, Stanford 34 Loss
Sep 26 Rice at Fresno State Under 44.5 (total) Rice 24, Fresno State 38 Loss
Sep 26 Missouri State at SMU Missouri State +35 Missouri State 24, SMU 34 Win
Sep 26 Troy at Utah State Troy +3 · free Troy 10, Utah State 21 Loss
Sep 26 Oklahoma State at West Virginia West Virginia -1.5 · free Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24 Loss
Sep 26 Delaware at Virginia Delaware +20 Delaware 3, Virginia 42 Loss
Sep 26 Gardner-Webb at Marshall Gardner-Webb +24.5 Gardner-Webb 35, Marshall 36 Win
Sep 26 Stonehill at Ohio Stonehill +33.5 Stonehill 7, Ohio 35 Win
Sep 26 UConn at Miami (OH) UConn +3.5 UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24 Win
Sep 26 Boise State at Western Michigan Western Michigan +7.5 Boise State 32, Western Michigan 7 Loss
Sep 26 Utah at Iowa State Under 48.5 (total) Utah 31, Iowa State 17 Win
Sep 26 Hawai'i at Wyoming Hawai'i -3 Hawai'i 10, Wyoming 27 Loss
Sep 26 Hawai'i at Wyoming Under 44.5 (total) Hawai'i 10, Wyoming 27 Win
Sep 26 Sam Houston at Texas Tech Sam Houston +34.5 Sam Houston 14, Texas Tech 49 Loss
Sep 26 Bucknell at Pittsburgh Under 63.5 (total) Bucknell 0, Pittsburgh 59 Win
Sep 26 Virginia Tech at Boston College Under 48.5 (total) Virginia Tech 21, Boston College 14 Win
Sep 26 Colorado at Baylor Under 55.5 (total) Colorado 13, Baylor 23 Win

CFB week 4 · Sep 24 to Sep 26 Low confidence 31-32 · 49.2% win rate, n=63

Sep 26 Minnesota at Washington Minnesota +10 Minnesota 27, Washington 24 Win
Sep 26 Minnesota at Washington Under 46 (total) Minnesota 27, Washington 24 Loss
Sep 26 Air Force at Nevada Under 50.5 (total) Air Force 36, Nevada 33 Loss
Sep 26 Rice at Fresno State Rice +13.5 Rice 24, Fresno State 38 Loss
Sep 26 Missouri State at SMU Under 60.5 (total) Missouri State 24, SMU 34 Win
Sep 26 Oregon State at UTEP Over 55.5 (total) Oregon State 33, UTEP 7 Loss
Sep 26 Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe UL Monroe +13.5 Florida Atlantic 45, UL Monroe 17 Loss
Sep 26 Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe Under 57.5 (total) Florida Atlantic 45, UL Monroe 17 Loss
Sep 26 Arizona at Washington State Under 49 (total) Arizona 34, Washington State 24 Loss
Sep 26 Oregon at USC Over 62 (total) Oregon 41, USC 27 Win
Sep 26 Troy at Utah State Under 48 (total) Troy 10, Utah State 21 Win
Sep 26 Texas A&M at LSU Under 52 (total) Texas A&M 6, LSU 35 Win
Sep 26 Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky Mercyhurst +40.5 Mercyhurst 7, Western Kentucky 52 Loss
Sep 26 Southern Miss at Tulane Southern Miss +17.5 Southern Miss 21, Tulane 24 Win
Sep 26 Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State Middle Tennessee +7.5 Middle Tennessee 13, Jacksonville State 23 Loss
Sep 26 South Carolina at Alabama Over 53.5 (total) South Carolina 18, Alabama 49 Win
Sep 26 Southern Miss at Tulane Under 52.5 (total) Southern Miss 21, Tulane 24 Win
Sep 26 Oklahoma State at West Virginia Under 60.5 (total) Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24 Loss
Sep 26 Kansas State at Cincinnati Under 55.5 (total) Kansas State 26, Cincinnati 31 Loss
Sep 26 Louisiana at Charlotte Louisiana -10 Louisiana 34, Charlotte 7 Win
Sep 26 Central Michigan at Miami Central Michigan +41.5 Central Michigan 3, Miami 52 Loss
Sep 26 Central Michigan at Miami Under 53.5 (total) Central Michigan 3, Miami 52 Loss
Sep 26 Louisiana at Charlotte Over 48.5 (total) Louisiana 34, Charlotte 7 Loss
Sep 26 Incarnate Word at Texas State Incarnate Word +30.5 Incarnate Word 10, Texas State 63 Loss
Sep 26 James Madison at Old Dominion James Madison -5.5 James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20 Win
Sep 26 James Madison at Old Dominion Under 45.5 (total) James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20 Loss
Sep 26 South Florida at Bowling Green South Florida -17.5 South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6 Loss
Sep 26 Wisconsin at Penn State Penn State -9.5 Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20 Loss
Sep 26 Wisconsin at Penn State Under 45 (total) Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20 Win
Sep 26 Vanderbilt at Auburn Over 54.5 (total) Vanderbilt 15, Auburn 21 Loss
Sep 26 North Carolina Central at East Carolina North Carolina Central +35.5 North Carolina Central 9, East Carolina 42 Win
Sep 26 North Carolina Central at East Carolina Under 56.5 (total) North Carolina Central 9, East Carolina 42 Win
Sep 26 Robert Morris at Buffalo Robert Morris +28.5 Robert Morris 28, Buffalo 31 Win
Sep 26 Iowa at Michigan Iowa +5.5 Iowa 20, Michigan 19 Win
Sep 26 Utah at Iowa State Utah -8 Utah 31, Iowa State 17 Win
Sep 26 TCU at UCF TCU -3 TCU 13, UCF 21 Loss
Sep 26 Oklahoma at Georgia Oklahoma +14 Oklahoma 13, Georgia 41 Loss
Sep 26 Boise State at Western Michigan Under 50.5 (total) Boise State 32, Western Michigan 7 Win
Sep 26 Gardner-Webb at Marshall Under 51.5 (total) Gardner-Webb 35, Marshall 36 Loss
Sep 26 Iowa at Michigan Under 38.5 (total) Iowa 20, Michigan 19 Loss
Sep 26 New Mexico at New Mexico State Under 48.5 (total) New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18 Loss
Sep 26 Stonehill at Ohio Over 52.5 (total) Stonehill 7, Ohio 35 Loss
Sep 26 TCU at UCF Under 48.5 (total) TCU 13, UCF 21 Win
Sep 26 Oklahoma at Georgia Under 44.5 (total) Oklahoma 13, Georgia 41 Loss
Sep 26 Central Arkansas at Florida State Under 62.5 (total) Central Arkansas 7, Florida State 34 Win
Sep 26 Northern Illinois at Georgia State Georgia State -10 Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35 Win
Sep 26 Notre Dame at Purdue Over 57.5 (total) Notre Dame 49, Purdue 10 Win
Sep 26 Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan Under 49.5 (total) Lindenwood 3, Eastern Michigan 29 Win
Sep 26 South Alabama at Kentucky South Alabama +20.5 South Alabama 21, Kentucky 45 Loss
Sep 26 Bucknell at Pittsburgh Bucknell +52.5 Bucknell 0, Pittsburgh 59 Loss
Sep 26 Colorado at Baylor Baylor -9.5 Colorado 13, Baylor 23 Win
Sep 26 Illinois at Ohio State Under 54.5 (total) Illinois 19, Ohio State 42 Loss
Sep 26 Colorado State at UTSA Under 58.5 (total) Colorado State 45, UTSA 59 Loss
Sep 26 UNLV at Akron Under 53 (total) UNLV 38, Akron 10 Win
Sep 26 Wake Forest at Louisville Over 57.5 (total) Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27 Loss
Sep 25 Clemson at California Clemson +1 Clemson 24, California 10 Win
Sep 25 Clemson at California Under 50.5 (total) Clemson 24, California 10 Win
Sep 25 Northwestern at Indiana Over 49.5 (total) Northwestern 23, Indiana 29 Win
Sep 25 Navy at UAB UAB +7 Navy 20, UAB 24 Win
Sep 25 Navy at UAB Under 51.5 (total) Navy 20, UAB 24 Win
Sep 25 Army at Temple Army -3 Army 21, Temple 17 Win
Sep 25 Army at Temple Under 48.5 (total) Army 21, Temple 17 Win
Sep 24 Liberty at Coastal Carolina Under 50.5 (total) Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17 Loss

CFB week 4 · Sep 24 to Sep 26 Free picks 0-3 · 0.0% win rate, n=3

Sep 26 Georgia Tech at Stanford Georgia Tech -3.5 · medium Georgia Tech 27, Stanford 34 Loss
Sep 26 Troy at Utah State Troy +3 · medium Troy 10, Utah State 21 Loss
Sep 26 Oklahoma State at West Virginia West Virginia -1.5 · medium Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24 Loss

NFL week 2 · Sep 17 to Sep 21 High confidence 3-3 · 50.0% win rate, n=6

Sep 20 Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys Washington Commanders +3.5 · free Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 Loss
Sep 20 Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals +4.5 · free Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7 Loss
Sep 20 Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Under 41.5 (total) Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7 Win
Sep 20 Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 · free Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 Loss
Sep 20 Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Under 41.5 (total) Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 Win
Sep 20 Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Under 49.5 (total) Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 Win

NFL week 2 · Sep 17 to Sep 21 Medium confidence 8-9 · 47.1% win rate, n=17

Sep 21 New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams New York Giants +7.5 New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 Loss
Sep 21 New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams Under 48.5 (total) New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 Win
Sep 20 Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 Loss
Sep 20 Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs Under 47.5 (total) Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 Loss
Sep 20 Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers -13.5 Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 Win
Sep 20 Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers Under 45.5 (total) Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 Loss
Sep 20 Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys Under 50.5 (total) Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 Loss
Sep 20 Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 Loss
Sep 20 Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Under 44.5 (total) Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 Win
Sep 20 Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers Under 43.5 (total) Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 Win
Sep 20 Green Bay Packers at New York Jets New York Jets +4 Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 Win
Sep 20 Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans Cincinnati Bengals +3 Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 Win
Sep 20 Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers -1.5 Carolina Panthers 34, Atlanta Falcons 3 Win
Sep 20 Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans Over 46.5 (total) Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 Loss
Sep 20 Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans Under 39.5 (total) Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 Loss
Sep 17 Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -4.5 Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 Win
Sep 17 Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills Under 53.5 (total) Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 Loss

NFL week 2 · Sep 17 to Sep 21 Low confidence 4-2 · 66.7% win rate, n=6

Sep 20 Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers Las Vegas Raiders +7 Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 Win
Sep 20 New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens -8.5 New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17 Loss
Sep 20 Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings +5.5 Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 Win
Sep 20 Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 Loss
Sep 20 Green Bay Packers at New York Jets Under 44.5 (total) Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17 Win
Sep 20 New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens Under 47 (total) New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17 Win

NFL week 2 · Sep 17 to Sep 21 Free picks 0-3 · 0.0% win rate, n=3

Sep 20 Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys Washington Commanders +3.5 · high Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 Loss
Sep 20 Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals +4.5 · high Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7 Loss
Sep 20 Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 · high Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 Loss

CFB week 3 · Sep 17 to Sep 19 High confidence 10-5 · 66.7% win rate, n=15

Sep 19 Northern Illinois at Arizona Under 49.5 (total) Northern Illinois 17, Arizona 42 Loss
Sep 19 James Madison at San Diego State Under 46.5 (total) James Madison 26, San Diego State 13 Win
Sep 19 East Texas A&M at Tulsa East Texas A&M +42.5 East Texas A&M 0, Tulsa 42 Win
Sep 19 East Texas A&M at Tulsa Under 56.5 (total) East Texas A&M 0, Tulsa 42 Win
Sep 19 Murray State at Oklahoma State Murray State +55.5 Murray State 0, Oklahoma State 59 Loss
Sep 19 Georgia State at UCF Georgia State +18.5 · free Georgia State 30, UCF 44 Win
Sep 19 SE Louisiana at UL Monroe SE Louisiana +11.5 SE Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 35 Win
Sep 19 Ball State at Liberty Ball State +14 · free Ball State 15, Liberty 51 Loss
Sep 19 Ball State at Liberty Under 49.5 (total) Ball State 15, Liberty 51 Loss
Sep 19 Stonehill at Massachusetts Stonehill +32.5 Stonehill 14, Massachusetts 36 Win
Sep 19 Wagner at California Wagner +58.5 Wagner 7, California 49 Win
Sep 19 UTEP at Michigan UTEP +35.5 · free UTEP 17, Michigan 52 Win
Sep 19 Stonehill at Massachusetts Over 49.5 (total) Stonehill 14, Massachusetts 36 Win
Sep 19 UTEP at Michigan Under 48.5 (total) UTEP 17, Michigan 52 Loss
Sep 19 Wagner at California Under 65.5 (total) Wagner 7, California 49 Win

CFB week 3 · Sep 17 to Sep 19 Medium confidence 36-47 · 43.4% win rate, n=83

Sep 19 Montana at Oregon State Montana +17.5 Montana 17, Oregon State 52 Loss
Sep 19 Fresno State at San José State San José State +6.5 Fresno State 26, San José State 10 Loss
Sep 19 Purdue at UCLA Purdue +14.5 Purdue 38, UCLA 52 Win
Sep 19 Montana at Oregon State Over 52.5 (total) Montana 17, Oregon State 52 Win
Sep 19 North Dakota State at Sacramento State North Dakota State -27.5 North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10 Loss
Sep 19 Northern Illinois at Arizona Northern Illinois +34.5 Northern Illinois 17, Arizona 42 Win
Sep 19 North Dakota State at Sacramento State Under 50.5 (total) North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10 Win
Sep 19 South Dakota at Boise State Over 55.5 (total) South Dakota 24, Boise State 38 Win
Sep 19 UAB at Louisiana UAB +7.5 UAB 14, Louisiana 21 Win
Sep 19 Arkansas State at TCU Arkansas State +20.5 Arkansas State 7, TCU 31 Loss
Sep 19 UTSA at Texas UTSA +30.5 UTSA 6, Texas 30 Win
Sep 19 UAB at Louisiana Under 56.5 (total) UAB 14, Louisiana 21 Win
Sep 19 UTSA at Texas Under 58 (total) UTSA 6, Texas 30 Win
Sep 19 Colorado at Northwestern Colorado +3.5 Colorado 7, Northwestern 41 Loss
Sep 19 Michigan State at Notre Dame Michigan State +29.5 Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27 Win
Sep 19 West Virginia vs Virginia Virginia -9.5 West Virginia 38, Virginia 27 Loss
Sep 19 BYU at Colorado State Colorado State +17.5 BYU 41, Colorado State 23 Loss
Sep 19 West Virginia vs Virginia Under 53.5 (total) West Virginia 38, Virginia 27 Loss
Sep 19 New Mexico at Oklahoma Under 46.5 (total) New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14 Win
Sep 19 Virginia Tech at Maryland Over 54 (total) Virginia Tech 35, Maryland 26 Win
Sep 19 Michigan State at Notre Dame Under 52.5 (total) Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27 Win
Sep 19 Colorado at Northwestern Under 48.5 (total) Colorado 7, Northwestern 41 Win
Sep 19 Eastern Washington at Washington Eastern Washington +42.5 Eastern Washington 16, Washington 48 Win
Sep 19 North Dakota at Nebraska North Dakota +24.5 North Dakota 7, Nebraska 34 Loss
Sep 19 Eastern Washington at Washington Under 57.5 (total) Eastern Washington 16, Washington 48 Loss
Sep 19 North Dakota at Nebraska Over 51.5 (total) North Dakota 7, Nebraska 34 Loss
Sep 19 Nicholls at Sam Houston Nicholls +18.5 Nicholls 0, Sam Houston 59 Loss
Sep 19 Delaware State at South Florida Delaware State +37.5 Delaware State 17, South Florida 59 Loss
Sep 19 UT Martin at Memphis UT Martin +35.5 UT Martin 21, Memphis 45 Win
Sep 19 Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State Georgia Southern +3.5 Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 31 Loss
Sep 19 Ohio at South Alabama South Alabama -7 Ohio 36, South Alabama 41 Loss
Sep 19 Florida at Auburn Auburn +2.5 Florida 44, Auburn 39 Loss
Sep 19 UT Martin at Memphis Over 56.5 (total) UT Martin 21, Memphis 45 Win
Sep 19 Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State Under 52.5 (total) Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 31 Loss
Sep 19 Georgia State at UCF Under 51.5 (total) Georgia State 30, UCF 44 Loss
Sep 19 Delaware State at South Florida Under 61.5 (total) Delaware State 17, South Florida 59 Loss
Sep 19 UConn at Southern Miss Under 54.5 (total) UConn 48, Southern Miss 20 Loss
Sep 19 Nevada at Middle Tennessee Under 51 (total) Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27 Win
Sep 19 Florida at Auburn Under 53.5 (total) Florida 44, Auburn 39 Loss
Sep 19 Western Michigan at Rice Under 43.5 (total) Western Michigan 28, Rice 21 Loss
Sep 19 Marshall at Missouri State Missouri State +4.5 Marshall 30, Missouri State 24 Loss
Sep 19 Charlotte at App State App State -17.5 Charlotte 21, App State 26 Loss
Sep 19 Florida International at Florida Atlantic Florida International +6.5 Florida International 10, Florida Atlantic 16 Win
Sep 19 East Carolina at Old Dominion Under 49 (total) East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 17 Win
Sep 19 Florida International at Florida Atlantic Under 62.5 (total) Florida International 10, Florida Atlantic 16 Win
Sep 19 Mississippi State at South Carolina Mississippi State +3.5 Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34 Win
Sep 19 Mississippi State at South Carolina Under 58.5 (total) Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34 Loss
Sep 19 Northern Iowa at Iowa Northern Iowa +40.5 Northern Iowa 0, Iowa 55 Loss
Sep 19 Stanford at Duke Duke -9.5 Stanford 7, Duke 35 Win
Sep 19 Western Kentucky at Indiana Western Kentucky +44.5 Western Kentucky 0, Indiana 38 Win
Sep 19 Louisiana Tech at Baylor Under 53.5 (total) Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36 Loss
Sep 19 Northern Iowa at Iowa Under 49.5 (total) Northern Iowa 0, Iowa 55 Loss
Sep 19 Duquesne at Washington State Duquesne +38.5 Duquesne 7, Washington State 48 Loss
Sep 19 Florida State at Alabama Under 49.5 (total) Florida State 36, Alabama 50 Loss
Sep 19 Utah State at Utah Under 56.5 (total) Utah State 0, Utah 33 Win
Sep 19 Duquesne at Washington State Under 53.5 (total) Duquesne 7, Washington State 48 Loss
Sep 19 Temple at Toledo Under 50.5 (total) Temple 48, Toledo 49 Loss
Sep 19 Southern Illinois at Illinois Southern Illinois +38.5 Southern Illinois 10, Illinois 48 Win
Sep 19 Maine at Boston College Maine +37.5 Maine 16, Boston College 22 Win
Sep 19 Southern Illinois at Illinois Over 54.5 (total) Southern Illinois 10, Illinois 48 Win
Sep 19 Wyoming at Central Michigan Wyoming +1.5 Wyoming 10, Central Michigan 24 Loss
Sep 19 Wyoming at Central Michigan Under 39.5 (total) Wyoming 10, Central Michigan 24 Win
Sep 19 Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin Eastern Michigan +24 Eastern Michigan 10, Wisconsin 54 Loss
Sep 19 Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin Under 45.5 (total) Eastern Michigan 10, Wisconsin 54 Loss
Sep 19 Kent State at Ohio State Kent State +52.5 Kent State 3, Ohio State 59 Loss
Sep 19 Mercer at Georgia Tech Mercer +38.5 Mercer 11, Georgia Tech 44 Win
Sep 19 Arizona State vs Kansas Arizona State -5.5 Arizona State 24, Kansas 17 Win
Sep 19 North Texas at Texas State North Texas +2.5 North Texas 35, Texas State 49 Loss
Sep 19 Akron at Minnesota Akron +24.5 Akron 7, Minnesota 41 Loss
Sep 19 Bowling Green at Iowa State Under 43.5 (total) Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55 Loss
Sep 19 Tulane at Kansas State Under 49.5 (total) Tulane 20, Kansas State 31 Loss
Sep 19 Georgia at Arkansas Under 54.5 (total) Georgia 45, Arkansas 17 Loss
Sep 19 Kent State at Ohio State Under 58.5 (total) Kent State 3, Ohio State 59 Loss
Sep 19 Mercer at Georgia Tech Under 58.5 (total) Mercer 11, Georgia Tech 44 Win
Sep 19 Buffalo at Penn State Under 49.5 (total) Buffalo 13, Penn State 55 Loss
Sep 19 North Carolina at Clemson Under 44.5 (total) North Carolina 20, Clemson 28 Loss
Sep 19 Arizona State vs Kansas Under 50.5 (total) Arizona State 24, Kansas 17 Win
Sep 19 Coastal Carolina at Delaware Under 57 (total) Coastal Carolina 14, Delaware 22 Win
Sep 18 Portland State at Oregon Portland State +57.5 Portland State 0, Oregon 84 Loss
Sep 18 Portland State at Oregon Under 68 (total) Portland State 0, Oregon 84 Loss
Sep 18 Houston at Texas Tech Houston +7.5 Houston 26, Texas Tech 28 Win
Sep 18 Miami at Wake Forest Over 55.5 (total) Miami 33, Wake Forest 20 Loss
Sep 17 Syracuse at Pittsburgh Under 51.5 (total) Syracuse 13, Pittsburgh 27 Win

CFB week 3 · Sep 17 to Sep 19 Low confidence 22-16 · 57.9% win rate, n=38

Sep 19 Purdue at UCLA Over 52.5 (total) Purdue 38, UCLA 52 Win
Sep 19 Fresno State at San José State Under 50.5 (total) Fresno State 26, San José State 10 Win
Sep 19 James Madison at San Diego State James Madison +2.5 James Madison 26, San Diego State 13 Win
Sep 19 Arkansas State at TCU Under 55.5 (total) Arkansas State 7, TCU 31 Win
Sep 19 Kennesaw State at Tennessee Kennesaw State +35.5 Kennesaw State 9, Tennessee 42 Win
Sep 19 Kennesaw State at Tennessee Under 59.5 (total) Kennesaw State 9, Tennessee 42 Win
Sep 19 Virginia Tech at Maryland Maryland +3 Virginia Tech 35, Maryland 26 Loss
Sep 19 New Mexico at Oklahoma New Mexico +22.5 New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14 Win
Sep 19 LSU at Ole Miss Ole Miss +3 LSU 24, Ole Miss 32 Win
Sep 19 BYU at Colorado State Under 52.5 (total) BYU 41, Colorado State 23 Loss
Sep 19 LSU at Ole Miss Over 58.5 (total) LSU 24, Ole Miss 32 Loss
Sep 19 Western Michigan at Rice Rice +9.5 Western Michigan 28, Rice 21 Win
Sep 19 UConn at Southern Miss Southern Miss +3 UConn 48, Southern Miss 20 Loss
Sep 19 Nevada at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee +4 Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27 Win
Sep 19 Troy at Missouri Troy +26.5 Troy 17, Missouri 27 Win
Sep 19 Ohio at South Alabama Under 49.5 (total) Ohio 36, South Alabama 41 Loss
Sep 19 Nicholls at Sam Houston Over 49.5 (total) Nicholls 0, Sam Houston 59 Win
Sep 19 Troy at Missouri Over 50.5 (total) Troy 17, Missouri 27 Loss
Sep 19 Marshall at Missouri State Under 52.5 (total) Marshall 30, Missouri State 24 Loss
Sep 19 East Carolina at Old Dominion East Carolina +3 East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 17 Win
Sep 19 Charlotte at App State Over 51.5 (total) Charlotte 21, App State 26 Loss
Sep 19 Louisiana Tech at Baylor Louisiana Tech +19 Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36 Win
Sep 19 Western Kentucky at Indiana Under 60 (total) Western Kentucky 0, Indiana 38 Win
Sep 19 SMU at Louisville SMU +1.5 SMU 31, Louisville 41 Loss
Sep 19 Utah State at Utah Utah State +28 Utah State 0, Utah 33 Loss
Sep 19 Florida State at Alabama Alabama -19.5 Florida State 36, Alabama 50 Loss
Sep 19 Kentucky at Texas A&M Under 49.5 (total) Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21 Loss
Sep 19 SMU at Louisville Over 59.5 (total) SMU 31, Louisville 41 Win
Sep 19 USC at Rutgers Over 59.5 (total) USC 42, Rutgers 35 Win
Sep 19 Temple at Toledo Toledo -5.5 Temple 48, Toledo 49 Loss
Sep 19 NC State at Vanderbilt Under 51.5 (total) NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35 Loss
Sep 19 Bowling Green at Iowa State Iowa State -23.5 Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55 Win
Sep 19 Tulane at Kansas State Tulane +20.5 Tulane 20, Kansas State 31 Win
Sep 19 Georgia at Arkansas Georgia -25.5 Georgia 45, Arkansas 17 Win
Sep 19 Akron at Minnesota Under 49.5 (total) Akron 7, Minnesota 41 Win
Sep 19 Coastal Carolina at Delaware Coastal Carolina +4.5 Coastal Carolina 14, Delaware 22 Loss
Sep 18 Houston at Texas Tech Under 53.5 (total) Houston 26, Texas Tech 28 Loss
Sep 18 Miami at Wake Forest Wake Forest +20.5 Miami 33, Wake Forest 20 Win

CFB week 3 · Sep 17 to Sep 19 Free picks 2-1 · 66.7% win rate, n=3

Sep 19 Georgia State at UCF Georgia State +18.5 · high Georgia State 30, UCF 44 Win
Sep 19 Ball State at Liberty Ball State +14 · high Ball State 15, Liberty 51 Loss
Sep 19 UTEP at Michigan UTEP +35.5 · high UTEP 17, Michigan 52 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 14 High confidence 4-2 · 66.7% win rate, n=6

Sep 14 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Under 43.5 (total) Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 Win
Sep 13 Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals +9.5 · free Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 Win
Sep 13 Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Under 40.5 (total) · free Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 Win
Sep 13 Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts +3.5 Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 Loss
Sep 13 Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers Under 47.5 (total) Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 Loss
Sep 10 San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers +3.5 San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 14 Medium confidence 11-7 · 61.1% win rate, n=18

Sep 13 Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants New York Giants +2.5 Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 Win
Sep 13 Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Under 48.5 (total) Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 Win
Sep 13 Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Miami Dolphins +3 Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 Loss
Sep 13 Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings -1.5 Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 Win
Sep 13 Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles Under 44.5 (total) Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 Loss
Sep 13 Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers Under 47.5 (total) Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 Win
Sep 13 Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Under 46.5 (total) Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 Loss
Sep 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 Win
Sep 13 New York Jets at Tennessee Titans New York Jets +1.5 New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10 Win
Sep 13 Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 Win
Sep 13 Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears -3 Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 Win
Sep 13 Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Win
Sep 13 Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 40.5 (total) Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 Loss
Sep 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals Under 50.5 (total) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 Loss
Sep 13 Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Under 44.5 (total) Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 Loss
Sep 13 New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions Under 49.5 (total) New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31 Loss
Sep 10 San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Under 48.5 (total) San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 Win
Sep 9 New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks Under 44.5 (total) New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 14 Low confidence 1-3 · 25.0% win rate, n=4

Sep 14 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos +2.5 Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 Loss
Sep 13 Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 Loss
Sep 13 Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Houston Texans +1.5 Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 Loss
Sep 9 New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots +3.5 New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 14 Free picks 2-0 · 100.0% win rate, n=2

Sep 13 Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals +9.5 · high Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 Win
Sep 13 Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Under 40.5 (total) · high Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 Win

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 High confidence 4-4 · 50.0% win rate, n=8

Sep 12 Arkansas at Utah Under 54.5 (total) · free Arkansas 10, Utah 43 Win
Sep 12 Delaware at Vanderbilt Delaware +21 Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35 Win
Sep 12 Maryland at UConn UConn +12.5 · free Maryland 38, UConn 14 Loss
Sep 12 Arizona at BYU Arizona +7.5 Arizona 17, BYU 28 Loss
Sep 12 Utah State at Washington Under 55.5 (total) Utah State 14, Washington 16 Win
Sep 12 Oregon at Oklahoma State Oregon -22.5 · free Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39 Loss
Sep 12 Washington State at Kansas State Under 49 (total) Washington State 7, Kansas State 34 Win
Sep 11 Missouri at Kansas Kansas +5.5 Missouri 38, Kansas 21 Loss

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 Medium confidence 28-38 · 42.4% win rate, n=66

Sep 12 New Mexico State at Hawai'i Under 49.5 (total) New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29 Win
Sep 12 Louisiana at USC Under 59.5 (total) Louisiana 30, USC 49 Loss
Sep 12 Sacramento State at Fresno State Sacramento State +17.5 Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49 Loss
Sep 12 Montana State at Nevada Under 50.5 (total) Montana State 20, Nevada 7 Win
Sep 12 Sacramento State at Fresno State Under 44.5 (total) Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49 Loss
Sep 12 North Dakota State at Air Force Under 47.5 (total) North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32 Loss
Sep 12 Cal Poly at San José State Cal Poly +20.5 Cal Poly 20, San José State 30 Win
Sep 12 Charlotte at Ole Miss Charlotte +47.5 Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41 Win
Sep 12 Southern Miss at Auburn Southern Miss +33.5 Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43 Loss
Sep 12 Charlotte at Ole Miss Under 60.5 (total) Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41 Win
Sep 12 Georgia Southern at Clemson Georgia Southern +20.5 Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22 Win
Sep 12 Navy at Florida Atlantic Navy -4.5 Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38 Loss
Sep 12 Iowa State at Iowa Iowa State +14 Iowa State 13, Iowa 16 Win
Sep 12 Ohio State at Texas Ohio State +1.5 Ohio State 23, Texas 24 Win
Sep 12 Texas Tech at Oregon State Over 53.5 (total) Texas Tech 49, Oregon State 27 Win
Sep 12 Iowa State at Iowa Under 40.5 (total) Iowa State 13, Iowa 16 Win
Sep 12 Georgia Southern at Clemson Under 55.5 (total) Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22 Win
Sep 12 Lindenwood at Missouri State Lindenwood +19.5 Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48 Loss
Sep 12 Southern Utah at Colorado State Southern Utah +20.5 Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58 Loss
Sep 12 Bowling Green at Nebraska Nebraska -30.5 Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56 Win
Sep 12 Middle Tennessee at Marshall Middle Tennessee +13.5 Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28 Win
Sep 12 South Alabama at Tulane South Alabama +9.5 South Alabama 24, Tulane 28 Win
Sep 12 Tulsa at Sam Houston Sam Houston +13.5 Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17 Win
Sep 12 Tennessee at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech +12.5 Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24 Loss
Sep 12 Georgia State at Kennesaw State Under 54.5 (total) Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17 Win
Sep 12 Middle Tennessee at Marshall Under 56.5 (total) Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28 Win
Sep 12 South Alabama at Tulane Under 49.5 (total) South Alabama 24, Tulane 28 Loss
Sep 12 Tennessee at Georgia Tech Under 55.5 (total) Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24 Loss
Sep 12 Illinois State at Northern Illinois Under 47.5 (total) Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24 Loss
Sep 12 Southern Utah at Colorado State Under 56.5 (total) Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58 Loss
Sep 12 Bowling Green at Nebraska Under 51.5 (total) Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56 Loss
Sep 12 Memphis at Boise State Memphis +8.5 Memphis 20, Boise State 38 Loss
Sep 12 Jacksonville State at Ohio Under 50.5 (total) Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29 Loss
Sep 12 Buffalo at Florida International Under 47.5 (total) Buffalo 20, Florida International 33 Loss
Sep 12 Memphis at Boise State Over 54.5 (total) Memphis 20, Boise State 38 Win
Sep 12 Delaware at Vanderbilt Under 54.5 (total) Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35 Loss
Sep 12 UNLV at North Texas Under 56.5 (total) UNLV 6, North Texas 44 Win
Sep 12 Rice at Notre Dame Rice +44.5 Rice 0, Notre Dame 52 Loss
Sep 12 UL Monroe at UAB UAB -10 UL Monroe 20, UAB 26 Loss
Sep 12 Duke at Illinois Duke +5.5 Duke 31, Illinois 27 Win
Sep 12 Eastern Michigan at Michigan State Under 49.5 (total) Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35 Win
Sep 12 UL Monroe at UAB Under 55.5 (total) UL Monroe 20, UAB 26 Win
Sep 12 Duke at Illinois Under 51.5 (total) Duke 31, Illinois 27 Loss
Sep 12 Mississippi State at Minnesota Under 55.5 (total) Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13 Win
Sep 12 UCF at Pittsburgh Under 56.5 (total) UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12 Win
Sep 12 Alabama at Kentucky Under 49.5 (total) Alabama 45, Kentucky 17 Loss
Sep 12 Stony Brook at Ball State Stony Brook +15.5 Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41 Loss
Sep 12 Wofford at Kent State Wofford +11.5 Wofford 15, Kent State 36 Loss
Sep 12 App State at East Carolina App State +7 App State 27, East Carolina 24 Win
Sep 12 Wake Forest at Purdue Wake Forest -3 Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36 Loss
Sep 12 Washington State at Kansas State Washington State +18.5 Washington State 7, Kansas State 34 Loss
Sep 12 Penn State at Temple Penn State -23.5 Penn State 27, Temple 9 Loss
Sep 12 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Old Dominion +19.5 Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44 Loss
Sep 12 Oregon at Oklahoma State Under 57.5 (total) Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39 Loss
Sep 12 Oklahoma at Michigan Under 43.5 (total) Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17 Win
Sep 12 Penn State at Temple Under 49.5 (total) Penn State 27, Temple 9 Win
Sep 12 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Under 49.5 (total) Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44 Loss
Sep 12 South Florida at Army Under 46.5 (total) South Florida 28, Army 24 Loss
Sep 12 Wofford at Kent State Under 47.5 (total) Wofford 15, Kent State 36 Loss
Sep 11 Missouri at Kansas Under 50 (total) Missouri 38, Kansas 21 Loss
Sep 11 Rutgers at Boston College Rutgers +3.5 Rutgers 21, Boston College 28 Loss
Sep 11 Rutgers at Boston College Under 54.5 (total) Rutgers 21, Boston College 28 Win
Sep 11 Richmond at NC State Richmond +32.5 Richmond 0, NC State 73 Loss
Sep 11 Norfolk State at Virginia Norfolk State +45.5 Norfolk State 3, Virginia 59 Loss
Sep 11 Norfolk State at Virginia Under 54.5 (total) Norfolk State 3, Virginia 59 Loss
Sep 10 Florida A&M at Miami Under 65.5 (total) Florida A&M 7, Miami 77 Loss

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 Low confidence 20-17 · 54.1% win rate, n=37

Sep 12 New Mexico State at Hawai'i New Mexico State +7.5 New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29 Loss
Sep 12 Louisiana at USC Louisiana +30.5 Louisiana 30, USC 49 Win
Sep 12 Montana State at Nevada Nevada +3.5 Montana State 20, Nevada 7 Loss
Sep 12 Arkansas at Utah Utah -12.5 Arkansas 10, Utah 43 Win
Sep 12 Cal Poly at San José State Over 57.5 (total) Cal Poly 20, San José State 30 Loss
Sep 12 Southern Miss at Auburn Under 56.5 (total) Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43 Win
Sep 12 Texas Tech at Oregon State Oregon State +25.5 Texas Tech 49, Oregon State 27 Win
Sep 12 Louisiana Tech at LSU Louisiana Tech +35.5 Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45 Win
Sep 12 Louisiana Tech at LSU Under 55.5 (total) Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45 Loss
Sep 12 Ohio State at Texas Under 49.5 (total) Ohio State 23, Texas 24 Win
Sep 12 Navy at Florida Atlantic Under 58.5 (total) Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38 Loss
Sep 12 San Diego State at UCLA Under 55.5 (total) San Diego State 10, UCLA 28 Win
Sep 12 Illinois State at Northern Illinois Illinois State -3.5 Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24 Win
Sep 12 Georgia State at Kennesaw State Georgia State +9.5 Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17 Win
Sep 12 Lindenwood at Missouri State Under 53.5 (total) Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48 Loss
Sep 12 Tulsa at Sam Houston Under 51.5 (total) Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17 Win
Sep 12 Jacksonville State at Ohio Ohio -2.5 Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29 Loss
Sep 12 Buffalo at Florida International Florida International -10.5 Buffalo 20, Florida International 33 Win
Sep 12 UNLV at North Texas UNLV -3.5 UNLV 6, North Texas 44 Loss
Sep 12 Eastern Michigan at Michigan State Eastern Michigan +17.5 Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35 Loss
Sep 12 UTSA at Texas State Texas State -2 UTSA 31, Texas State 26 Loss
Sep 12 UCF at Pittsburgh UCF +7.5 UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12 Win
Sep 12 Mississippi State at Minnesota Mississippi State -1.5 Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13 Win
Sep 12 Maryland at UConn Over 52.5 (total) Maryland 38, UConn 14 Loss
Sep 12 Arizona at BYU Under 47.5 (total) Arizona 17, BYU 28 Win
Sep 12 UTSA at Texas State Under 66.5 (total) UTSA 31, Texas State 26 Win
Sep 12 California at Syracuse Over 56.5 (total) California 21, Syracuse 18 Loss
Sep 12 Stony Brook at Ball State Under 56.5 (total) Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41 Loss
Sep 12 Western Kentucky at Georgia Georgia -40.5 Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70 Win
Sep 12 Western Kentucky at Georgia Under 55.5 (total) Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70 Loss
Sep 12 South Florida at Army Army -3.5 South Florida 28, Army 24 Loss
Sep 12 Oklahoma at Michigan Michigan +5.5 Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17 Win
Sep 12 Arizona State at Texas A&M Under 50.5 (total) Arizona State 20, Texas A&M 48 Loss
Sep 12 App State at East Carolina Under 56.5 (total) App State 27, East Carolina 24 Win
Sep 12 Wake Forest at Purdue Over 49.5 (total) Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36 Win
Sep 11 Villanova at Louisville Villanova +36.5 Villanova 13, Louisville 59 Loss
Sep 11 Villanova at Louisville Over 56.5 (total) Villanova 13, Louisville 59 Win

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 Free picks 1-2 · 33.3% win rate, n=3

Sep 12 Arkansas at Utah Under 54.5 (total) · high Arkansas 10, Utah 43 Win
Sep 12 Maryland at UConn UConn +12.5 · high Maryland 38, UConn 14 Loss
Sep 12 Oregon at Oklahoma State Oregon -22.5 · high Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39 Loss

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 High confidence 11-7-1 · 61.1% win rate, n=18

Sep 6 Washington State at Washington Washington State +23.5 Washington State 10, Washington 24 Win
Sep 5 Western Michigan at Michigan Western Michigan +27.5 Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13 Win
Sep 5 UL Monroe at Mississippi State UL Monroe +28.5 UL Monroe 13, Mississippi State 62 Loss
Sep 5 Oklahoma State at Tulsa Tulsa +14 · free Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24 Win
Sep 5 Texas State at Texas Texas State +30.5 Texas State 7, Texas 59 Loss
Sep 5 Kent State at South Carolina Kent State +36.5 Kent State 0, South Carolina 57 Loss
Sep 5 Ohio at Nebraska Ohio +23.5 Ohio 21, Nebraska 49 Loss
Sep 5 North Texas at Indiana North Texas +40.5 · free North Texas 16, Indiana 52 Win
Sep 5 Coastal Carolina at West Virginia Coastal Carolina +21.5 · free Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31 Win
Sep 5 East Carolina at Alabama East Carolina +28.5 East Carolina 10, Alabama 48 Loss
Sep 4 Toledo at Michigan State Toledo +10 Toledo 20, Michigan State 30 Push
Sep 3 UAB at Illinois UAB +28.5 UAB 23, Illinois 42 Win
Sep 3 Akron at Wake Forest Akron +24.5 Akron 16, Wake Forest 38 Win
Aug 29 Memphis at UNLV Memphis +4.5 Memphis 27, UNLV 21 Win
Aug 29 Hawai'i at Stanford Hawai'i +4 · free Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37 Loss
Aug 29 New Mexico State at Florida State New Mexico State +31.5 New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34 Win
Aug 29 NC State at Virginia NC State +4 · free Virginia 34, NC State 8 Loss
Aug 29 San José State at USC San José State +38.5 USC 42, San José State 26 (lost by 16, covered +38.5) Win
Aug 29 North Carolina vs TCU North Carolina +7.5 · free North Carolina 15, TCU 10 (won outright) Win

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 Medium confidence 2-15-1 · 11.8% win rate, n=17

Sep 7 SMU at Florida State Florida State +3 SMU 27, Florida State 24 Push
Sep 6 Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Notre Dame -20.5 Wisconsin 13, Notre Dame 41 Win
Sep 6 Louisville vs Ole Miss Ole Miss -6.5 Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41 Loss
Sep 5 Western Kentucky at Nevada Western Kentucky -2.5 Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49 Loss
Sep 5 UCLA at California California +1.5 UCLA 45, California 24 Loss
Sep 5 Central Michigan at New Mexico Central Michigan +10.5 Central Michigan 7, New Mexico 38 Loss
Sep 5 UNLV at Hawai'i Hawai'i +3.5 UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6 Loss
Sep 5 Florida Atlantic at Florida Florida Atlantic +27.5 Florida Atlantic 21, Florida 66 Loss
Sep 5 Clemson at LSU Clemson +10.5 Clemson 10, LSU 51 Loss
Sep 5 Northern Illinois at Iowa Northern Illinois +31.5 Northern Illinois 0, Iowa 40 Loss
Sep 5 Marshall at Penn State Marshall +24.5 Marshall 0, Penn State 45 Loss
Sep 5 Boise State at Oregon Oregon -24.5 Boise State 27, Oregon 34 Loss
Sep 5 Tulane at Duke Tulane +9.5 Tulane 3, Duke 17 Loss
Sep 5 Baylor vs Auburn Auburn -7 Baylor 16, Auburn 17 Loss
Sep 5 Liberty at James Madison James Madison -6.5 Liberty 13, James Madison 20 Win
Sep 5 Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh Miami (OH) +16.5 Miami (OH) 14, Pittsburgh 59 Loss
Sep 4 UTEP at Oklahoma UTEP +41.5 UTEP 0, Oklahoma 51 Loss
Sep 3 Colorado at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -6.5 Colorado 14, Georgia Tech 13 Loss

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 Low confidence 4-2 · 66.7% win rate, n=6

Sep 5 Florida International at South Florida Florida International +14 Florida International 9, South Florida 19 Win
Sep 5 Arkansas State at Memphis Memphis -10 Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42 Win
Sep 5 Missouri State at Texas A&M Missouri State +41.5 Missouri State 0, Texas A&M 50 Loss
Sep 5 Ball State at Ohio State Ohio State -50.5 Ball State 3, Ohio State 56 Win
Sep 5 Oregon State at Houston Oregon State +20.5 Oregon State 20, Houston 33 Win
Sep 4 Fresno State at USC Fresno State +22.5 Fresno State 0, USC 39 Loss

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 Free picks 4-2 · 66.7% win rate, n=6

Sep 5 Oklahoma State at Tulsa Tulsa +14 · high Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24 Win
Sep 5 North Texas at Indiana North Texas +40.5 · high North Texas 16, Indiana 52 Win
Sep 5 Coastal Carolina at West Virginia Coastal Carolina +21.5 · high Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31 Win
Aug 29 Hawai'i at Stanford Hawai'i +4 · high Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37 Loss
Aug 29 NC State at Virginia NC State +4 · high Virginia 34, NC State 8 Loss
Aug 29 North Carolina vs TCU North Carolina +7.5 · high North Carolina 15, TCU 10 (won outright) Win

Locked futures positions

Season long positions taken before week 1 and graded at season end at the number we posted then. They do not move with the market or the standings, so they live here on the record, not on the weekly boards.

College football win total positions, locked Aug 13, 2026, with the conference and championship futures we priced. Where every team stands against those totals today is on the win total standings.
NFL win totals and the Super Bowl board, including the one position we took before week 1, Miami OVER 3.5.

The conviction ledger, a separate checkn=0 in 2026

Not the panel and not the weekly board: a daily college football check that logs a pick only when four or more independent angles converge on the same side and the strongest of them has a sample of at least 150, three a day at most. It runs beside the panel, and a pick it logs is graded here on its own, never in the ledger above. No 2026 game has met the rule, so it has nothing to grade this season. The panel's picks, the product, are the ledger above.

How every pick gets graded

Every pick freezes at post time. The side, the line, and the number we played never change after we hit post.
Every pick grades against the final score at the number we posted. The closing line is shown on the game page for reference, so you can see whether we beat the market too.
Wins and misses both post within 24 hours. Same format, same weight.
The ledger is append-only. Nothing gets deleted, edited, or quietly dropped.

How the board is made

Where the board comes from

Every pick on the weekly boards comes from a three-seat analyst panel. For each game, three analysts work the same evidence pack on their own and each names a side on the spread and on the total; the pick is what survives their disagreement, printed with the vote behind it. From the college football board of Tuesday, September 29, 2026, picks publish under panel v2.5; a pick made earlier keeps the tier it carried when it locked.

A pick locks the moment it publishes, at the number it published at, and grades against that number within 24 hours of the final. A pick is high when all three analysts take its side at a captured number and at least one of them ranks it among their strongest sides of the run or grades it a bet. Nothing tops up the tier: a week can carry many highs or none, and each write-up says why its pick earned the label. A spread of 40 or more points is never above low. A tier is never a win probability or a hit rate, and the high record at the top of this page is a count of graded picks with its n, not a promise about the next one.

What about the models and the backtests?

Our models price every game, and that number goes into the panel's evidence pack as context the analysts can agree with or argue against; it is never a pick on its own. Angles are tested on five seasons of college football and then forward on the current season. The one angle that cleared our historical gate failed its 2026 forward test (47.3% under, n=131, against a 52.38% gate), and that work stays public. Backtest numbers are history, not the record above.

See the early-totals backtest and its final result →

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