Falcons at Saints: the big numbers are one night deep

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Monday night, and the board is full of numbers that run ahead of the recent games. I like a price that asks for more than the player has been giving. I took three unders and left the shiny stuff on the table.

Alvin Kamara under 37.5 rushing yards

Saints running back Alvin Kamara has a rushing line of 37.5 at DraftKings, and the under pays -111. His last five games read 36 yards, 15 yards, 11 yards, 83 yards and 14 yards. One big night clears this number, and only his most recent game, the 36, came close. His median over ten games is 27.5. Atlanta is expected to keep the ball on the ground and the clock moving, and recent meetings between these two have stayed low scoring. A shorter game means fewer Saints possessions and fewer carries to go around. I would take this at the price.

What beats it: One long run beats it by itself, like the 83 he ran for in 2025, and so does a Saints lead that hands him the ball to burn clock late.

Drake London under 78.5 receiving yards

Falcons wide receiver Drake London is posted at 78.5 receiving yards, and DraftKings has the under at -113. That number sits well above his median of 64.5 over ten games, and above the games before his 194 against Green Bay, which were 51 yards, then 29 yards. The Falcons are expected to run more than they throw, and a team that runs does not hand one receiver a second 194. I am on the under and I do not need him to be bad, only ordinary.

What beats it: Atlanta falling behind early and throwing on every down would push his targets up, and one deep ball can erase this whole case in a single play.

Michael Penix Jr. under 1.5 passing touchdowns

Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is the healthy starter, and FanDuel has the under 1.5 passing touchdowns at -135. It is a steep price and I will pay it. His last five games produced 1, 0, 1, 3 and 1 touchdowns through the air, and his median is one. Last week against Green Bay he threw one. The total is 47.5 and the Falcons are expected to run, which keeps touchdowns on the ground and in the hands of the running backs. Two passing scores is the ask, and one night of three is the only time in that stretch he went past it.

What beats it: Two offenses with efficient quarterbacks in a dome can clear 48 without much trouble, and quick possessions can leave Atlanta short fields to work with, so a total that keeps drifting up toward 48.5 is the sign this goes wrong.

The one to stay away from

Falcons running back Bijan Robinson under 87.5 rushing yards, DraftKings -111, looks like the easy fade after a monster game, and I will not touch it. His last five went 194, 72, 83, 33 and 195, a range so wide that no line describes him. His median over ten games is 84.5, which sits right on top of the number. A player who lands on both edges is not something I want to pay -111 to call.

I would stand behind the Kamara and London unders because the recent games back them up. The Penix under is the one I am paying for. It is a fair price and no more than that. The rest of this board can sit untouched.

Prices as captured Monday, Oct 5 at 4:18 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.