The NFL desk. Our number is on the board.
The EL NFL Rating v3 is live: expected wins on all 32 teams, Minnesota Vikings first at 12.55 expected wins, refit nightly. The futures board runs beside it with all 32 win totals and the full Super Bowl board, our number beside the market number. One win total lean is up today, Miami OVER 3.5, locked before week 1.
The weekly board is up beside them: the week's games with the market number, our number, and our pick or our pass on the games on the board. The panel works the week twice: Wednesday evening after the first official injury report, and Friday evening after final designations; a pick locks when it posts and never changes. The market read runs all week alongside it: which of DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM hangs the different number, which charges the different price, and where the market cannot agree with itself.
From the desk
Posts, columns and research from the deskProp Desk Picks, Monday night, Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Darius Cooper under 39.5 rec yds W Darius Cooper under 3.5 rec W Tanner McKee under 5.5 rush yds W Ryan Flournoy over 32.5 rec yds W Board: 4-0, +3.43 units The Prop Desk this week:...
Our NFL power ratings after Week 7. The Vikings, 49ers and Bills hold the top tier. Biggest climb: the Buccaneers, up 6 to No. 22. The full board is on the site.
Buck's Primetime PropsDallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: fade the Eagles receivers. Three props on a Monday night board with a new quarterback in Philadelphia, and a handful of tempting props I leave alone.
Buck's Primetime PropsChiefs at Seahawks: the board is dressed for the highlight reel. A walk through the whole Sunday night board, the unders I will take at the posted price and the numbers I will not touch.
The NFL surfaces
What is live now and what starts with the seasonGames
LiveThe weekly board: the week's games with the market spread and total, our number beside it, and the analyst panel's Picks and Leans on the games on the board. Picks land Wednesday evening after the first official injury report and Friday evening after final designations.
Open Games →Prop Desk
LiveOne NFL game in each time slot and a board of its player props, read by members before kickoff. Once the game is final the graded board opens to everyone. The desk keeps its own record on the page, beside Buck's free column.
Open Prop Desk →Power ratings
LiveThe EL NFL Rating v3: expected wins on all 32 teams, Minnesota Vikings first at 12.55 expected wins, refit nightly on every completed game. Opponent adjusted game margins, validated against our prior model in four straight held out seasons.
Open Power ratings →Futures board
LiveAll 32 win totals and the full Super Bowl board, with our number beside the market number. Our win total positions were locked before week 1 and grade at season end.
Open Futures board →What this section is, stated plainly
Our NFL number exists and it is published. The EL NFL Rating v3 puts expected wins on all 32 teams, and the futures board runs that number against every posted win total, the same shape the CFB side runs (our number against every posted total). A lean next to a team means we have a view on that team's win total. The rating is a season long anchor, not a spread picker, and the ratings page says so with the numbers. The weekly layer is up now too: the games board runs our number against the captured market spread on the games on the board, with picks landing Wednesday and Friday evenings and a pass stated plainly wherever our number sits on the market. Player props run on the Prop Desk, one game in each time slot, with its own record on its page.
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