The NFL desk. Our number is on the board.
The EL NFL Rating v3 is live: expected wins on all 32 teams, Detroit first at 10.76. The futures board runs beside it with all 32 win totals and the full Super Bowl board, every book side by side. One win total lean clears the bar today, Miami OVER 3.5, and it is the widest gap on the board.
The weekly board is up beside them: every game with the market number, our number, and our lean or our pass on every priced game, with free picks released through the week (up to three, one at a time on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday mornings, each stamped the moment it drops). The market read runs all week alongside it: which book hangs the different number, which book charges the different price, and where the market cannot agree with itself.
The NFL surfaces
What is live now and what starts with the seasonPower ratings
LiveThe EL NFL Rating v3: expected wins on all 32 teams, Detroit first at 10.76. Opponent adjusted game margins, validated against our prior model in four straight held out seasons.
Open Power ratings →Futures board
LiveAll 32 win totals and the full Super Bowl board, every book side by side, with our number beside the market number. One lean clears the bar today: Miami OVER 3.5.
Open Futures board →Games
LiveThe weekly board: every game with the market number, our number beside it, and our lean on every priced game. Free picks are released, not ranked: up to three a week, one at a time on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday mornings, stamped when they drop. The rest with membership.
Open Games →Props
In the labNightly prop line capture has run since Aug 8, building the graded history a validated prop read requires. The board ships only when that history clears our bar.
Open Props →What this section is, stated plainly
Our NFL number exists and it is published. The EL NFL Rating v3 puts expected wins on all 32 teams, and the futures board runs that number against every posted win total, the same shape the CFB side runs (our number against every posted total). A lean appears next to a team only when the gap to the line beats the model's own error, which is why one lean is up and not fifteen. The rating is a season long anchor, not a spread picker, and the ratings page says so with the numbers. The weekly layer is up now too: the games board runs our number against the captured market spread on every priced game, with up to three free picks released through the week, one at a time on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday mornings, and a pass stated plainly wherever our number sits on the market. Nightly prop line capture keeps building the graded history the prop board requires.
Founding access covers the NFL board
$24/mo, founder rate locked for life. Subscribers get every pick first, the full lean board across CFB and NFL, and the tools. Up to three NFL picks go free each week, released one at a time and stamped; only a high-confidence lock can go free, so some weeks release fewer.
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