Bills at Rams: the board is paying for the shootout

I am up 4.5 units on the run. This week alone I am up 3.8 units, and I will not pretend the board owes me more.

Monday night, Bills at Rams, and the board is dressed for a party. The total sits at 54.5 and the Los Angeles Rams are laying 3.5 to the Buffalo Bills, so every number on the sheet assumes two quarterbacks throwing freely into a Bills defense that ranks 30th by opponent EPA per play. The Rams defense ranks third by the same measure. I have seen this invitation before, and I am sending regrets on most of it.

Start under center. Matthew Stafford, the Rams quarterback, carries a passing yards line of 278.5 after going over it in four of his last five, so that number is honest and I leave it alone. His touchdown line of 2.5 is one I stay away from, because his results swing too wide to trust either side. Josh Allen, the Bills quarterback, sits at 244.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. The yards are fair. The touchdown number is the one I want.

Backs next. James Cook, the Bills running back, is set at 74.5 rushing yards and Kyren Williams, the Rams running back, at 68.5. Both lines look about right to me. Ty Johnson, another Bills running back, is the quiet one on the sheet: he has gone over 1.5 receptions in nine of his last ten, and the board knows it.

Receivers and tight ends are where the sheet gets shaded for the highlight reel. Khalil Shakir, a Bills wide receiver, sits at 46.5 receiving yards with a ten-game median of 44, which is fair, and I pass. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, both Rams tight ends, carry lines of 23.5 and 16.5 yards, and the board is not asking much of either. Dawson Knox, a Bills tight end, is down at 10.5 yards.

Touchdown scorers are where a bear gets his laughs. Davis Allen, a Rams tight end, has scored in none of his last ten games and still gets a number that reads like a lottery ticket. Everybody loves a score. I do not love paying for one.

Josh Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns

Josh Allen, the Bills quarterback, carries a passing touchdown line of 1.5 and the under pays -115 at BetMGM. His last five games read 1, 0, 3, 2, 3, newest first, so his two most recent both stayed under, and his median over the last ten is 1 with the under in six of them. He needs two scoring throws to beat this against a Rams defense that ranks third by opponent EPA per play, in a road game where a long drive can end in a field goal or on his own legs. I take the under here and nothing else on his page.

What beats it: A shootout where the Bills defense, ranked 30th by opponent EPA per play, cannot get a stop and Allen has to throw on every series would beat it. The final injury designations for both teams were not confirmed, and several defenders carry questionable tags, so the shape of the game can change late.

Dalton Kincaid under 55.5 receiving yards

Dalton Kincaid, the Bills tight end, has a line of 55.5 receiving yards and the under is -105 at BetMGM. His last five read 7, 38, 95, 130, 83, newest first, and the line is paying for the 130 and the 95, not for the 7 and the 38 he put up most recently. His median over the last ten is 39.5 and the under hit in seven of them. Against the third-ranked Rams defense by opponent EPA per play, I will take the number that rewards his ordinary nights.

What beats it: A game where Buffalo trails early and throws on nearly every down, with the Rams defense forced to cover the middle of the field, would push him back toward the 95 and 130 games. He has cleared this line in three of his last five.

Davante Adams under 4.5 receptions

Davante Adams, the Rams wide receiver, has a receptions line of 4.5 and the under is -125 at BetMGM. His last five read 4, 7, 8, 3, 4, newest first, with the under in three of them, and across his last ten the under hit seven times with a median of 4. Puka Nacua, the Rams wide receiver, carries a ten-game median of 9 catches on a line of 7.5, so the target tree has one trunk. I am happy to take Adams on the catches and leave his yards alone.

What beats it: If the Bills sit two defenders on Nacua all night and the ball moves to Adams, he gets to five catches on volume alone, which he has done twice in his last five. A tight game that forces the Rams to throw on every down does the same.

James Cook under 10.5 receiving yards

James Cook, the Bills running back, has a receiving yards line of 10.5 and the under is -111 at BetMGM. His last five read 8, 0, 4, 12, 24, newest first, so the 24 is the oldest and the three most recent are 8, 0 and 4. His median over the last ten is 4.5 and the under hit in seven of them. The Bills use him to carry the ball, and a line of 10.5 asks for more than his ordinary catch.

What beats it: A Bills deficit that forces Allen into short throws to the backfield would beat it, and he has cleared this line twice in his last five. One long screen is enough to cash the over by itself.

Keon Coleman under 3.5 receptions

Keon Coleman, the Bills wide receiver, has a receptions line of 3.5 and the under is -164 at DraftKings, a steep price I will pay. His last five read 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, newest first, so he has been at one catch in three of them, and across his last ten the under hit eight times with a median of 1.5. A number of 3.5 is priced off the two six-catch games, and the price is only steep because the sheet knows it.

What beats it: Another six-catch night would beat it, and he has had two of those in his last five. A game where Buffalo chases points for four quarters and spreads the ball to its receivers is the way that happens.

Staying away

Puka Nacua over 93.5 receiving yards: Puka Nacua, the Rams wide receiver, has a line of 93.5 receiving yards and his last five run 125, 74, 165, 56, 111, which goes over in three and under in two. His ten-game median of 118 clears the line, so the case for the over is real, but the range runs from a 56 to a 165 and the price on the over is one I will not pay when a 74 or a 56 sinks it. With two games this season in the log, I will watch this one from the bar.

Matthew Stafford over 278.5 passing yards: Matthew Stafford went over 278.5 passing yards in four of his last five with 317, 390, 327 and 374, and the fifth game was a 155. The number is fair, and a Rams team that holds a lead will throw less late, so I see no edge on either side and want no part of the over.

Davante Adams under 62.5 receiving yards: Davante Adams’s last five run 32, 137, 195, 26, 89, a spread so wide that the line of 62.5 says nothing, and his ten-game median of 64.5 sits right on top of it. He can post a 26 or a 195 against any defense. I will not guess which one shows up on a Monday night.

Kyren Williams anytime touchdown: Kyren Williams, the Rams running back, has scored in four of his last five games, and that is exactly why the price is steep. He scored twice in his most recent game and did not score the game before it, so the price asks me to pay for a recent burst. A score that is already built into a steep price is not a bargain, so I pass.

Josh Allen anytime touchdown: Josh Allen has scored in four of his last five games, with 1, 2, 2, 2 and a 0, and the price on him is steep for a quarterback. A rushing score is already part of why I like his passing touchdown under, so I will not pay twice for one idea.

Matthew Stafford under 2.5 passing touchdowns: Matthew Stafford threw 0, 2, 4, 0, 3 touchdown passes in his last five, which is zero twice and four once, and his ten-game median of 2.5 sits right on the line. The under is the side I would sooner be on, but the price is steep and the range of results is wide enough to embarrass any of us.

That is the board. I take the unders where the sheet is paying for the shootout and I pass on the glamour. If this one turns into a track meet, I will have been on the wrong side of several props at once, and I would rather be wrong in the open than right quietly.

Prices as captured Monday, Oct 12 at 4:08 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.