Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: the unders the board forgot

I am up 4.5 units on the season and up 3.8 units this week. Plain numbers, no victory lap.

Everybody loves a primetime board. I read it like a tax form. Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons carries a total of 43.5, and a number that low should make you look twice at every receiving line written as if the ball will be in the air all night.

Quarterbacks first. Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons quarterback, has a passing yards line of 218.5 and a median of 222 over his last ten, so the number sits right where he lives. Tyler Huntley, the Ravens quarterback, is at 169.5 with a median of 66.5 over the six games in his log. That is a wide gap, and a gap that wide is usually a warning, not a gift. I am not taking a quarterback prop today.

Backs. Derrick Henry, the Ravens running back, has a rushing line of 78.5, a median of 97 over his last ten and an over in seven of those ten. That one is fair to slightly low and I leave it alone. Bijan Robinson, the Falcons running back, is the name on every ticket, and the touchdown number on him is dressed for the highlight reel.

Receivers and tight ends. Rashod Bateman, the Ravens wide receiver, sits at 17.5 receiving yards with a median of 11.5 over his last ten and an under in six of them. It looks fair. Kyle Pitts, the Falcons tight end, has a 24.5 receiving line, a median of 52 over his last ten and an over in six of them, which looks low enough to be bait, so I stay off it. Olamide Zaccheaus, the Falcons wide receiver, is at 0.5 receptions with an over in seven of his last ten, and that is just a number that is correct.

Touchdown scorers. Austin Hooper, the Falcons tight end, has scored in two of his last ten, and the long prices on the depth chart are a lottery I do not play. Where the board is shaded is the middle of the receiving and rushing market, the second and third options with a line built off one big night. That is where I am working.

Zay Flowers under 5.5 receptions

Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers is set at 5.5 receptions, and I will take the under at -120 with BetMGM. His last five games read 8, 5, 5, 4 and 4 catches, which is under this number in four of five, and the median over his last ten is 5. The eight in his latest game is the outlier that built the line. A total of 43.5 is a low ceiling for volume, and he has cleared 5.5 once in his last five.

What beats it: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is not ruled out and his Friday status was not verified, so a start by him would hand Flowers a very different target load than the one I am pricing. A game where Baltimore trails and throws all night also gets him back to eight catches.

Drake London under 5.5 receptions

Falcons wide receiver Drake London has a receptions line of 5.5, and the under pays +121 at DraftKings. His last five games went 5, 9, 4, 2 and 4, under in four of five, with a median of 4.5 over his last ten. The nine came in week three, his biggest night of the stretch, and that one game is what the line is still paying for. A low total leaves less room for that kind of volume.

What beats it: A script where Atlanta falls behind early and has to throw on every down would push him past 5.5 on volume alone. The nine-catch game in week three shows the ceiling is real when the Falcons are chasing.

Jahan Dotson under 20.5 receiving yards

Falcons wide receiver Jahan Dotson is at 20.5 receiving yards, and the under is -110 at DraftKings. His last five games went 54, 11, 11, 19 and 0, under in four of five, and the median over his last ten is 11 with an under in eight of them. He is a third option on a team that gives its yards to London and Pitts. One 54-yard night moved the line, not a trend.

What beats it: One deep catch ends this bet by itself. He had 54 in his latest game, and if Atlanta’s top targets are bracketed he becomes the open man and runs past 20.5 in a single play.

Mark Andrews under 30.5 receiving yards

Ravens tight end Mark Andrews has a receiving line of 30.5, and I will take the under at -114 with FanDuel. His last five games went 27, 24, 49, 49 and 14, under in three of five, and the median over his last ten is 25.5 with an under in seven of them. The line sits above the middle of what he actually does. Seven tight-end games in ten that did not get there is a better read than the two in the forties.

What beats it: Two of his last five games landed at 49, so he can get there when the seam targets come his way. Any Baltimore plan built on short throws to the middle of the field lifts him over 30.5.

Justice Hill under 11.5 rushing yards

Ravens running back Justice Hill has a rushing line of 11.5, and the under is -110 at BetMGM. His last five games went 3, 33, 6, 18 and 0, under in three of five, and the median over his last ten is 3 with an under in seven of them. He is the change of pace behind Derrick Henry, and the 33 is a single game that the median says to ignore.

What beats it: A Ravens lead that sends Hill into the fourth quarter with extra carries would put him over 11.5 quickly. The 33 and the 18 in his last five show how a handful of carries gets him there.

Staying away

Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown: Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has scored in seven of his last ten games, including two in each of his last two, and the price is steep for exactly that reason. I am not paying a steep number for a touchdown that the whole room has already circled, least of all in a game with a total of 43.5.

Derrick Henry under 1.5 receptions: Ravens running back Derrick Henry has stayed under 1.5 catches in eight of his last ten, and his last five went 2, 1, 3, 1 and 0. I like the under in principle, but the price on it is steep and two of those five, the 2 and the 3, would have sunk it. No price worth taking.

Brian Robinson over 35.5 rushing yards: Falcons running back Brian Robinson ran for 62, 50, 51, 31 and 4 in his last five against a line of 35.5, over in three of them, yet his median over the last ten is 21.5 with an over in only three of ten. The recent games and the long view disagree, and I do not bet a disagreement.

Michael Penix Jr. over 218.5 passing yards: Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has gone 223, 256, 175, 177 and 221 against a line of 218.5, a wide spread between his best and worst of the five. The line sits in the middle of that range, and a total of 43.5 gives me no reason to pay for the over.

Tyler Huntley over 28.5 rushing yards: Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley has run for 60 in one of his last five games and for 2 in another, against a line of 28.5. Wildly uneven games are not a number to bet, and the narrative of a scrambling backup is exactly the kind of story I distrust at this line.

Five unders, and not one of them needs a big night from anybody to cash. The bear takes the number everyone is too busy admiring to read. The prices were captured a while back, so use the number you can actually get, and walk away if it has moved.

Prices as captured Saturday, Oct 10 at 12:39 PM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.