Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: I am under on the noise

Up 0.6 units on the running tally. I will not dress that up and I will not spend it early.

Everybody wants to talk about fireworks on a Thursday night. I want to talk about what the fireworks cost. Dallas is laying 8 at home to a Buccaneers team that is 0-4 and turns to Jalon Daniels, a rookie quarterback, and the total is 48.5. That setup invites the whole room to pile onto the Cowboys offense, and a good part of the board is shaded to match.

Start with the passer. Dak Prescott, the Cowboys quarterback, has a touchdown line of 2.5 that I will come back to below. His yards line of 266.5 is a different animal: over in seven of his last ten with a median of 286.5, which makes it about fair and not worth a fight.

Backs next. Bucky Irving, the Buccaneers running back, is at 51.5 rushing yards with a ten-game median of 60.5 and the over in seven of ten, so that one is not shaded for anybody’s highlights and I leave it alone. Sean Tucker, the Buccaneers running back, scored in five of his last ten, the kind of middling history that earns a long price on a touchdown. The Cowboys side is where the shading lives: Javonte Williams, the Cowboys running back, and Tyler Goodson, a Cowboys running back, both carry rushing lines I think are too tall.

Receivers and tight ends. Chris Godwin Jr., a Buccaneers wide receiver, is at 29.5 receiving yards with a ten-game median of 35.5 and the over in seven of ten, a fair number to my eye. Emeka Egbuka, a Buccaneers wide receiver, is at 35.5 with five overs and five unders in ten and a median of 30. That is dead even and I have no opinion. Ted Hurst III, a Buccaneers wide receiver, sits at 20.5 and has gone over in all four of his games on the sheet, so that one is shaded low, not high. Cade Otton, the Buccaneers tight end, is at 28.5 with a median of 29.5, right where it belongs. Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys tight end, is the one receiving number I think the board has too high.

Touchdown scorers are where the highlight reel does its drinking. The short prices go to the names everybody knows, and that is where I get off the train.

Dak Prescott under 2.5 passing touchdowns

I will take Dak Prescott under 2.5 passing touchdowns at -205 on FanDuel. It is a heavy price and I am paying it because of the games: he threw 1, 1, 4, 2 and 0 touchdown passes in his last five, under 2.5 in four of them, and he is under in nine of his last ten with a median of 1.5. Dallas is laying 8 to a Buccaneers team that is 0-4 and starting Daniels, a rookie quarterback with one start behind him. A team ahead by that much spends its fourth quarter handing the ball off, and the touchdowns it does score do not all have to come through the air.

What beats it: Daniels turns the ball over early, Dallas starts drives on short fields and Prescott gets to three touchdown throws before halftime, the way he got four in one of his last five. Nothing is settled yet on final inactives, practice designations or the roof, and any of those could change who is on the field and how the game is played.

Javonte Williams under 69.5 rushing yards

I will take Javonte Williams under 69.5 rushing yards at -110 on DraftKings. He ran for 62, 98, 30, 41 and 54 in his last five, and only the 98 got over this number. The line sits well above his ten-game median of 60.5, and he is under in seven of his last ten. The Cowboys are a big favorite against a winless team, and I am not paying a premium for a game script that everyone on the board has already priced into the yards.

What beats it: Dallas builds a big lead early and hands him the ball for the whole second half, which turns the median into the 98 he ran for once in his last five. A game that stays close also keeps him on the field for the early downs where he does his work.

Jake Ferguson under 27.5 receiving yards

I will take Jake Ferguson under 27.5 receiving yards at -113 on DraftKings. The Cowboys tight end had 11, 23, 43, 6 and 5 in his last five, under this line in four of them, and he is under in seven of his last ten with a median of 17.5. The line is ten above that median. A home favorite against a rookie quarterback does not need its tight end to carry the passing game, and his recent catches have run small: 3, 3, 4, 2 and 1.

What beats it: The game turns into a shootout and Dallas throws deep into the fourth quarter, or he finds the end zone area on a crossing route and runs after the catch. His best of the last five was 43, so one bigger night is all the over needs.

Tez Johnson under 1.5 receptions

I will take Tez Johnson under 1.5 receptions at -155 on BetMGM. The Buccaneers wide receiver caught 2, 1, 1, 0 and 1 in his last five, and only one of them cleared this line. He is under in eight of his last ten with a median of 1. Tampa Bay is 0-4 with a rookie quarterback who has one start behind him, and that is not an offense that has been spreading the ball around. The price is steep, but the games back it up.

What beats it: Tampa Bay trails early and has to throw on almost every snap, and a short-area role turns into two or three quick catches. A trailing team throws more, and in that game this number is within easy reach.

Tyler Goodson under 16.5 rushing yards

I will take Tyler Goodson under 16.5 rushing yards at -110 on DraftKings. The Cowboys back ran for 12, 22, 3, 9 and 0 in his last five, under this line in four of them, and he is under in nine of his last ten with a median of 1.5. That median is nowhere near the line. He has only two games this season, so I am not pretending the sample is deep, but a line this far above his usual night is the kind of number I like to fade.

What beats it: Dallas takes a big lead and gives its second back most of the fourth quarter, so a handful of late carries stacks up to more than the line. The 22 in his last five shows what a busy night looks like.

Staying away

CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown: CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys wide receiver, is priced close to even money to score, and that price is the story talking. A touchdown is the noisiest thing a receiver does, and I will not pay up for a big name on a primetime stage when the number already carries all the narrative.

Javonte Williams anytime touchdown: Javonte Williams has found the end zone in most of his recent games, and the price on him is steep because it treats that as a rule. Touchdowns are the noisiest thing a back does, and I will not lay that much to stand with everybody else. I like him better as an under on yards.

George Pickens over 61.5 receiving yards: George Pickens, the Cowboys wide receiver, has a ten-game median of 57.5 against a line of 61.5. The line has already paid full price for his two best recent games, and the three before them were small. I am not buying the over at that number.

Dak Prescott over 266.5 passing yards: Dak Prescott ran from 70 to 335 across his last five, over this number in three of them. That is too wide a range to call, and I already like him under on touchdowns, so taking the yards over would be arguing with myself.

Kenny Gainwell over 1.5 receptions: Kenny Gainwell, the Buccaneers running back, caught 2, 2, 3, 1 and 4 in his last five and is over this line in nine of his last ten. Everyone can see that, so the price is steep, and I do not pay a steep price for the obvious.

That is the board. My weakness is plain: an under needs the game to stay ugly, and Dallas can make it pretty all by itself. I would still rather be early on a tired number than late to the party.

Prices as captured Thursday, Oct 8 at 4:08 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.