Cowboys at Packers: the unders hiding behind the big names

Up 5.4 units going into this board. A number like that makes a bear hungry, not brave.

Cowboys at Packers is the Sunday night game, with the Packers favored by 1 and a total of 53.5. A lot of the prop sheet has been priced as if both offenses will throw all night and nobody will ever sit on a lead.

Quarterbacks first. Dak Prescott, the Cowboys quarterback, has a passing yards line of 272.5, and Jordan Love, the Packers quarterback, is at 274.5. Both are lines I leave alone, because I see nothing there worth a bet from me. Love’s passing touchdown line of 1.5 is another one to leave alone, a number he has cleared so often that I will not stand in front of it.

Receivers are where the big names get stretched. CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys wide receiver, is at 80.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receptions. George Pickens, the Cowboys wide receiver, has a line of 70.5 yards, and across his last ten he is five over and five under with a median of 57.5. Matthew Golden, a Packers wide receiver, sits at 66.5, four over and six under in his last ten with a median of 56.5. Both medians sit below the number, which tells me the line is paying for the highlight. Tucker Kraft, the Packers tight end, is at 4.5 receptions with a median of 4.5, and that one is fair.

Backs and tight ends are where I go to work. The numbers there are set off a few big games, and the middle games tell a quieter story. The touchdown sheet is a different animal: the short prices sit on Javonte Williams and MarShawn Lloyd, and the long ones are a lottery I leave alone. Christian Watson, a Packers wide receiver, has been scoring often lately, and I do not chase that.

Jake Ferguson under 25.5 receiving yards

Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys tight end, is at under 25.5 receiving yards, -110 at DraftKings. His last five, newest first, read 19, 11, 23, 43 and 6, so only one of them cleared the number. Over his last ten he is under eight times with a median of 17.5. A big total lifts a lot of lines on the sheet, but it does not move a tight end with that median up to 25.5 on its own. I will take the under at this price.

What beats it: Dallas trailing by two scores and throwing on every down would pile up short catches, and one broken tackle after the catch would put him over by itself, and the 43 was his only game over 25.5 in the last five.

MarShawn Lloyd under 42.5 rushing yards

MarShawn Lloyd, the Packers running back, is at under 42.5 rushing yards, -113 at FanDuel. His last five, newest first, ran 31, 13, 11, 20 and 37, so he stayed under this number in every one of them, with a median of 20. His best game still came up short. A line that far above his median is generous for a Packers side favored by only 1, and I will take the under.

What beats it: The log holds only five games for him, so a workload bigger than anything shown would not be visible, and a Packers lead that lets him carry the fourth quarter would get him there.

Javonte Williams under 67.5 rushing yards

Javonte Williams, the Cowboys running back, is at under 67.5 rushing yards, -115 at BetMGM. His last five, newest first, were 45, 62, 98, 30 and 41, so one of them cleared the line, and in his last ten he is under eight times with a median of 56.5. He found the end zone in four of his last five, and that scoring is what holds this number up, yet the yards did not follow. I will take the under.

What beats it: A rough weather night at Lambeau that turns the game to the ground would raise his carries. A Cowboys lead that they run out the clock on would also help him.

Tyler Goodson under 9.5 rushing yards

Tyler Goodson, a Cowboys running back, is at under 9.5 rushing yards, -110 at DraftKings. His last five, newest first, read 0, 12, 22, 3 and 9, and in his last ten he is under eight times with a median of 1.5. That median rests on seven Indianapolis games from last season, when the typical game gave him almost nothing. As a Cowboy he has gone 0, 12 and 22, newest first, and a line of 9.5 asks for a real carry or two. I will take the under at this price.

What beats it: A blowout that sends the Cowboys into clock-killing mode and spreads the carries to him would change the night, and a heavier workload for him would clear this number with room to spare.

Staying away

Dak Prescott over 272.5 passing yards: Dak Prescott went 316, 335, 276, 279 and 175, newest first, over in four of the five, so the history points at the over. But the books cannot agree on his line, and I do not pay to guess which one is right when the lines sit that far apart.

Christian Watson anytime touchdown: Christian Watson scored in four of his last five, with 2, 0, 1, 1 and 2 newest first, and in seven of his last ten. A bear does not chase a touchdown run after it has already happened, and the recent form is all the case there is.

CeeDee Lamb over 80.5 receiving yards: CeeDee Lamb ran 9, 189, 112, 153 and 44, newest first, and his median across ten games is 81, which sits right on the line. A range from 9 to 189 is a coin I will not flip for anyone, and the name is doing a lot of the work here.

Jordan Love under 1.5 passing touchdowns: Jordan Love threw two touchdowns in each of his last five games, so the under asks me to bet against a very steady pattern. That is tempting for a skeptic, but a run that clean tells me not to fight it, and I will not stand in front of it.

Javonte Williams anytime touchdown: Javonte Williams scored 1, 3, 1, 0 and 2 touchdowns, newest first, and found the end zone in eight of his last ten. He is a fine back, but the price is steep, and a short number on a touchdown prop is exactly the narrative I distrust.

That is the sheet. My thinnest spot is Tyler Goodson, a back with three games this season. The rest I will stand behind.

Prices as captured Sunday, Oct 18 at 4:08 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.