Seahawks at Broncos: fading the numbers built for the highlight reel

Up 3.7 units going into this board, and I am not about to get loose with it.

Everybody wants a shootout on a Thursday night, and the board is happy to sell one. I am not buying. The total is 40.5 and Seattle is laying 2.5, which is the number of a tight, ugly night, yet a lot of the prop lines are priced like a night full of fireworks.

Start with the passers. Sam Darnold, the Seahawks quarterback, has a passing yards line of 220.5 and he has gotten over it in one of his last five. Bo Nix, the Broncos quarterback, has a rushing yards line of 14.5 that looks small, and he has been under it in all of his last five. Those are my two on the quarterbacks.

Running backs next. George Holani, the Seahawks running back, has a rushing line of 14.5 and a median of 9.5 over his last ten, under in seven of them, so that board looks fair to me and I leave it alone. The backs with the real swing are Emanuel Wilson and RJ Harvey, and you will find them in the stay-aways below.

Receivers and tight ends are where the shading is. Cooper Kupp, the Seahawks wide receiver, has a receiving line of 21.5, over in six of his last ten with a median of 32, so that one is fair and I have nothing to say. Evan Engram, the Broncos tight end, sits on the same 21.5 with a median of 20, also fair. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks wide receiver, is the name on every slate, and the number knows it. The two Denver receivers I take under are Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle, because the names are bigger than the yards.

Touchdown scorers I leave to the people who like paying a price for a prayer.

Sam Darnold under 220.5 passing yards

Sam Darnold, the Seahawks quarterback, has a passing yards line of 220.5 and the under is -113 at DraftKings. His last five read 195, 168, 379, 13 and 202, so he got over this number once and that was a single big game. The context around him is sacks, turnovers and a Denver pass rush that has been busy, on a short week in the altitude. That is not a recipe for a big passing night. The median of his last ten is 196.5, well under the line.

What beats it: A Denver secondary missing Surtain and Hufanga can allow explosive plays, and one or two of those would put him over this number quickly. A Denver defensive back’s designation is not final and the inactive list could still change the picture before kickoff.

Bo Nix under 14.5 rushing yards

Bo Nix, the Broncos quarterback, has a rushing yards line of 14.5 and the under is -107 at DraftKings. His last five went 10, 10, 7, 6 and 2, which is under in all five, and the median of his last ten is 10. On a short week at altitude I want a quarterback saving his legs, and nothing in his games asks me to pay for scrambles. The number is a touch higher than anything he has hit lately.

What beats it: A game where Seattle’s pass rush pushes him out of the pocket again and again, or one where Denver is chasing and lets him keep the ball on designed runs, gives him the carries he needs. A handful of scrambles in a single drive beats it.

Courtland Sutton under 31.5 receiving yards

Courtland Sutton, the Broncos wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 31.5 and the under is -113 at FanDuel. His last five read 18, 4, 46, 25 and 11, so he cleared this once, and the median of his last ten is 21.5. Denver is playing a game with a total of 40.5 and an offense that has been inefficient, so the yards have to come from somewhere and he has not been the one collecting them.

What beats it: Denver trailing and throwing its way through the fourth quarter would give him volume, and one deep catch can carry him past this number the way his 46 did. A Seattle defense that is short of bodies could also give him room underneath.

Jaylen Waddle under 47.5 receiving yards

Jaylen Waddle, the Broncos wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 47.5 and the under is -110 at DraftKings. His last five read 19, 35, 10, 138 and 2, so one huge game is carrying the average and the other four sit at 35 or below. The median of his last ten is 30.5, far from this number. The line is built for the name, and the games say something much smaller.

What beats it: Another game like the 138 would beat it, and one long catch is enough. A Denver offense that has to throw from behind, with Seattle’s defense short of players, hands him the volume that one big game needed.

Staying away

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards: Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 102, 76, 128, 155 and 122 in his last five, so the line is sized right for the player and the number already knows who he is. A low scoring game on a short week gives me no reason to pay for the over, and no reason to fade him either. I leave it alone.

RJ Harvey over 3.5 receptions: RJ Harvey caught 0, 10, 6, 4 and 4 in his last five, a range wide enough that one quiet game would make the line look foolish. A zero sits in the same five as a 10, and I do not want to guess which version of him shows up.

Emanuel Wilson over 66.5 rushing yards: Emanuel Wilson ran for 61, 81, 14, 92 and 3 in his last five, which is a spread from almost nothing to a monster game. A number in the middle of that is a coin I do not want to call, and Seattle’s backfield is shaky enough that I stay out.

Bo Nix under 199.5 passing yards: Bo Nix threw for 123, 214, 186, 288 and 131 in his last five, a 288 sitting in the same five as a 123. The line is almost exactly his median, so there is nothing shaded to take, and I would rather save the under for the rushing number.

That is the board. I take the unders where the games back me and I stay out where the range is too wide to trust.

Prices as captured Thursday, Oct 15 at 4:09 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.