Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: fade the Eagles receivers

Up 5.8 units going into Monday’s board. This week is minus 2.9 units through the last board.

Monday night, Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys are a 4.5 point road favorite and the total sits at 43.5. Jalen Hurts, the Eagles quarterback, is on injured reserve with blood clots, so Tanner McKee, also an Eagles quarterback, starts for a 2-4 team that just lost 25-14 to Carolina. Everybody loves a new quarterback story. I like to read the numbers first.

Quarterbacks first. Dak Prescott, the Cowboys quarterback, has a passing yards line of 266.5 and went over it in four of his last five, with 258, 316, 335, 276 and 279. That number is fair and I will not argue with it. His touchdown line is different: 1.5, and he has thrown exactly one in four straight games. McKee has a rushing line of 5.5 and a passing yards line of 196.5, and I do not trust a thin sample either way.

Backs next. Saquon Barkley, the Eagles running back, carries a rushing line of 68.5 and has gone 8, 82, 9, 83 and 106 in his last five. That swing tells me nothing about Monday. Javonte Williams, the Cowboys running back, has found the end zone in four of his last five, and the touchdown market charges for it.

Receivers and tight ends. CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 80.5. George Pickens, a Cowboys wide receiver, has one of 62.5. Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys tight end, has a receptions line of 2.5, with five games over and five under in his last ten. Dallas Goedert, the Eagles tight end, has a yards line of 49.5 against a median of 35.5 over his last ten, which looks a little high to me. Ryan Flournoy, a Cowboys wide receiver, has a yards line of 32.5 and went over in six of his last ten, so I leave that one alone.

The shaded spots are the Eagles wide receivers, where the board posted numbers for Darius Cooper and Makai Lemon with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks ruled out. That is where I live tonight.

Darius Cooper under 38.5 receiving yards

Darius Cooper, an Eagles wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 38.5 at -114 on DraftKings. His last five read 9 against Carolina, 71, 33, 0 and 26, so he has stayed under in four of five and nine of his last ten, with a median of 9. The one big game is the exception, not the rule. Philadelphia scored 14 in that loss to Carolina with McKee at quarterback, and a 4.5 point road favorite on a total of 43.5 says nobody expects fireworks from this passing game. I will take the under at this price.

What beats it: Philadelphia trailing early and throwing every down would stretch the targets, and the Eagles have already ruled out DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks, two of their wide receivers, with Barkley the running back questionable. With those two out, more passes land on Cooper, and a repeat of his 71 yard game, which came in a week Smith missed, clears this line with room to spare.

Makai Lemon under 37.5 receiving yards

Makai Lemon, an Eagles wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 37.5 at -113 on DraftKings. His last five are 19 against Carolina, 43, 27, 29 and 14, so he is under in four of five and has cleared the number once in six games, with a median of 23. His best game is the only one that got over. With McKee under center for a 2-4 team that put up 14 points last week, I do not see the volume jumping, and I would rather take the number he has been living under.

What beats it: With DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks already ruled out, a thinner Eagles receiver group could push Lemon into a bigger role, and a game script where Philadelphia chases points against a Cowboys team favored by 4.5 on the road would load him with targets. One long catch alone could cover most of this line.

Dak Prescott under 1.5 passing touchdowns

Dak Prescott, the Cowboys quarterback, has a passing touchdowns line of 1.5 at +106 on FanDuel, and plus money on an under is my kind of number. His last five read 1 against Green Bay, 1, 1, 1 and then 4, so he is under in four of five and six of his last ten, with a median of 1. Dallas is the road favorite against a 2-4 team and a total of 43.5 does not suggest a shootout. A team that gets ahead can hand it to Williams and let the clock work.

What beats it: If Dallas is short on skill players, it may have to throw the ball in scoring range, and the four touchdown night in week two shows the ceiling is real. If Philadelphia stays in the game, Dallas keeps throwing, and a second scoring pass beats this.

Staying away

Dak Prescott under 266.5 passing yards: Dak Prescott went over this passing yards number in four of his last five, with 316, 335, 276 and 279 behind a 258 at Green Bay. He has been throwing plenty, and an under here asks me to fight a trend I have no reason to fight.

CeeDee Lamb under 80.5 receiving yards: CeeDee Lamb has gone 70, 9, 189, 112 and 153 in his last five, a range far too wide to put a number on. One cold game does not erase the three big ones, and I will not fade a star on a hunch.

Saquon Barkley over 68.5 rushing yards: Saquon Barkley has run 8, 82, 9, 83 and 106 in his last five, a swing that tells me nothing about Monday. A number that has been cut that many ways is not one I want to bet over.

Javonte Williams anytime touchdown: Javonte Williams scored in four of his last five games, one, one, three, one and none, and the market has noticed. The price is steep for a touchdown that needs one short field to land, so I leave it to the crowd.

Tanner McKee under 1.5 passing touchdowns: Tanner McKee has thrown one touchdown in his most recent start and the sample is tiny. The under looks right on paper, but it comes at a steep price, and I will not pay it on one start this season for a quarterback.

George Pickens over 62.5 receiving yards: George Pickens has gone 73, 130, 75, 82 and 40 in his last five, over this line in four of them. That makes the number look earned, and a receiver the whole board is excited about is exactly the kind of thing I distrust.

Three props, all unders: two Eagles receivers in an offense that scored 14 last week, and a Prescott touchdown number he has stayed under four games running. I would stand behind the Cooper and Lemon unders at their prices and the Prescott under at plus money. I will not touch the props everybody is excited about.

Prices as captured Monday, Oct 26 at 4:09 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.