Patriots at Bears: the yards the board shaded high

Up 8.7 units going into this board, and I am in no hurry to hand any of it back on a famous name.

The Bears are -3 at home with a total of 50.5, and a total that high asks you to picture points, plenty of them. I do not buy the picture whole. This is a short week, and the prop board has the shine of a highlight reel wherever one big night set the number. I walked it from the top.

Quarterbacks first. Drake Maye, the Patriots quarterback, has a passing yards line of 248.5 against a median of 221.5 over his last ten, and that gap is where I start. Caleb Williams, the Bears quarterback, is back from a hamstring injury and sits at 244.5 with a median of 253.5, so that number is fair to a touch low and I leave him alone. His rushing line of 19.5 sits next to a median of 19, which tells me nothing.

Receivers and tight ends. A.J. Brown, the Patriots wide receiver, carries a line of 70.5 against a median of 58.5, and that gap is a tax on his name. Hunter Henry, the Patriots tight end, is at 33.5 with a median of 35.5 and five games over and five under across his last ten, so that one is fair. DeMario Douglas, a Patriots wide receiver, has 37.5 against a median of 28, with the under in six of his last ten, a little shaded but not enough for me. Kalif Raymond, a Bears wide receiver, is at 25.5 with a median of 30, and Cole Kmet, a Bears tight end, is at 8.5 with a median of 10.5. Both of those lines look fair. Colston Loveland, a Bears tight end, and Luther Burden III, a Bears wide receiver, get their own words further down.

Backs and touchdown scorers. D’Andre Swift, the Bears running back, and Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots running back, are both on my card, one under and one over, because their lines miss their medians in opposite directions. TreVeyon Henderson, a Patriots running back, has a consensus rushing line of 22.5, though the books I read post it a couple of yards higher, at 24.5 to 25.5. His median is 26 and he has gone over 22.5 in seven of his last ten, so I admire the over but leave it alone. The touchdown market is where the highlight reel lives. The names that carry the stories ask a steep price, and I would rather pay nothing.

A.J. Brown under 70.5 receiving yards

A.J. Brown is on a line of 70.5 receiving yards, and I will take the under at -113 on DraftKings. His last five games read 27, 26, 25, 68 and 95, so he stayed under this number in four of them and went over it once, and his median over the last ten is 58.5, well below the line. A name this big gets a number that remembers the 95 and forgets the three quiet nights that came after it, though the 26 was the night he sprained his ankle and the 27 was his first game back.

What beats it: New England trailing early and throwing on nearly every snap would push his targets up.

Drake Maye under 248.5 passing yards

Drake Maye is on a passing yards line of 248.5, and I will take the under at -115 on BetMGM. His last five games read 235, 374, 269, 199 and 208, which is under in three of them, and his median over the last ten is 221.5 with six of those ten under the line. The 374 is the game that drags the number up, and it was one night. Bears -3 at home on a short week points me toward a grind, not a passing festival.

What beats it: A Patriots team forced to chase Chicago through the second half would throw past 248.5 without much trouble, and the weather at Soldier Field is unchecked, so wind or calm could move every passing number on the board.

D’Andre Swift under 60.5 rushing yards

D’Andre Swift is on a line of 60.5 rushing yards, and I will take the under at -111 on DraftKings. He ran for 44, 43, 58, 84 and 45 in his last five, so he cleared this number once, in the 84 game, and the other four finished between 43 and 58. In seven of his last ten he stayed under the line, and his median over that span is 54.

What beats it: Chicago leading late would hand him a heavy load of carries, and a home team that wins a close game is exactly the kind that runs out the clock with its lead back.

Rome Odunze under 44.5 receiving yards

Rome Odunze is on a line of 44.5 receiving yards, and I will take the under at -110 on DraftKings. His last five games read 39, 40, 94, 44 and 43, so four of the five finished under 44.5 and the only big night was the 94. His median over the last ten is 44, which sits just under this line, and seven of those ten were under.

What beats it: Another game like the 94 in his last five, if one broken play or one open deep target came his way, would beat this alone, because a median this close to the line means an ordinary game barely misses it.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 42.5 rushing yards

Rhamondre Stevenson is on a line of 42.5 rushing yards, and this is the one over I will take, at -109 on DraftKings. He ran for 36, 64, 47, 22 and 43 in his last five, over this number three times, and his median over the last ten is 49 with seven of those ten over. A line sitting below his median, in a game with a spread this small, keeps him on the field and keeps the handoffs coming.

What beats it: A Chicago lead of two scores would take the ball out of his hands, and a game where TreVeyon Henderson takes a larger share of the carries would cut his yards short of 42.5.

Staying away

Caleb Williams over 244.5 passing yards: Caleb Williams is the tempting one, with 305 and 361 inside his last five, but those games run all the way from 138 to 361, and a quarterback back from a hamstring injury on a short week is a story I do not want to pay for.

Colston Loveland over 44.5 receiving yards: Colston Loveland, the Bears tight end, has a median of 56.5 that flatters the over, but his last five read 65, 19, 57, 31 and 3, a range far too wide to trust. Over in only two of those five tells me the number is a hope, not a floor.

Luther Burden III over 56.5 receiving yards: Luther Burden III, the Bears wide receiver, put up 95 in his latest game, far above the 47, 63, 61 and 32 that came before it. I do not want to pay for a repeat of one night that towers over the rest, so I let someone else chase it.

Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns: Drake Maye threw three, four and three touchdowns in his last three, after two games with none, and the median over his last ten sits right on the 1.5 line. A hot run and a cold run cancel out, so there is nothing here to take, and I refuse to chase the recent games.

A.J. Brown anytime touchdown: A.J. Brown did not score in any of his last five games and has found the end zone in three of his last ten. Plus money on a famous name is a narrative, and the facts do not back it, so I stay away from it entirely.

Four unders and one over, because the unders are where I find numbers set for the highlight reel. The weak spot in my case is the Maye number, since one big night swings it, as the 374 shows. I stand behind these at those prices and nowhere else.

Prices as captured Thursday, Oct 22 at 4:25 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.