Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: pay for the grind, not the highlight

Up 1.4 units going into Monday’s board.

Everybody wants points on a Monday night. I want a tired price and a number that got dressed up for the cameras, so I walked the board by group before I touched anything.

Quarterbacks first. Caleb Williams, quarterback of the Chicago Bears, has a passing touchdown line of 1.5 and the over has cleared it in eight of his last ten, so the line trails him and I leave it alone. Sam Darnold, quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks, is posted at 236.5 passing yards with a median of 200 over his last ten. That is the first shaded number I found.

Backs next. D’Andre Swift, the Bears running back, has a rushing line of 59.5 and a median of 56 over his last ten, which is about as honest as a number gets. Emanuel Wilson, the Seahawks running back, is posted at 19.5 rushing yards, and the over has hit in six of his last ten, so I do not fight him either.

Receivers and tight ends are mixed. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks wide receiver, is posted at 101.5 receiving yards against a median of 125 over his last ten. Rome Odunze, the Bears wide receiver, is posted at 38.5 against a median of 44, and Colston Loveland, the Bears tight end, at 41.5 against a median of 56.5. Those lines trail the players, so the honest read on the big names is no side. The shaded numbers are the small Seahawks and Bears pieces, written for a night that rarely comes, and Darnold. That is where I shop.

Touchdown scorers are the highlight reel. Those prices are built for the fan who remembers last Sunday, and I stay out of nearly all of it. The yardage and catch markets are where an old oddsmaker finds something worth taking.

Sam Darnold under 236.5 passing yards

Sam Darnold, the Seahawks quarterback, is posted at 236.5 passing yards and I will take the under at -111 with DraftKings. His last five read 257, 278, 195, 168 and 379, so one monster game bends the picture, while the median over his last ten sits at 200 and the under has landed in six of those ten. Seattle is the home favorite on a total of 46.5, and a team that leads runs the ball and bleeds the clock. Everyone loves the shootout. I would rather own the grind.

What beats it: The Bears quarterback situation is unsettled, with Williams coming off a hamstring strain and listed as a full participant on an estimated report. If the Bears score early and Seattle has to chase, Darnold throws well past this number, the way he did for 379 once.

AJ Barner under 28.5 receiving yards

AJ Barner, the Seahawks tight end, is posted at 28.5 receiving yards and I will take the under at -109 with DraftKings. His last five read 42, 16, 20, 12 and 69, with the under in three of them, and the median over his last ten is 14.5 with the under in seven. The 69 is the high mark in that run. I will pay a fair price for the version of him that shows up most nights.

What beats it: A game where Seattle trails and relies on short throws to the tight end would beat this, and his 42 in the latest game shows that kind of night is available to him.

Tory Horton under 21.5 receiving yards

Tory Horton, the Seahawks wide receiver, is posted at 21.5 receiving yards and I will take the under at -113 with DraftKings. His last five read 0, 13, 0, 6 and 48, which is the under in four of five, and the median across his last ten is 3 with the under in seven of them. A receiver whose normal night is a handful of yards does not need a bad game to lose this. He needs a hero game to win it.

What beats it: One long catch does it. A single deep ball or a busted coverage puts him past 21.5 by itself, and the 48 in his last five proves he can have that night.

Sam Roush under 8.5 receiving yards

Sam Roush, the Bears tight end, is posted at 8.5 receiving yards and I will take the under at -113 with FanDuel. His last five read 0, 0, 0, 8 and 16, which is the under in four of five, and in his seven logged games the under has hit five times with a median of 0. This is a number sitting a hair above a player who mostly does not get the ball, and I will take that gladly on a night with a total of 46.5.

What beats it: A single catch of 9 yards or more beats it, and a 16 is in his last five. A game where the Bears trail and throw short and often gets him there fast.

Cooper Kupp under 2.5 receptions

Cooper Kupp, the Seahawks wide receiver, is posted at 2.5 receptions and I will take the under at +120 with FanDuel. His last five read 2, 5, 2, 1 and 4, the under in three of five, and his last ten split five and five with a median of 3. I am getting plus money on a split record, and a Seattle team that is favored at home has no reason to throw underneath all night.

What beats it: A script where Seattle trails and Kupp becomes the underneath answer beats the under. He caught 5 in one of his last five, so a busy night is on the menu.

Staying away

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 101.5 receiving yards: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks wide receiver, went 150, 134, 102, 76 and 128 over his last five, over this number in four of them, and his median over the last ten is 125. The line trails the player, so there is no shade for me to take. I will not pay for the sequel, and I will not bet against him either.

D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown: D’Andre Swift, the Bears running back, scored 1, 2 and 1 in his last three games after two games with none. A back coming off that run is priced for the person who watched the highlights, and I do not buy a scoring run at a price that wants it to continue.

Caleb Williams over 227.5 passing yards: Caleb Williams, the Bears quarterback, put up 308, 305, 138, 269 and 257 in his last five, the over in four of them. A passer who swings from 138 to 308 is a number I cannot size, so I leave the over alone and take no side on 227.5.

Rome Odunze over 38.5 receiving yards: Rome Odunze, the Bears wide receiver, cleared 38.5 in all five of his last games with 69, 39, 40, 94 and 44, and nine of his last ten, with a median of 44. The line trails the player, but I do not chase a record this clean, so I leave it with no side.

Luther Burden III over 51.5 receiving yards: Luther Burden III, the Bears wide receiver, went 130, 95, 47, 63 and 61 over his last five, the over in four of them, but over his last ten he is split five and five with a median of 54. The line of 51.5 sits just under his median of 54, close enough that there is no side for me and I pass in both directions.

That is the board. The big names’ lines trail them, so I take no side there, and the shade sits on Darnold and the small pieces. My weakness is obvious: these unders can fall together in one shootout, and I would rather say so than hide it.

Prices as captured Monday, Nov 2 at 4:08 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.