Eagles at Commanders: unders on a 40.5 total

Up 6.4 units going into this board, and I do not trust it.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday night. The Commanders are favored by 6.5 and the total sits at 40.5. That is a low number, and I like it low. Nobody should be asking this game for fireworks, and plenty of the props still price a player as if someone will hand him a highlight.

Start with the quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels, the Commanders quarterback, has a rushing line of 36.5 that splits five over and five under across his last ten, with a median of 37. That one is fair and I leave it alone. His passing yards number is another matter, and I get to it below. Tanner McKee, the Eagles quarterback, carries a passing yards line of 201.5, and I will say why I stay off it.

Backs next. Rachaad White, a Commanders running back, is posted at 41.5 rushing yards and that looks a few yards rich to me. Jeremy McNichols, a Commanders running back, has a line of 19.5, which says plenty about how thin his piece of the work is. Austin Ekeler, a Commanders running back, shows +600 to score anytime and has no touchdown in the five games the log holds for him. I pass on that without ceremony.

Receivers and tight ends are where the shading shows. Makai Lemon, an Eagles wide receiver, and Antonio Williams, a Commanders wide receiver, both have yardage numbers sitting above where their recent games land. Marquise Brown, an Eagles wide receiver, has a line of 22.5 and a median of 26 over his last ten, five over and five under in that span, so he is priced about right. Chig Okonkwo, a Commanders tight end, sits at 3.5 receptions, five over and five under in his last ten with a median of 3.5. Fair again. Dallas Goedert, an Eagles tight end, has a receiving yards line of 45.5, five over and five under in his last ten with a median of 43. That is the number being honest.

Darius Cooper, an Eagles wide receiver, has a 26.5 line against a median of 13 across his last ten, over in only three of them. Dyami Brown, a Commanders wide receiver, carries 12.5 against a median of one, over in two of ten. Both read high. I still did not want either one, because a bit part receiver can break one long play and ruin an afternoon.

Touchdown scorers are where the highlight reel lives. Daniels at +230 to score anytime is the kind of price that sells a story about a dual threat, and he has scored in three of his last ten. A story is all it is at that number. I take my unders where the games back me up, and below are the five I will stand behind.

Jayden Daniels under 198.5 passing yards

Jayden Daniels, the Commanders quarterback, has a passing yards line of 198.5 and the best price on the under is -113 at FanDuel. His last five games read 300, 199, 96, 164 and 78, so three of the five stayed under it, and the median of his last ten is 181.5. The total is 40.5 with Washington favored by 6.5, which is a spot where the Commanders can shorten the game and take time off instead of throwing it all over the yard. One big night at the front of the log does not move me.

What beats it: Philadelphia scoring early and forcing Washington into a pass-heavy script would bury the under, and so would another 300 yard night like his latest outing. Weather at kickoff is unverified, and the final injury reports on both sides are still to come, so the picture can change before the game.

Makai Lemon under 43.5 receiving yards

Makai Lemon, an Eagles wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 43.5 and the under pays -113 at FanDuel. His last five games read 67, 19, 43, 27 and 29, so four of the five finished under, and he is under in six of the seven games in his log with a median of 27. The one big game is the latest one, and I treat it as the exception. I will take the number that shows up most often over the one that shows up on a highlight.

What beats it: A Philadelphia team that trails all night and throws underneath would send him past the number, just as it did when he reached 67 in his latest game. A single long catch gets him within reach of 43.5 in one play.

Antonio Williams under 36.5 receiving yards

Antonio Williams, a Commanders wide receiver, has a receiving yards line of 36.5 and the under pays -111 at DraftKings. His last five games read 50, 31, 21, 15 and 24, which is four under the line and one over, and the median across the six games in his log is 27.5. The latest game is the only one of the five that cleared the number, and with a total of 40.5 I do not expect Washington to hand him that kind of volume again.

What beats it: A Commanders offense that needs to throw to keep pace would lift his target count, and a repeat of his 50 yard game would cash the over. One deep ball is enough to get him most of the way there.

Rachaad White under 41.5 rushing yards

Rachaad White, a Commanders running back, has a rushing yards line of 41.5 and the under pays -114 at DraftKings. His last five games read 27, 18, 35, 43 and 22, and only the 43 cleared the number, while the median of his last ten is 25 and he is under in seven of them. A game total of 40.5 gives both offenses few possessions, and he has not been asked for more than the number in most of his recent work.

What beats it: A Washington lead of a touchdown or more would pile carries on him late and could push him past 41.5 by himself. Any change to how the Commanders split the backfield work moves the number in the other direction.

Jeremy McNichols under 19.5 rushing yards

Jeremy McNichols, a Commanders running back, has a rushing yards line of 19.5 and the under pays -109 at DraftKings. His last five games read 13, 3, -2, 3 and 6, every one under the line, and the median of his last ten is 4.5 with eight of the ten under. The line is more than three times what he usually gets, and I am happy to sit on the side of the ordinary.

What beats it: A blowout that hands him the second-half carries, or a short-yardage role that opens up, would move him toward 19.5 quickly. A single long run does it by itself.

Staying away

Saquon Barkley over 49.5 rushing yards: Saquon Barkley, the Eagles running back, has a median of 80 over his last ten and has gone over this line in eight of them, so the over looks tempting. But his last five run 62, 8, 82, 9 and 83, a swing I cannot price, and the hamstring status carries a questionable tag. I want no part of a number that wide.

Tanner McKee over 201.5 passing yards: Tanner McKee, the Eagles quarterback, went 211 and 215 in his two latest games, both over this line, and 241, 0 and 33 before them. That history is too scattered to rest a case on, and the median of his log is 122, so the number tells me nothing.

Stefon Diggs over 42.5 receiving yards: Stefon Diggs, a Commanders wide receiver, has gone 44, 35, 33, 47 and 55 in his last five, over this line three times, and the median of his last ten is 38.5. The name sells the over, but the number sits on a plateau he keeps brushing against, and I will not pay for a name.

Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions: Dallas Goedert, an Eagles tight end, caught 5, 6, 6, 1 and 4 in his last five, and the median of his last ten is 4.5 with five over and five under. The line is dead even against his history, so there is no angle for me, and a one catch game in the middle of the run tells me not to force one.

Treylon Burks over 21.5 receiving yards: Treylon Burks, a Commanders wide receiver, went 66, 26, 47, 13 and 0 in his last five, and his median over the last ten is 12.5. Two big games pull the picture up, and the median says the line is rich. I still do not trust a receiver who can post a zero and a 66 within five games.

That is the board. My weak spot is volume: an open game would hurt most of these, so I keep the expectations plain. The Commanders at 6.5 and a total of 40.5 asks for a grind, and I am glad to take the grind.

Prices as captured Sunday, Nov 1 at 4:09 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.