Buccaneers at Bears: the board is shaded for the highlight reel

Up 4.3 units going into this board. I would like to keep it that way, so I am staying with what the games say and not what the highlight reel says.

Sunday night, Buccaneers at Bears, Chicago laying 6 at home with a total of 47.5. Everybody wants to talk about points. I want to talk about what the board asks you to believe, and where it asks too much.

Start with the quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers quarterback, has a passing yards line of 211.5, and his median over the last ten games sits at 192.5. That is a number set off his better days, not his typical one. Caleb Williams, the Bears quarterback, is the opposite story. His passing yards line is 246.5 and he has gone over in eight of his last ten, so the board is not hiding anything there. I will not pay up to fight it. His passing touchdowns line is 1.5 and he has cleared it in seven of his last ten, and the price already knows that.

Now the backs. Bucky Irving, the Buccaneers running back, carries a receiving yards line of 13.5 against a ten-game median of 7. That is the gap I like. D’Andre Swift, the Bears running back, is a different animal, and I will get to why I am keeping my hands off him.

Receivers and tight ends are where the board gets shaded hardest. Luther Burden III, the Bears wide receiver, has a line of 65.5 yards after a couple of loud weeks, and he has gone under it in eight of his last ten. Cade Otton, the Buccaneers tight end, sits on 30.5 with a ten-game median of 29.5, and the number is a hair above where he lives. Rome Odunze, the Bears wide receiver, has a yards line of 48.5 and a median of 44. That looks fair to me, so I leave it alone. Chris Godwin Jr., the Buccaneers wide receiver, has a line of 31.5 against a median of 34, which is also about right. Kalif Raymond, the Bears wide receiver, has a receptions line of 1.5 and has cleared it in eight of his last ten. The board has that one right as well.

The touchdown market is the usual carnival. The short prices sit on only a couple of names, and I will not be buying any of it tonight.

So here is what I will stand behind: four unders on players whose numbers were set by their best nights, not their normal ones.

Baker Mayfield under 211.5 passing yards

Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers quarterback, is at -111 at DraftKings on the under of 211.5 passing yards. His last five games, newest first, read 0, 64, 217, 182 and 216, so he has finished under this number in three of the five. Over his last ten games the median is 192.5 and he has cleared the line in only four. The line is set off the 217 and 216 games, and he has not been asked to throw much more than that lately. Chicago is laying 6 at home, and the game total of 47.5 is not a shootout number. I will take the under at this price and leave it there.

What beats it: Tampa Bay trailing early and throwing from behind would pile up garbage-time yards and push him past 211.5 without any real improvement. The receiver room is also unsettled: Emeka Egbuka was listed out with a foot injury in the Week 8 report, and his Week 9 status is unresolved. If he plays, the passing game gets a real weapon back.

Bucky Irving under 13.5 receiving yards

Bucky Irving, the Buccaneers running back, is at -110 at BetMGM on the under of 13.5 receiving yards. His last five games, newest first, went 0, 4, 3, 10 and 0, so he has stayed under this line in all five. Over his last ten he has gone under in eight, and the median is 7. He makes his money carrying the ball, not catching it, and the number asks him to double what he normally does. I like the under at this price.

What beats it: A game script where Tampa Bay falls behind and checkdowns become the offense would give him extra catches in space, and a single screen pass that breaks open would clear 13.5 on its own. One long catch is all it takes.

Luther Burden III under 65.5 receiving yards

Luther Burden III, the Bears wide receiver, is at -113 at DraftKings on the under of 65.5 receiving yards. His last five games, newest first, went 56, 130, 95, 47 and 63. The 130 and the 95 built this number, and the other three all landed under it. Across his last ten he has gone under in eight, and his median is 58.5. The board is paying for the big weeks, and I would rather take the games he has most often put up. I will take the under here.

What beats it: Another 130 or 95 night is what would sink this play. If Chicago has to throw to keep up, Williams has gone over his own yardage line in eight of his last ten, and Burden would take a large share of that volume.

Cade Otton under 30.5 receiving yards

Cade Otton, the Buccaneers tight end, is at -113 at FanDuel on the under of 30.5 receiving yards. His last five games, newest first, went 0, 0, 4, 25 and 37, so he has stayed under in four of the five. His ten-game median is 29.5, just below the line, and the line sits a hair above his ten-game median. A tight end who has been invisible for two straight games gets priced as if the 37 is coming back. I will take the under and call it a modest edge.

What beats it: A bigger role in the passing game, with more targets funneled to him in the middle of the field, would carry him past 30.5. He cleared the line in five of his last ten, so a good game is well inside what he has done.

Staying away

Caleb Williams over 246.5 passing yards: Caleb Williams has gone over his passing yards line in four of his last five, with games of 247, 308, 305, 138 and 269, newest first. That is the exact reason I stay away: the number has already caught up, and a 138 sits in the middle of those games. I am not paying for a hot stretch the market has already counted.

D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown: D’Andre Swift has scored in four of his last five games, including 3 in the newest one. That is exactly the type of narrative I distrust. The price is steep because the whole room can see the same scoring history, and a short price on a touchdown is the most common way to overpay on a Sunday night.

Colston Loveland over 53.5 receiving yards: Colston Loveland, the Bears tight end, went over his receiving yards line in four of his last five, with 65, 69, 65, 19 and 57 newest first. The line sits right inside those games, with a 19 right behind it. It looks tempting and the price offers nothing extra, which is no reason to touch it.

Bucky Irving over 65.5 rushing yards: Bucky Irving has rushed for 170, 106, 46, 165 and 61 in his last five, newest first, a range wide enough to drive a truck through. The line of 65.5 splits those games, and the median over his last ten is 73. I cannot build a case for either side from a spread that big, so I leave it alone.

Tez Johnson over 15.5 receiving yards: Tez Johnson, the Buccaneers wide receiver, caught for 0, 33, 7, 64 and 17 over his last five, newest first. His ten-game median is 17, only barely above the line of 15.5, and the games swing from nothing to 64. A range that wide gives me nothing firm to stand on, so I leave it alone.

That is the board. I have four unders I would stand behind and a few spots I would not touch at any number. My weak spot is the Buccaneers passing game, which could look very different with the right receiver healthy. If I am wrong, I am wrong on the quiet side, and I can live with that.

Prices as captured Sunday, Nov 8 at 4:08 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.