Atlanta Hawks at 
Chicago Bulls. Pick: Atlanta Hawks -7.5. Pick: Under 246.5.
The call
3 of 3 3 of 3 The market · now
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline, away | Moneyline, home | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Closed | CHI +6.5-108 / -112 | 246.5o -107 / u -113 | ATL -257 | CHI +211 |
| FanDuel | Closed | CHI +6.5-110 / -110 | 245.5o -110 / u -110 | ATL -250 | CHI +205 |
| BetMGM | Closed | CHI +6.5-110 / -110 | 245.5o -115 / u -105 | ATL -250 | CHI +200 |
The spread is quoted on Chicago Bulls (CHI), with the price on CHI then ATL. Closed is the last number captured before the tip. Latest capture Nov 13, 7:50pm ET. Numbers move; check the book before you bet.
Where the spread and the total opened, and how far each has moved since our first capture, open with membership. Membership
The panelists
- Wilson and Awaka out; Powell has back spasms and Swain disc irritation, both questionable.
- Flemings questionable with lumbar spasm; Landale available. Newell, Gilbert, Gueye and Veesaar out.
- Wilson had hand surgery November 12.
Spread.Atlanta -7.5 at -105 is my lean, with Chicago's newly depleted rotation strengthening the matchup advantage. Wilson's absence removes a productive starter from a team already allowing 128.8 points per game in the dossier. Atlanta has three full days off after playing November 9; Chicago has one after November 11, and neither is on a back-to-back. That gives Atlanta preparation time without an immediate fatigue penalty for traveling to Chicago. The strongest explanation for the market is straightforward: the Hawks' better early results, Chicago's defensive struggles and its availability problems justify a substantial road favorite. All three reader books have already moved from Atlanta -6.5 to -7.5. My incremental concern for Chicago is the redistribution of Wilson's minutes while other rotation roles remain unsettled. There is no internal NBA fair line, and these small regular-season samples deserve limited weight. I support Atlanta at the captured price as a lean.
Total.Under 246.5 at -110 is my lean because FanDuel offers an extra point over the captured consensus while Chicago must replace Wilson's scoring and minutes. The November 13 reporting puts his production at 18.9 points in 30.8 minutes per game. Replacement players absorb possessions, so that is not a direct points deduction, but it creates an immediate efficiency concern. The high market total already reflects fast possessions and Chicago's weak defense. Atlanta's three days off and Chicago's one provide no strong fatigue-based under argument. The narrower case is lineup efficiency at the highest captured total. Reader-book totals moved in different directions from their first captures, so I do not interpret the market as a unified under signal. This remains a lean.
Where our number looks wrong.No NBA model yet
On the spread. Chicago's last two home defeats were by five and six points, according to the November 13 dossier. If Powell and Swain return while Flemings sits, the availability balance improves for Chicago. Atlanta's early average margin is only +2.1, and its recent wins include two against Washington. A full additional point has already been charged for backing the favorite.
On the total. Both teams play quickly, and Chicago's defense has allowed 128.8 points per game. Atlanta has ample rest to sustain transition offense. Losing frontcourt depth can weaken defense and rebounding as well as scoring. Powell returning without restrictions would restore Chicago's shot creation, while Atlanta could exploit replacement lineups enough to offset Wilson's missing production.
More key facts
- Atlanta has three days off and Chicago one; Chicago allows 128.8 points per game.
- Wilson out; Powell, Swain and Flemings questionable.
- Wilson averaged 18.9 points and 30.8 minutes over 10 games before his absence.
- Estimated pace: Atlanta 105.5, Chicago 106.5. Chicago allows 128.8 points per game.
- Caleb Wilson out after right hand surgery, Powell questionable with low back spasms, Swain questionable, Awaka out
- Flemings questionable, Gilbert, Newell, Gueye and Veesaar out, Bulls 1-9 on an eight game skid
- Chicago 30th in paint points allowed, Atlanta 3rd in offensive rebounds per game, projected starters listed
Spread.Hawks -7.5 is my lean at -105 at DraftKings or BetMGM. Chicago is 1-9 with a minus 15.5 average margin and has lost eight straight, and it now plays without Caleb Wilson, its leading scorer at 18.9 points per game, who had surgery on a fractured right hand (reported 11/12). Norman Powell, its other main scorer at 19.3 points, is questionable with low back spasms after missing the last two games, and Dailyn Swain is also questionable. Rest favors Atlanta: three full days off since 11/9 against one day off for Chicago after its 11/11 loss to San Antonio. Raw season margins put the gap far wider than 7.5 even after a home court adjustment, and Atlanta's offensive rebounding (3rd in the league) and paint scoring match up against a Bulls defense that ranks 30th in paint points allowed. The market has already moved from 6.5 to 7.5 at all three reader books, so part of this is priced, which is why I hold it as a lean and not a bet.
Total.Under 246.5 at FanDuel is my lean, with 245.5 acceptable at DraftKings. The number sits above both teams' season scoring environments: Hawks games average about 234.5 combined points and Bulls games about 242.1. Chicago will be without Caleb Wilson, its top scorer, and may also lose Norman Powell and Dailyn Swain, which strips most of its shot creation and leaves a Bulls team that shoots poorly from three (28.9 on the season per SI) leaning on Josh Giddey, who turns it over 3.2 times a game. Atlanta may be without Flemings too. Fewer creators on both sides argues for fewer points than a 245.5 to 246.5 market implies. The total has barely moved, so I hold this as a lean only.
Where our number looks wrong.No NBA model yet
On the spread. Chicago's last two losses were by 5 and 6 points at home to San Antonio and Philadelphia, so the blowout margins came mostly on the road. If Powell plays and Flemings sits, the gap narrows and 7.5 is a full number for a road team. Atlanta was beaten by 10 at home by the Lakers in its last game, and three days off can mean rust. Ten game samples are noisy and Giddey led Bulls lineups can push pace into garbage time backdoor covers.
On the total. Chicago allows 128.8 points a game and ranks 30th in paint points allowed, and Atlanta takes the third most threes in the league, so the Hawks alone could carry this over. The Bulls' last two home games totaled 243 and 248, and Atlanta's 139-132 win over Washington shows its ceiling. A depleted Bulls lineup can also mean more minutes for bench units and a loose, high pace game that drifts over.
More key facts
- Powell (back) listed questionable vs Atlanta
- Wilson out, Powell and Swain questionable for Chicago
- Atlanta 3rd in three point attempts, Chicago converts 28.9 from three, Giddey 3.2 turnovers a game
- Flemings questionable with a lumbar spasm
- Chicago injuries: Wilson and Awaka out, Swain and Powell questionable
- Atlanta injuries: Newell, Gilbert, Gueye, Veesaar out, Flemings questionable
Spread.Atlanta Hawks -7.5 at -105 is a lean, not a bet. Chicago is 1-9 with a minus 15.5 average margin and has lost its last five by an average of 14.8, giving up 128.8 points a game, so a 7.5 point number looks short for a home side with that defense. Atlanta is 7-5 with a plus 2.1 margin and comes in rested, three full days off since the 11/9 loss to the Lakers, while Chicago played 11/11 with one day off. Chicago also lost C. Wilson (fractured right hand, surgery, four to six weeks) and T. Awaka is out, with D. Swain and N. Powell both questionable, so the rotation is thin. The market already moved from 6.5 to 7.5 across all three reader books, which prices part of this, and the Hawks are missing Newell, Gilbert, Gueye and Veesaar, with K. Flemings questionable. I could not verify the official report or confirmed starters today, so I keep it at a lean.
Total.Under 246.5 at FanDuel -110 is a lean, not a bet. Combined regular-season scoring for Chicago games is about 242 a night (113.3 for, 128.8 against) and about 234.5 for Atlanta games (118.3 for, 116.2 against), both below the 245.5 to 246.5 posted. Atlanta is rested and Chicago is short of a rotation big in C. Wilson, which can slow a game that a poor Bulls offense is not driving. Preseason scoring (Chicago 122 for, Atlanta 122.6 for) is exhibition noise and I weigh it lightly. The total has not moved much, 246.5 to 245.5 at DraftKings and 244.5 to 246.5 at FanDuel, so there is no clear market signal either way.
Where our number looks wrong.No NBA model yet
On the spread. Ten games is a tiny sample and Chicago went 3-2 in preseason. Atlanta is also thin with four players out and Flemings questionable, and a 7.5 point road number needs a real margin. Chicago's last two losses were by 5 and 6, and the books may be pricing a home bump and rotation uncertainty correctly. If Swain and Powell both play the gap narrows.
On the total. Chicago allows 128.8 points a game and Atlanta scores 118.3, so Atlanta alone can reach 125 or more. A lopsided game also tends to add garbage-time possessions. Atlanta's depth is thin, which can raise pace and fouls, and the over quote at 245.5 at DraftKings is -111, a normal price.
More key facts
- Season scoring splits from dossier box results, regular season only
The call, written up
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls: Atlanta Hawks -7.5. The spread moved a point toward Atlanta at every reader book: DraftKings opened Chicago +6.5 and is now +7.5, FanDuel opened +6.5 and is now +7.5, and BetMGM opened +6.5 and is now +7.5. The captured consensus is Chicago +7.5, with the market ranging from +7 to +7.5. Chicago will be without Caleb Wilson after his November 12 hand surgery, while Norman Powell and Dailyn Swain were questionable on the NBA’s November 13, 11:15 a.m. ET report. Atlanta had three full days off after November 9; Chicago had one after November 11. Chicago has allowed 128.8 points per game, and the disrupted rotation creates a difficult matchup for the home side. The counter is that the full point move already accounts for much of the absence news, Atlanta has several players out with Kingston Flemings questionable, and Powell’s return could narrow the gap. Take Atlanta Hawks -7.5 at -105 at BetMGM.
Under 246.5. DraftKings moved from 246.5 to 245.5, FanDuel rose from 244.5 to 246.5, and BetMGM stayed at 245.5; the captured consensus is 245.5. Atlanta games have averaged about 234.5 combined points and Chicago games about 242.1, while Chicago must replace Wilson after his November 12 hand surgery and Powell, Swain and Flemings remained questionable on November 13. Atlanta has three full days of rest and Chicago one. The counter is Chicago’s 128.8 points allowed per game and both teams’ quick early pace. Take Under 246.5 at -110 at FanDuel.
How to read this page
The call comes first: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, or No call. Under it is the market at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. Then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one, and the call written up. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
The write-up
The case
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls: Atlanta Hawks -7.5. The spread moved a point toward Atlanta at every reader book: DraftKings opened Chicago +6.5 and is now +7.5, FanDuel opened +6.5 and is now +7.5, and BetMGM opened +6.5 and is now +7.5. The captured consensus is Chicago +7.5, with the market ranging from +7 to +7.5. Chicago will be without Caleb Wilson after his November 12 hand surgery, while Norman Powell and Dailyn Swain were questionable on the NBA’s November 13, 11:15 a.m. ET report. Atlanta had three full days off after November 9; Chicago had one after November 11. Chicago has allowed 128.8 points per game, and the disrupted rotation creates a difficult matchup for the home side. The counter is that the full point move already accounts for much of the absence news, Atlanta has several players out with Kingston Flemings questionable, and Powell’s return could narrow the gap. Take Atlanta Hawks -7.5 at -105 at BetMGM.
Recorded price
BetMGM: Atlanta Hawks -7.5 at -105, verified 2026-11-13T16:40:06.048Z.
The total
Under 246.5 (Pick). Under 246.5. DraftKings moved from 246.5 to 245.5, FanDuel rose from 244.5 to 246.5, and BetMGM stayed at 245.5; the captured consensus is 245.5. Atlanta games have averaged about 234.5 combined points and Chicago games about 242.1, while Chicago must replace Wilson after his November 12 hand surgery and Powell, Swain and Flemings remained questionable on November 13. Atlanta has three full days of rest and Chicago one. The counter is Chicago’s 128.8 points allowed per game and both teams’ quick early pace. Take Under 246.5 at -110 at FanDuel.
written before the tip, frozen at the tip
Where the numbers come from, and what Pick and Lean mean
Each call above is a Pick or a Lean, or says no call. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
There is no Edge Labs NBA rating yet, so there is no model number of ours beside the market on this page. The numbers in the market block are the books' numbers, and nothing in that block is a call.
Where the numbers come from. Schedule, tips and finals from ESPN. Lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via The Odds API, the latest capture before the tip. Calls come from Ace, Stack and Buck, locked at the number we posted and graded in public. Research and context, never a guarantee. 21+.