Memphis Grizzlies at 
New Orleans Pelicans. Lean: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5. Lean: Over 236.5.
The call
2 of 3 3 of 3 The market · now
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline, away | Moneyline, home | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Closed | NO +3.5-108 / -112 | 235.5o -110 / u -110 | MEM -162 | NO +136 |
| FanDuel | Closed | NO +3.5-105 / -115 | 235.5o -108 / u -112 | MEM -168 | NO +142 |
| BetMGM | Closed | NO +3.5-105 / -115 | 235.5o -110 / u -110 | MEM -165 | NO +135 |
The spread is quoted on New Orleans Pelicans (NO), with the price on NO then MEM. Closed is the last number captured before the tip. Latest capture Nov 13, 7:50pm ET. Numbers move; check the book before you bet.
Where the spread and the total opened, and how far each has moved since our first capture, open with membership. Membership
The panelists
- November 13 listing shows Murphy, Mathurin, McGowens and Missi doubtful, with Watford out.
- Thursday team status report ruled out Edey and Post; Stewart was not listed.
- Pregame board ranks Memphis eighth offensively and New Orleans 28th defensively.
Spread.Memphis -2.5 at BetMGM's -105 is my lean, supported by New Orleans's depleted perimeter rotation and persistent defensive problems. The November 13 FantasyData listing retains doubtful designations for Murphy and Mathurin, limiting the expected shooting support around Williamson. The dossier has New Orleans allowing 124.3 points per game through November 11, while RealGM's November 13 board ranks its defense 28th. Memphis therefore has a credible route to covering a small spread without needing its early season record to represent its true strength. Both teams had one full day off after November 11 games, neither is on a back-to-back, and Memphis travels while New Orleans stays home. The strongest explanation for the current number is a Memphis quality advantage moderated by venue and frontcourt availability. There is no internal fair spread. The cheaper favorite price supports a lean, but the research does not establish enough unpriced value for a normal unit.
Total.Over 236.5 at FanDuel's -114 is my lean because New Orleans's pace and defensive weakness support scoring opportunities at both ends. RealGM's November 13 board ranks the Pelicans fourth in pace and 28th defensively. The November 12 reporting that Memphis will be without Edey and Post adds a plausible interior-scoring channel for New Orleans, although its magnitude is uncertain. Both teams had a full day off, so the dossier supplies no immediate fatigue reason to suppress offense. The market's rise from FanDuel's first captured 233.5 to 236.5 is consistent with those conditions. I prefer the lower captured total, but the move has already absorbed much of the straightforward over case. This is a lean, without a verified possession forecast or sufficient incremental evidence for a bet.
Where our number looks wrong.No NBA model yet
On the spread. Edey and Post being out, reported November 12, weakens Memphis's size and center depth against Williamson. Stewart provides a replacement, but foul trouble could expose the remaining rotation. New Orleans has home court, and the spread moved toward it across all three reader books. If Murphy or Mathurin plays meaningful minutes despite the November 13 doubtful listings, the Memphis case weakens further. Both teams are 1-4 over their last five in the dossier.
On the total. Murphy and Mathurin remained doubtful on November 13, which can reduce New Orleans's spacing and scoring efficiency. Memphis ranked ninth defensively on RealGM's November 13 board and need not match the Pelicans' pace. The prior 269-point meeting included overtime and is not a regulation baseline. The total has already risen substantially, and a lopsided game could shorten productive starter minutes.
More key facts
- New Orleans ranks fourth in pace and 28th defensively; Memphis ranks 16th in pace and ninth defensively.
- Edey and Post were ruled out for Friday, reducing Memphis's available center depth.
- Previous Memphis meeting went to overtime.
- Pelicans injury report: Murphy III, Mathurin, McGowens, Missi doubtful; Dia questionable; Watford out. Grizzlies: Edey, Post, Pippen Jr., Saunders out
- Missi doubtful Friday, Matkovic in line for another start at center
- Pelicans on a four game skid, Zion mirror comment and Murray deleted post; NO won last meeting 135-134 in OT
Spread.Memphis -2.5 is a lean, not a bet. New Orleans enters 4-8 on a four game losing streak, beaten by 34 at home by Brooklyn on 11/11 and by 51 at Golden State on 11/9, and the locker room is visibly strained: Zion Williamson told teammates to look in the mirror and Dejounte Murray posted and deleted a sabotage message. The availability picture tilts further against them. Trey Murphy III (knee), Bennedict Mathurin (thumb), Yves Missi (knee) and Bryce McGowens (elbow) were all listed doubtful and Trendon Watford out on reports dated 11/12 and 11/13, which strips two of their best wings and their starting center. Memphis is 7-4 and 5-0 on the road, Ty Jerome is off the injury report after 22 points against Denver on 11/11, and both teams have one day of rest with no back to back. Memphis is missing Zach Edey and Quinten Post in the frontcourt plus Scotty Pippen Jr., but that is a smaller hit than three New Orleans starters. Under a field goal is a short price for the healthier, better team.
Total.Over 236.5 is a thin lean. New Orleans has allowed 145, 138 and 139 in three of its last four games and gives up 124.3 a game, and Memphis arrives without its two true centers, Zach Edey and Quinten Post, so rim protection on both ends is weak with Missi also doubtful for New Orleans. Memphis scores 117.9 a game behind Ty Jerome, and the 11/2 meeting finished 135-134 in overtime. Both teams have a day of rest, so no tired legs drag the pace. The season scoring averages blend to the middle 230s, so the edge is small and comes from the matchup of two thin frontcourts.
Where our number looks wrong.No NBA model yet
On the spread. The market moved two points toward New Orleans at DraftKings from the opener, which is the strongest sign that someone knows something: a buyback on a home underdog after blowouts, a likely effort response after Zion's public challenge, and a Memphis frontcourt without Edey and Post that may struggle with Zion inside. New Orleans won the 11/2 meeting 135-134 in overtime with Matkovic scoring 25. If Murphy III or Missi is upgraded and plays, the gap shrinks further and Memphis -2.5 becomes a coin flip.
On the total. New Orleans may be without Murphy III and Mathurin, two of its main scorers, which drags its own output down, and a team embarrassed by consecutive blowouts often tightens up defensively at home. The three point climb may have already overshot, and the over at 236.5 costs -114 to -115 at FanDuel and BetMGM, while DraftKings offers the under at 237.5.
More key facts
- Ty Jerome not on the injury report for Friday at New Orleans
- Memphis 7-4, 117.9 points per game; New Orleans 4-8 on a four game losing streak
- Grizzlies out: Edey and Post; Pelicans: Missi doubtful
- Dossier injury scan lists four Memphis players Out and five New Orleans players with Doubtful or Out tags tied to the Thursday game
Spread.New Orleans +2.5 is the nominal side only because the market has already moved from +4.5 at DraftKings and +3.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM, and Memphis arrives without Zach Edey, Quinten Post, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Rayan Saunders per the scan dated 2026-11-13. Both teams are on one day of rest, so rest does not separate them. New Orleans won the only meeting this season 135 to 134 on 2026-11-02, a one point game. The Pelicans have lost four of their last five by an average of 20 points, including 87 to 138 at Golden State, and the scan's New Orleans designations for Missi, Mathurin, McGowens and Murphy are attached to Thursday's game, so I cannot tell who plays tonight. I found no dated current injury report for tonight in my search. That makes this a pass with no view rather than a lean.
Total.Over 237.5 is a lean at DraftKings -105, with a play-to of 237.5, because both defenses are leaking points and Memphis is down its center rotation. New Orleans allows 124.3 points per game and Memphis scores 117.9, while New Orleans scores 116.9 and the two teams combined for 269 points on 2026-11-02. Memphis without Edey and Post has little rim protection, which favors scoring in a division game with both teams on one day of rest. The number has already climbed three points from the openers, so the market has priced much of this. I am not a bettor at the current number, only a lean.
Where our number looks wrong.No NBA model yet
On the spread. Memphis laying 2.5 with four frontcourt and guard rotation players out is the thinner roster, and New Orleans allows 124.3 points per game with a 34 point home loss two nights ago, so Memphis -2.5 has a real argument if the Pelicans are also shorthanded.
On the total. A three point move means the market has already priced the weak defenses, and if Memphis slows the pace without its bigs or New Orleans is missing scorers, the points total drops under the number.
More key facts
- Dossier head to head and season averages used for the scoring case; no dated external source confirmed tonight's status
The call, written up
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5. The market has moved toward New Orleans, from Pelicans +4.5 at DraftKings and +3.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM to +2.5 at each, with the six-book consensus also New Orleans +2.5. Memphis has an offensive edge against a New Orleans defense ranked 28th on RealGM’s November 13 board, while the Pelicans listed Trey Murphy III, Bennedict Mathurin, Yves Missi and Bryce McGowens doubtful and Trendon Watford out on November 13. Both clubs last played November 11 and have one full day off, so neither is on a back-to-back. The counter-case is meaningful: Memphis is without Zach Edey and Quinten Post, weakening its center depth against Zion Williamson, and the market’s move toward the home side reflects that concern. New Orleans also won the November 2 meeting 135-134 in overtime. Take Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at -105 at BetMGM.
Over 236.5. DraftKings moved from 234.5 to 237.5, FanDuel from 233.5 to 236.5, and BetMGM from 234.5 to 236.5, with the consensus at 237. New Orleans ranked fourth in pace and 28th defensively on RealGM’s November 13 board, while Memphis will be without centers Zach Edey and Quinten Post. Both teams have one full day off. The counter-case is New Orleans’s doubtful scorers, including Murphy and Mathurin, plus Memphis’s ninth-ranked defense and a total that has already risen. Take Over 236.5 at -114 at FanDuel.
How to read this page
The call comes first: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, or No call. Under it is the market at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. Then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one, and the call written up. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
The write-up
The case
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5. The market has moved toward New Orleans, from Pelicans +4.5 at DraftKings and +3.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM to +2.5 at each, with the six-book consensus also New Orleans +2.5. Memphis has an offensive edge against a New Orleans defense ranked 28th on RealGM’s November 13 board, while the Pelicans listed Trey Murphy III, Bennedict Mathurin, Yves Missi and Bryce McGowens doubtful and Trendon Watford out on November 13. Both clubs last played November 11 and have one full day off, so neither is on a back-to-back. The counter-case is meaningful: Memphis is without Zach Edey and Quinten Post, weakening its center depth against Zion Williamson, and the market’s move toward the home side reflects that concern. New Orleans also won the November 2 meeting 135-134 in overtime. Take Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at -105 at BetMGM.
Recorded price
BetMGM: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at -105, verified 2026-11-13T16:40:06.048Z.
The total
Over 236.5 (Lean). Over 236.5. DraftKings moved from 234.5 to 237.5, FanDuel from 233.5 to 236.5, and BetMGM from 234.5 to 236.5, with the consensus at 237. New Orleans ranked fourth in pace and 28th defensively on RealGM’s November 13 board, while Memphis will be without centers Zach Edey and Quinten Post. Both teams have one full day off. The counter-case is New Orleans’s doubtful scorers, including Murphy and Mathurin, plus Memphis’s ninth-ranked defense and a total that has already risen. Take Over 236.5 at -114 at FanDuel.
written before the tip, frozen at the tip
Where the numbers come from, and what Pick and Lean mean
Each call above is a Pick or a Lean, or says no call. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
There is no Edge Labs NBA rating yet, so there is no model number of ours beside the market on this page. The numbers in the market block are the books' numbers, and nothing in that block is a call.
Where the numbers come from. Schedule, tips and finals from ESPN. Lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via The Odds API, the latest capture before the tip. Calls come from Ace, Stack and Buck, locked at the number we posted and graded in public. Research and context, never a guarantee. 21+.