Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers. Pick: Denver Broncos -3.5. Lean: Under 42.5.

Spread.Market first: Denver -3.5 is chiefly explained by the Chargers' 0-4 start and the expected loss of both starting tackles, not by a hidden Broncos upgrade. The market has already moved from Chargers -1.5 at FanDuel and -2.5 at DraftKings to Denver -3.5, then held there after Friday designations. I lean Denver because Los Angeles officially ruled out Alt, Penning and Awosika, leaving Herbert behind a severely depleted front, while Johnston is also out. But I pass at -3.5. Denver's Surtain and Moss are definitively out, a major offset against Herbert, and the key number plus an untested Payton play-calling change leave too little unpriced value. Our number, Chargers +2.9, differs by only 0.6 points and is not usable as an ATS signal.

Total.Market first: the fall from 43.5 openers to 41.5 to 42.5 has priced a Chargers offense that is short multiple linemen and wide receivers. I still lean under 42.5 because the Friday report confirmed the offensive damage, and the market did not rebound after that confirmation. The case is less clean than the spread: Denver is without both starting corners, the Chargers are without James and Jackson, and Payton's return to play-calling adds variance. SoFi's roof removes weather as an under input. Our totals model's 43.93 over lean should not overrule the market because its holdout error trailed the market and it has run high historically. This is a fresh lean only, while the prior Under 42.5 lock remains unchanged.

Where our number looks wrong.The rating's Chargers +2.9 number is based heavily on preseason priors and final margins, and it does not price the confirmed loss of Slater, Alt and multiple other linemen.

• The Chargers' final report lists Alt, Awosika, Penning and Johnston as out, with McConkey questionable.
• Denver confirmed Surtain and Moss will not play.
• The Chargers' Friday morning odds roundup listed Denver -3.5 and totals from 41.5 through 42.5.

Spread.Market first: Denver opened 1.5 to 2.5 in our captures and every book now sits at Broncos 3.5, a move through the key number of 3 that tracks the Chargers injury report. Our number is Chargers +2.9, only 0.6 short of the market, and it reads nothing from injuries, so its small lean to Los Angeles is stale. Friday's report is lopsided. The Chargers ruled out both starting tackles plus their next two tackle options (Alt, Penning, Awosika) with Slater already sidelined by a high ankle sprain, ruled out wideouts Quentin Johnston and Brenen Thompson, listed McConkey questionable, and ruled out Derwin James and Donte Jackson. Denver loses Surtain and Moss at corner, a real hit, but the Chargers have few healthy receivers to exploit it, while a Denver front facing a rookie left tackle and a backup right tackle is the matchup I trust most. The market has priced a lot of this already, and 3.5 in a low total game makes the hook expensive, so this is a lean on Denver, not a bet.

Total.Market first: the total fell from 43.5 to 41.5 at DraftKings, with FanDuel at 42.5, because both offenses have struggled to finish drives and the Chargers are now down both starting tackles and two wideouts. The over case is real: both secondaries are short, with Surtain and Moss out for Denver and James and Jackson out for Los Angeles, in a dome. I side with the under because the Chargers' offensive line and receiver losses cut their ability to exploit Denver's backup corners, Denver runs the ball poorly, and division familiarity favors a grinding game.

Where our number looks wrong.Our rating has the Chargers +2.9, a small lean toward Los Angeles against the 3.5, but it cannot see that the Chargers will start backups at both tackle spots and are missing their top two healthy outside receivers plus Derwin James. It also still carries a preseason prior that rated the Chargers far above an 0-4 team with a stalling offense. The injury gap here runs toward Denver, so the model's 0.6 point lean to the home side should be discounted entirely.

• Records: Denver 2-2, Chargers 0-4; Herbert 4 TD and 6 INT through four games.
• Surtain ankle not considered season ending, expected to miss time.
• Chargers final Week 5 injury report with tackles and wideouts out.
• Broncos rule out Surtain and Moss.
• Denver rushing 81.2 yards per game; total down from earlier in the week; NBC model favors the under.

Spread.Strongest explanation for the number: the Chargers are 0-4 and 0-3-1 ATS, scoring more than 16 only once, with a line-up that flipped from Chargers -2.5 at open to Denver -3.5, a six point swing that already prices the bad start. Against that, the Chargers offensive line is the weakest unit on either roster: Slater is out, Alt is questionable with a neck issue, and Penning, Awosika and Taylor all sat or were limited on the Wednesday report. Denver has the better quarterback environment and a defense that can attack a patched line, even without Surtain and Moss at corner. The Denver secondary losses are real and Herbert will get chances, but a protection problem tends to cap what he can do with them. This is a thin lean on Denver at the hook, not a bet: Friday final designations could not be verified and the market has moved with the news.

Total.The total has fallen from about 43.5 at open to 41.5 to 42.5, so part of the Under is priced. Still, both offenses are poor: the Chargers have scored more than 16 only once, Denver's quarterback grades near the bottom third by EPA, and both teams are 1-3 to the over. The Chargers line problems point to stalled drives and clock use. The counter is the dome and two thin secondaries, with Denver missing both starting corners. I would take Under at 41.5 or better, since the lower number sits closer to the market's fair read, and I would not pay the extra juice at 42.5.

• Both offenses struggling, recommended Under 42.5, both teams 1-3 to the over