NFL win totals 2026. BetMGM and DraftKings, side by side.
All 32 team win totals for 2026 and the full Super Bowl board, captured with sources on the same day. The value here is the comparison: which book hangs the different number, which book charges the different price, and where the market cannot agree with itself.
What am I looking at?
Market intelligence plus a model anchor. The EL NFL Rating v3 is live: expected wins for all 32 teams from an opponent adjusted game margin model that beat our prior model in all four held out seasons (game margin error 10.0 points against the prior model's 10.4). A lean here means we have a view on that team's win total, and one lean was published when the positions locked on Aug 18; it grades at season end and is not a new call. Everything else on the page stays what it was: who hangs what number, who charges what price, where the market cannot agree with itself.
The board · win total leans
Market numbers: BetMGM and DraftKings via VegasInsider, captured Oct 25, 2026. Our numbers: the EL NFL Rating v3, published Aug 18, 2026, refit Oct 28, 2026 on every completed 2026 game.
| Team | Market | Our lean | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5BetMGM -140 · DraftKings hangs 4.5 (+134) | OVER 3.5 (locked Aug 18) | Locked before week 1 on the Aug 18 fit, which put Miami at 7.21 expected wins against a 3.5 line. It grades at season end at that locked number; the nightly refit does not move it. The market is pricing last season’s teardown, the new coach, and the new quarterback; the model sees Miami’s minus 4.5 points per game in 2025 and still lands nearly four wins above the line. This team won 7 games last year. Shop it: BetMGM hangs 3.5 and DraftKings (+134) hangs 4.5, a full win higher at plus money. |
2026 win totals · all 32 teams
BetMGM and DraftKings via VegasInsider, captured Oct 25, 2026. Line = the number both books hang, the lower one where they split; prices are the over at each book, with its own number when it differs. Our number is the EL NFL Rating v3 expected wins, refit nightly on every completed game, and positions on this board, including the Miami OVER 3.5, were locked before week 1 and are not re-picked from the live gap.
BetMGM and DraftKings both post a win total on 29 of the 32 teams, and on 21 of those they hang different numbers. The two books disagree team by team, and the disagreements are the interesting part: where they split is where the shopping is, and our number sits beside the market number on every team.
| Team | Line | Our number | Gap | Over price by book | Where the books disagree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 13.5 | 12.1 | -1.4 | BetMGM +115 · DraftKings +160 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.5 | 11.1 | -0.4 | BetMGM +125 · DraftKings +205 at 12.5 | BetMGM hangs 11.5, DraftKings hangs 12.5. |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.5 | 12.6 | +1.1 | BetMGM +100 · DraftKings +112 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | BetMGM -155 · DraftKings -300 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 11.7 | +1.2 | BetMGM +110 at 12.5 · DraftKings -350 | BetMGM hangs 12.5, DraftKings hangs 10.5. |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | 10.4 | -0.1 | BetMGM +105 · DraftKings +130 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | 11.3 | +0.8 | BetMGM +115 at 12.5 · DraftKings -260 | BetMGM hangs 12.5, DraftKings hangs 10.5. |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | 9.7 | -0.8 | BetMGM +135 · DraftKings +120 | |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 | 10.1 | +0.6 | BetMGM -145 at 10.5 · DraftKings -182 | BetMGM hangs 10.5, DraftKings hangs 9.5. |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | 10.9 | +1.4 | BetMGM +105 at 10.5 · DraftKings -198 | BetMGM hangs 10.5, DraftKings hangs 9.5. |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | BetMGM -125 at 10.5 · DraftKings -164 | BetMGM hangs 10.5, DraftKings hangs 9.5. |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9.5 | 8.5 | -1.0 | BetMGM +110 · DraftKings -105 at 10.5 | BetMGM hangs 9.5, DraftKings hangs 10.5. |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | BetMGM -140 · DraftKings +100 at 10.5 | BetMGM hangs 9.5, DraftKings hangs 10.5. |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | BetMGM +110 · DraftKings -125 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 10.4 | +1.9 | DraftKings +102 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | 7.6 | +0.1 | BetMGM +125 · DraftKings +156 at 8.5 | BetMGM hangs 7.5, DraftKings hangs 8.5. |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 9.3 | +1.8 | BetMGM -115 at 9.5 · DraftKings -310 | BetMGM hangs 9.5, DraftKings hangs 7.5. |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | 6.9 | -0.6 | BetMGM +130 · DraftKings +132 at 8.5 | BetMGM hangs 7.5, DraftKings hangs 8.5. |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | 6.9 | -0.6 | BetMGM -115 · DraftKings +270 at 9.5 | BetMGM hangs 7.5, DraftKings hangs 9.5. |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | 6.2 | -1.3 | DraftKings +250 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | 7.5 | +1.0 | BetMGM -125 at 8.5 · DraftKings -240 | BetMGM hangs 8.5, DraftKings hangs 6.5. |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 | 9.2 | +2.7 | BetMGM +135 at 8.5 · DraftKings -250 | BetMGM hangs 8.5, DraftKings hangs 6.5. |
| Houston Texans | 6.5 | 7.5 | +1.0 | BetMGM -150 at 8.5 · DraftKings -300 | BetMGM hangs 8.5, DraftKings hangs 6.5. |
| New York Giants | 6.5 | 8.7 | +2.2 | BetMGM -130 · DraftKings +100 at 7.5 | BetMGM hangs 6.5, DraftKings hangs 7.5. |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | BetMGM +170 · DraftKings -220 at 7.5 | BetMGM hangs 6.5, DraftKings hangs 7.5. |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | 5.8 | +0.3 | DraftKings -270 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.5 | 7.4 | +1.9 | BetMGM -125 · DraftKings -142 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | BetMGM -110 at 5.5 · DraftKings +102 | BetMGM hangs 5.5, DraftKings hangs 4.5. |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.0 | BetMGM -102 · DraftKings +205 at 6.5 | BetMGM hangs 4.5, DraftKings hangs 6.5. |
| Washington Commanders | 4.5 | 6.2 | +1.7 | BetMGM -145 at 5.5 · DraftKings -360 | BetMGM hangs 5.5, DraftKings hangs 4.5. |
| Tennessee Titans | 3.5 | 3.9 | +0.4 | BetMGM -145 · DraftKings -146 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 1.5 | 4.7 | +3.2 | BetMGM +105 at 2.5 · DraftKings -440 | BetMGM hangs 2.5, DraftKings hangs 1.5. |
The Super Bowl board · top of the market
DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, 32 teams priced, captured Aug 13, 2026. Sorted by median price across the three books; range is the cheapest to the most generous.
| Team | Median | Range across the books |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +500 | +500 (FanDuel) to +550 (DraftKings) |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | +1000 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | +1100 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1100 | +1000 (DraftKings) to +1200 (FanDuel) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | +1500 (BetMGM) to +1700 (FanDuel) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1700 | +1700 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM |
| New England Patriots | +1700 | +1600 (DraftKings) to +2000 (BetMGM) |
| Houston Texans | +1800 | +1700 (FanDuel) to +2000 (BetMGM) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1800 | +1600 (DraftKings) to +1800 (BetMGM) |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1800 | +1700 (BetMGM) to +1900 (DraftKings) |
Where the books disagree the hardest
- Miami Dolphins. +35000 at DraftKings against +75000 at FanDuel. The generous book pays 2.1x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- Arizona Cardinals. +50000 at DraftKings against +100000 at FanDuel. The generous book pays 2.0x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- Tennessee Titans. +12500 at FanDuel against +25000 at BetMGM. The generous book pays 2.0x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- Atlanta Falcons. +8000 at FanDuel against +13000 at DraftKings. The generous book pays 1.6x the tight one on the identical outcome.
Same team, same trophy, and the most generous book pays up to 2.1x what the tightest does. When books disagree that hard the fair price sits somewhere in between, and our free devig calculator finds it from any two prices you paste in. Line shopping is the one futures edge that requires no model at all.
The CFB board is already priced
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Provenance: win totals hand captured from the VegasInsider NFL win totals board (BetMGM and DraftKings) on Oct 25, 2026; Super Bowl prices from a live capture of DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM via The Odds API on Aug 13, 2026, 32 teams priced. Lean numbers: the EL NFL Rating v3, published Aug 18, 2026 and refit Oct 28, 2026 on every completed 2026 game, held out game margin error 10.0 points against the prior model's 10.4. Every price on this page carries its book, its source, and its capture date. Research and context · 21+.