NFL win totals 2026. Every book's number, side by side.
All 32 team win totals for 2026 and the full Super Bowl board, captured with sources on the same day. The value here is the comparison: which book hangs the different number, which book charges the different price, and where the market cannot agree with itself.
What am I looking at?
Market intelligence plus a model anchor. The EL NFL Rating v3 is live: expected wins for all 32 teams from an opponent adjusted game margin model that beat our prior model in all four held out seasons (game margin error 10.0 points against the prior model's 10.4). The bar is the same one the CFB board runs: a lean appears here only when the gap between our number and the posted line is bigger than the model's own error, and one lean clears it today. Everything else on the page stays what it was: who hangs what number, who charges what price, where the market cannot agree with itself.
The board · win total leans
Market numbers: BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, Rivers via VegasInsider, captured Sep 10, 2026. Our numbers: the EL NFL Rating v3, published Aug 18, 2026, refit Sep 13, 2026 on every completed 2026 game.
| Team | Market | Our lean | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5BetMGM -140 · Rivers -139 (DK and Caesars hang 4.5) | OVER 3.5 | The EL NFL Rating v3 says 7.21 expected wins on a 3.5 line, a 3.71 win gap and the widest on the board. The market is pricing last season’s teardown, the new coach, and the new quarterback; the model sees Miami’s minus 4.5 points per game in 2025 and still lands nearly four wins above the line. This team won 7 games last year. Shop it: BetMGM and Rivers hang 3.5, DraftKings (+134) and Caesars (+135) hang 4.5, a full win higher at plus money. |
2026 win totals · all 32 teams
BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, Rivers via VegasInsider, captured Sep 10, 2026. Line = majority book number; prices are the over at each book on that number; splits noted.
The 32 majority lines sum to 267, one win shy of the 272 a 17 game season hands out (we list the lower line on even splits, so the board sums a notch light). The books balance the ledger as a group and then disagree team by team, and the disagreements are the interesting part: 32 teams below carry a split line or a split price.
| Team | Line | Over price by book | Where the books disagree |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 | BetMGM -140 · Caesars -140 · Rivers -134 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 8.5 (over -1200). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 11.5 are the majority line. |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | BetMGM -155 · Rivers -148 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 10.5 (over -155), Caesars 11.5 (over +135), DraftKings 6.5 (over -2000), Rivers 10.5 (over -148). |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | BetMGM -130 · Caesars -135 · Rivers -139 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 7.5 (over -750). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 10.5 are the majority line. |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | BetMGM +100 · Caesars +100 · Rivers +110 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 6.5 (over -900). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 10.5 are the majority line. |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | BetMGM -130 · Caesars -120 · Rivers -134 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 7.5 (over -750). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 10.5 are the majority line. |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | BetMGM +120 · Caesars +120 · Rivers +115 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 7.5 (over -650). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 10.5 are the majority line. |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | BetMGM +115 · Caesars +125 · Rivers +120 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 7.5 (over -600). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 10.5 are the majority line. |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | BetMGM -120 · Rivers -127 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 10.5 (over -120), DraftKings 7.5 (over -850), Rivers 10.5 (over -127). |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 | BetMGM +105 · Caesars +100 · Rivers +100 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 6.5 (over -600). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 9.5 are the majority line. |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | BetMGM -110 · Caesars -115 · Rivers -106 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 6.5 (over -550). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 9.5 are the majority line. |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | BetMGM -125 · Caesars -125 · Rivers -134 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 6.5 (over -750). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 9.5 are the majority line. |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | BetMGM -130 · Rivers -134 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 9.5 (over -130), Caesars 10.5 (over +160), DraftKings 7.5 (over -400), Rivers 9.5 (over -134). |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | Caesars -155 · Rivers -148 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 10.5 (over +120), Caesars 9.5 (over -155), DraftKings 6.5 (over -1000), Rivers 9.5 (over -148). |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | BetMGM -140 · Rivers -148 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 9.5 (over -140), Caesars 10.5 (over +130), DraftKings 7.5 (over -550), Rivers 9.5 (over -148). |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 | BetMGM -115 · Rivers -115 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 9.5 (over -115), DraftKings 6.5 (over -1000), Rivers 9.5 (over -115). |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | BetMGM -145 · Rivers -134 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 8.5 (over -145), Caesars 9.5 (over +122), DraftKings 6.5 (over -500), Rivers 8.5 (over -134). |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | BetMGM -125 · Caesars -140 · Rivers -127 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 5.5 (over -750). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 8.5 are the majority line. |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | BetMGM +100 · Caesars +115 · Rivers +110 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 5.5 (over -650). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 8.5 are the majority line. |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | BetMGM +115 · Caesars +122 · Rivers +110 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 5.5 (over -650). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 8.5 are the majority line. |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | BetMGM +125 · Rivers +120 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 7.5 (over +125), Caesars 6.5 (over -145), DraftKings 4.5 (over -600), Rivers 7.5 (over +120). |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | BetMGM -145 · Rivers -136 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 7.5 (over -145), Caesars 8.5 (over +105), DraftKings 4.5 (over -900), Rivers 7.5 (over -136). |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | BetMGM -125 · Caesars -120 · Rivers -121 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 4.5 (over -850). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 7.5 are the majority line. |
| New York Giants | 7.5 | BetMGM -102 · Caesars +105 · Rivers -110 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 4.5 (over -900). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 7.5 are the majority line. |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7.5 | DraftKings -550 | Books split across more than two lines: Caesars 10.5 (over +130), DraftKings 7.5 (over -550), Rivers 9.5 (over -134). |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | BetMGM +110 · Caesars +120 · Rivers +105 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 4.5 (over -800). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 7.5 are the majority line. |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6.5 | BetMGM -140 · Rivers -136 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 6.5 (over -140), Caesars 7.5 (over +120), DraftKings 4.5 (over -500), Rivers 6.5 (over -136). |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | BetMGM +115 · Caesars +118 · Rivers +110 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 9.5 (over +550). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 6.5 are the majority line. |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | BetMGM -125 · Caesars -115 · Rivers -115 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 9.5 (over +600). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 5.5 are the majority line. |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 | BetMGM -135 · Caesars -130 · Rivers -148 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 9.5 (over +750). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 5.5 are the majority line. |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | BetMGM -115 · Caesars -130 · Rivers -110 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 9.5 (over +1000). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 5.5 are the majority line. |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 | BetMGM -155 · Rivers -139 | Books split across more than two lines: BetMGM 3.5 (over -155), Caesars 4.5 (over +130), DraftKings 8.5 (over +2200), Rivers 3.5 (over -139). |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | BetMGM -135 · Caesars -135 · Rivers -139 | Book split: DraftKings hangs 8.5 (over +1300). BetMGM, Caesars, Rivers at 3.5 are the majority line. |
The Super Bowl board · top of the market
Live 7 book capture (BetMGM, BetOnline, BetRivers, Bovada, DraftKings, FanDuel, LowVig), 32 teams priced, captured Aug 13, 2026. Sorted by median price; range is the cheapest to the most generous book.
| Team | Median | Range across books |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +500 | +475 (BetOnline) to +550 (DraftKings) |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | +1000 (FanDuel) to +1000 (FanDuel) |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | +1100 (FanDuel) to +1200 (Bovada) |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1100 | +1000 (DraftKings) to +1300 (Bovada) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | +1500 (BetRivers) to +1700 (FanDuel) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1700 | +1700 (FanDuel) to +1800 (BetOnline) |
| Houston Texans | +1800 | +1600 (Bovada) to +2000 (BetOnline) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1800 | +1600 (DraftKings) to +2000 (Bovada) |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1800 | +1500 (Bovada) to +1900 (DraftKings) |
| Detroit Lions | +1900 | +1700 (BetRivers) to +2000 (BetOnline) |
Where the books disagree the hardest
- Miami Dolphins. +30000 at BetRivers against +80000 at Bovada. The generous book pays 2.7x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- Tennessee Titans. +12500 at FanDuel against +25000 at BetOnline. The generous book pays 2.0x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- New York Jets. +20000 at BetRivers against +40000 at Bovada. The generous book pays 2.0x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- Arizona Cardinals. +50000 at BetOnline against +100000 at FanDuel. The generous book pays 2.0x the tight one on the identical outcome.
- Atlanta Falcons. +8000 at FanDuel against +13000 at DraftKings. The generous book pays 1.6x the tight one on the identical outcome.
Same team, same trophy, and one book pays double what another does. When books disagree that hard the fair price sits somewhere in between, and our free devig calculator finds it from any two prices you paste in. Line shopping is the one futures edge that requires no model at all.
The CFB board is already priced
Members get the full CFB futures board with our model number against every posted total, the work behind each lean, every calculator, and the NFL leans as the model puts numbers next to teams (the first one is above). $24/mo founder rate.
Provenance: win totals hand captured from the VegasInsider NFL win totals board (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, Rivers) on Sep 10, 2026; Super Bowl prices from a live seven book capture (FanDuel, BetOnline, BetRivers, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, LowVig) via The Odds API on Aug 13, 2026, 32 teams priced. Lean numbers: the EL NFL Rating v3, published Aug 18, 2026 and refit Sep 13, 2026 on every completed 2026 game, held out game margin error 10.0 points against the prior model's 10.4. Every price on this page carries its book, its source, and its capture date. Research and context · 21+.