Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars. Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +7.5. Pick: Under 42.5.

Spread.Market first: Jacksonville moved from roughly -2.5 to -4 at the earliest widely captured books to -7.5 after Philadelphia's two losses, Lane Johnson's retirement, the Cam Jurgens trade, and a damaging Wednesday practice report. Jacksonville is 3-1, has played efficient ball-control football, and has a major edge in London familiarity, so the favorite case is real. At +7.5, however, the market has charged Philadelphia a full premium for confirmed roster disruption while Jacksonville also listed six defensive starters or contributors as limited or out of practice, including Josh Hines-Allen and three defensive backs. I lean Eagles only at the hook. Our -4.5 Jacksonville number is not an edge: its own record is poor against the spread and it does not incorporate the Johnson retirement, Jurgens trade, or current availability. The live facts still make Jacksonville the better team, but the move beyond seven leaves a narrow buyback case.

Total.Market first: the total fell from 43 to 45.5 openers to 41.5 to 42.5 as Philadelphia's offense lost line continuity and carried major skill-position absences. That is a sound adjustment, not a blind under signal. I still lean under 42.5 because the Wednesday report leaves Barkley, Smith and new center Kendall out of practice, while Jacksonville's Week 4 profile was efficient and ball-control oriented. The forecast is benign, which subtracts from the under case, and Jacksonville's depleted secondary can create Philadelphia answers if Hurts has his primary weapons. Our 44.3 total is weak context only: its holdout error trails the market, it historically runs high, and it does not read the injury report. The lean survives at 42.5, not at 42.

Where our number looks wrong.The rating is stale on Philadelphia's rapid offensive-line upheaval and broad Week 5 availability issues, so its Jacksonville -4.5 should not be used to oppose the market move. It also gives no roster credit for Jacksonville's cluster of limited defensive players.

• The official Eagles report lists the Wednesday participation status for Philadelphia's key offensive players and Jacksonville's defenders.
• Jacksonville's Week 4 review described a ball-control approach and 111 rushing yards against Cincinnati.
• Sunday's Tottenham forecast shows light wind and limited precipitation around the afternoon.

Spread.Market first: Jacksonville moved from 2.5 to 4.5 early, to 5.5 after Saquon Barkley hurt his hamstring, and to 7.5 by Wednesday night after Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday and Cam Jurgens was traded on Wednesday. Philadelphia is 2-2, 0-4 ATS, and the offense ranks near the bottom in yards per play and EPA per play; Jacksonville is 3-1 and has allowed the fewest points in the league. That is a real downgrade and most of the move is earned. Our number of Jaguars 4.5 does not see any of it, so I discard it. My own build: start from the Monday 4.5 that already assumed Barkley and DeVonta Smith were doubtful, then add Johnson gone, Barkley and Tank Bigsby both unavailable, Greenard and Campbell DNP, and a center with a knee issue. That lands me near 6.5 to 7. Jurgens was already in concussion protocol and was not playing Sunday, so the trade itself adds nothing this week, yet it landed in the same window as the final jump. I lean Eagles plus the hook at 7.5, not a bet: the gap to my number is thin and the Eagles injury list could still worsen on Thursday and Friday.

Total.The total opened 43 to 45.5 and has been bet down to 41.5 to 42.5 as the Eagles injuries piled up. Under case: Philadelphia's offense was already near the bottom in yards per play and success rate, and now loses Barkley, Bigsby, Smith, Brown, Lane Johnson and maybe its center; Jacksonville has allowed the fewest points in the league. Over case: the Eagles defense is also short Greenard, Campbell and maybe Baun, Lawrence is playing well, and Eagles games are 3-1 to the over. Our model's 44.3 minus its 1.2 point bias is about 43.1 and sees none of the injuries, so I discount it. I lean under 42.5, where the Eagles side of the scoreboard looks too thin for a 20 point share, but the market has already moved most of the way.

Where our number looks wrong.Our Jaguars 4.5 is built from final margins and the projected QB flag only, so it misses Lane Johnson's retirement, Barkley, Smith, Brown and Bigsby all being out or doubtful, and the Eagles front seven absences. The real number is closer to 6.5 to 7 and the model is too short on Jacksonville; its 0.4 rating for Philadelphia also looks generous for a 0-4 ATS team ranked near the bottom in EPA per play.

• Barkley week to week with hamstring; Bigsby on IR; Jaguars defense has allowed the fewest points in the league
• Eagles skill and line absences plus defensive DNPs on Wednesday report
• Monday total 43.5 at DraftKings; over 3-1 in Eagles games, under 3-1 in Jaguars games

Spread.The strongest explanation for Jacksonville -7.5 is the injury list in our database: Philadelphia shows tight end Goedert, receivers D. Smith and H. Brown, and tackle F. Johnson all out as of the 10/1 practice report, plus linebacker Baun out with a concussion. That would explain a move from openers of -2.5 to -4 up to -7.5 across five books. My web search returned only the 2018 London game and no dated 2026 coverage, so I could not confirm whether those designations are current, whether any of them have since been resolved, or why the market moved this far. The move is large and mostly priced, and a neutral site removes home field. Taking Philadelphia plus the points on a post-move number would be a generic underdog angle with no incremental evidence I can verify. Taking Jacksonville at a hook past the key number of 7 would be chasing steam. I hold a thin lean toward the Eagles at best, not enough to name a limit the market does not offer.

Total.The total has fallen from openers of 43 to 45.5 down to 41.5 to 42.5, a drop of about two to four points at every book. The market explanation is the reported Philadelphia skill absences (Goedert, Smith, H. Brown out per our 10/1 injury scan) and a likely lower pace. That is already in the number. The case for over is that a 42 total with two functional quarterbacks and a neutral site invites some offensive variance, and Philadelphia absences also cut their own defense of Jaguars drives only if the secondary is affected, which I could not confirm. The case for under is the same injuries plus the lower scoring environment the market has already adopted. I found no dated weather forecast and no verified news, so I have nothing incremental over the market on either side.

• Game confirmed for 2026-10-11 at 2:30pm BST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium; no weather forecast available in search