San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks. Lean: San Francisco 49ers +3. Lean: Under 46.5.

Spread.Market first: Seattle laying 3 to 3.5 reflects home field, its healthier defensive front, and San Francisco losing Nick Bosa, James Thompson, Marques Sigle and Kyle Juszczyk. Leonard Williams has been cleared, which properly supports Seattle. Still, the 49ers have their core offensive players available, including Mike Evans, and +3.5 retains the most important spread hook in this range. Our Seattle minus 2.1 is only 1.1 points from the market and is not independent evidence given the model's documented ATS record.

Total.Market first: the drop from 47 to 47.5 at open to DraftKings 45.5 prices a lower-scoring division game, Seattle's defense and modest outdoor wind. That move is rational, particularly with Leonard Williams active. At 45.5, however, it has also absorbed an unusually large scoring discount without a quarterback absence or a primary 49ers skill player ruled out. Evans is cleared, McCaffrey and Trent Williams were full participants in the latest practice detail, and Seattle faces a defense without Bosa and Thompson. The forecast is dry near 56 to 60 degrees, with wind around 10 to 11 mph, a consideration but not a severe weather setup. Our total model is essentially at the price and has worse holdout error than the market, so it does not create the lean. Over 45.5 is a small price-based lean only.

Where our number looks wrong.The model understates the roster-specific effect of San Francisco's missing edge rusher and interior defender, then offers only a 1.1-point disagreement despite having no demonstrated ATS edge. It also cannot distinguish the Friday clearance of Leonard Williams or Mike Evans from generic continuity inputs.

• Final report confirms Seattle DT Leonard Williams is ready, with Bosa and Thompson ruled out for San Francisco.
• Forecast calls for dry conditions, 56 degrees at kickoff, 10 mph wind and gusts to 14 mph.
• Hourly forecast shows dry weather and 10 to 11 mph north to northwest wind during the afternoon.

Spread.Market first: Seattle is the defending division power at home, beat San Francisco 41-6 in the January divisional round, and the 49ers are without Nick Bosa, James Thompson Jr., Kyle Juszczyk and safety Marques Sigle, with nickel corner Upton Stout questionable after missing Friday practice. Against that, San Francisco is 4-0 and Seattle's backfield is thin: Zach Charbonnet is out, George Holani is questionable with ribs and Jadarian Price is on injured reserve, while linebacker Chazz Surratt and corner Julian Neal are also out. Mike Evans carries no designation and will play.

Total.Market first: the total opened 47 to 47.5 and has fallen to 45.5 to 46.5, reflecting two strong defenses in a familiar division matchup and a Seattle offense that threw for 168 yards last week. Under case: Seattle is down to a questionable Holani at running back, which slows its run game, and the Macdonald defense is healthy up front with Leonard Williams cleared. Over case: the 49ers lose Bosa, Thompson and Sigle, which should help Darnold, and San Francisco is scoring freely at 4-0 with Evans playing. Our model sits at 45.56, and after its known upward bias that is closer to 44.5, a modest under signal. The market move already captured much of this, so the BetMGM 46.5 is a lean, not a bet.

Where our number looks wrong.The rating does not see the 49ers losing their top two interior and edge rushers plus a starting safety, which argues Seattle should be a bit stronger than our -2.1, and it also does not see Seattle playing without its top two running backs.

• Preview lists Jadarian Price on injured reserve and Seattle -3 with a 47.5 total early in the week
• 49ers final statuses including four players out on defense and special teams
• Seahawks final statuses and thin running back group

Spread.The strongest explanation for that number is a home field edge for the stronger 2025 team plus the 49ers missing Nick Bosa and James Thompson Jr. up front. That absence looks fully priced, since the number opened around 3 and has barely moved. I could not verify Friday final designations, so my read relies on the Wednesday practice report in the dossier. San Francisco is 4-0 with Purdy back, and a division road underdog getting a full field goal or better is a fair price for a game that projects close. I see no incremental evidence that Seattle should be laid more than a field goal. This is a lean, not a bet: the margin over the number is thin and the pass-rush absence is real. Taking the hook at 3.5 would be better than 3 but the price is heavier.

Total.The total has fallen from 47 to 47.5 at open to 45.5 to 46.5 now, so the market already prices a slower game with the 49ers missing Bosa and Juszczyk. The case for the over is that Bosa out lowers Seattle pressure faced and weather is clean. The case for the under is two strong defenses, a division game with familiar opponents, and Seattle's 2025 defensive efficiency. The movement has taken most of the value, and I could not verify Friday designations or any pace edge.

• Forecast shows no wind or precipitation to depress scoring.
• Opening total 47.5 versus current 45.5 to 46.5.