New England Patriots at Detroit Lions. No call on the spread and no call on the total.
The call
Spread: lines pending. Total: no pick yet: the panel reviews this game Wednesday evening.
How to read this page
The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
Line movement · market
Not enough capture history on this game yet. Movement lands here once the odds capture has run more than once against this number before kickoff.
Model context
The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.
Our number on this game is for members. It is context; the panel makes the call.
Trends and splits
Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total are graded at each game's closing line, the last quote before kickoff at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. A game we have no capture for is graded at the number the league data carries.
- covered 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- the total has gone over in their last 4 games
- 13-1 straight up as a favorite (n=14, 2025 to 2026)
- covered 1 of their last 5, 1 push (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- 8-1 straight up in favored night games (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
Over and under splits
- the total went over in 7 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total is 9-2 to the over in day divisional games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- the total went over in 7 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total is 8-3 to the over as a favorite after a straight up loss (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 10-4 to the over in home day games (n=14, 2024 to 2026)
Every split we can compute on this game
- won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- covered 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- won 7 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- covered 6 of their last 10, 1 push (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total went over in 7 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total has gone over in their last 4 games
- 13-1 straight up as a favorite (n=14, 2025 to 2026)
- 12-1 straight up in favored outdoor games (n=13, 2025 to 2026)
- 12-1 straight up in favored turf games (n=13, 2025 to 2026)
- 11-1 straight up in favored day games (n=12, 2025 to 2026)
- 9-1 straight up in home favored games (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total is 9-2 to the over in day divisional games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 8-2 to the over in home underdog games (n=10, 2024 to 2025)
- 2-8 straight up in home underdog games (n=10, 2024 to 2025)
- the total is 14-4 to the over in home day games (n=18, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 2-7 to the over in road turf games (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 15-5 to the over at home (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 15-5 to the over in home outdoor games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 15-5 to the over in home turf games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 9-3 to the over in road grass games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 9-3 to the over on grass (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 6-2 to the over at home after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-2-1 against the number in road turf games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 8-3 to the over in outdoor grass games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- covered 1 of their last 5, 1 push (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- won 5 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- covered 2 of their last 10, 1 push (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total went over in 7 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- 8-1 straight up in favored night games (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-1 straight up in night turf games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 10-2 straight up after a straight up loss (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 10-2 straight up in road favored games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 9-2 straight up as a favorite after a straight up loss (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- 8-2 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 25-7 straight up as a favorite (n=32, 2024 to 2026)
- 10-3 straight up in road day games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 10-3 against the number in road day games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 19-6 straight up in favored indoor games (n=25, 2024 to 2026)
- 19-6 straight up in favored turf games (n=25, 2024 to 2026)
- 15-5 straight up at home (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 15-5 straight up in home favored games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 15-5 straight up in home indoor games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 15-5 straight up in home turf games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 9-3 against the number in road favored games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-2-1 against the number in favored night games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-2 straight up indoors after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 20-7 straight up indoors (n=27, 2024 to 2026)
The context, and where the numbers come from
The context we can hand you free
Rest. Detroit Lions 7 days · New England Patriots 7 days Rest comes straight from the schedule. Be careful reading it as an edge: we tested rest as an input to our number and it made out of sample error worse, so it is context, not a signal.
Venue. Neutral site: this game is played at FC Bayern Munich Arena, outdoors, not at Detroit Lions's stadium. The schedule names a designated home team, so the roof and surface it carries describe a building nobody plays in tonight; we print the real venue instead and take no home field for either side. Neither roof nor surface is an input to our number. They are here because you asked what the game looks like, not because we priced them.
The two numbers underneath
| Team | EL NFL Rating | Side |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 2.49 | Away |
| Detroit Lions | 3.25 | Home |
The rating is points versus a league average opponent on a neutral field. Our number carries no home field here: this game is at a neutral site, FC Bayern Munich Arena. It is a margin model, not a proven spread beater. Full board: the NFL power ratings.
Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.