Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers. No call on the spread and no call on the total.
The call
Spread: lines pending. Total: no pick yet: the panel reviews this game Wednesday evening.
How to read this page
The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
Who is on the injury report
- A. Banks OG Injured, knee Oct 26
- A. Campbell DL Injured, ankle Oct 26
- B. Cox Jr. DL Injured, quadricep Oct 26
- B. St-Juste CB Injured, hamstring Oct 26
- D. Wyatt DL Injured, ankle Oct 26
- M. Golden WR Injured, shoulder Oct 26
- S. Rhyan OG Injured, ankle Oct 26
- T. Glover OT Injured, knee Oct 26
- and 1 more
Latest daily scan (2026-10-28), real report rows only, as the source lists them; the report does not say who starts. Injuries are shown here as context and are not an input to our number or to any call.
Line movement · market
Not enough capture history on this game yet. Movement lands here once the odds capture has run more than once against this number before kickoff.
Model context
The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.
Our number on this game is for members. It is context; the panel makes the call.
Trends and splits
Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total are graded at each game's closing line, the last quote before kickoff at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. A game we have no capture for is graded at the number the league data carries.
- covered 2 of their last 5, 1 push (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- 3-14 straight up in road underdog games (n=17, 2024 to 2026)
- covered 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- covered 4 straight
- 9-3-1 straight up in road favored games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
Over and under splits
- the total went over in 6 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total is 8-2 to the over in day divisional games (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 10-3 to the over in divisional games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- the total went over in 3 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total is 2-6 to the over on grass after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
Every split we can compute on this game
- won 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- covered 2 of their last 5, 1 push (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- won 2 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- covered 3 of their last 10, 1 push (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total went over in 6 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- 3-14 straight up in road underdog games (n=17, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 8-2 to the over in day divisional games (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-14 straight up in underdog outdoor games (n=18, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-2 against the number on turf after a straight up loss (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 10-3 to the over in divisional games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 10-3 to the over in outdoor divisional games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 3-10 straight up in underdog grass games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-19 straight up as an underdog (n=25, 2024 to 2026)
- 5-15 straight up in underdog day games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 9-3 straight up in favored day games (n=12, 2024 to 2025)
- 3-9 straight up in underdog turf games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-2 against the number in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 6-2 to the over in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-6 straight up in night games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
- the total is 6-2 to the over in outdoor turf games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-15 straight up on the road (n=21, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-10 straight up in road outdoor games (n=14, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 10-4 to the over in road outdoor games (n=14, 2024 to 2026)
- 5-12 straight up in road day games (n=17, 2024 to 2026)
- won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- covered 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- the total went over in 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- won 4 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- covered 4 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- the total went over in 3 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- covered 4 straight
- the total has gone under in their last 4 games
- 9-3-1 straight up in road favored games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-6 straight up in road divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-6 straight up in road underdog games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-6 straight up in underdog divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 2-6 to the over on grass after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 3-8 to the over outdoors after a straight up loss (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- 15-6 straight up in outdoor day games (n=21, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 3-7 to the over in day games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 3-7 against the number on the road after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- the total is 3-7 to the over on the road after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 14-6 straight up in day grass games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 14-6 straight up in favored day games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-3-1 straight up as a favorite after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-3 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 9-4 straight up in home day games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-9 against the number in road favored games (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 17-8 straight up in favored outdoor games (n=25, 2024 to 2026)
The context, and where the numbers come from
The context we can hand you free
Rest. Green Bay Packers 7 days · Miami Dolphins 7 days Rest comes straight from the schedule. Be careful reading it as an edge: we tested rest as an input to our number and it made out of sample error worse, so it is context, not a signal.
Venue. Roof and surface on file: outdoors · grass. Neither roof nor surface is an input to our number. They are here because you asked what the game looks like, not because we priced them.
The two numbers underneath
| Team | EL NFL Rating | Side |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | -4.37 | Away |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.52 | Home |
The rating is points versus a league average opponent on a neutral field. Our number includes about 2 points of home field. It is a margin model, not a proven spread beater. Full board: the NFL power ratings.
Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.