Sam Houston's defense leaves the favorite exposed

Down 0.5 units going into this board.

New Mexico State had 13 full days between games. That rest edge is real. The road favorite has to carry it from the opening snap. I am not buying the road badge by itself. Sam Houston has flaws, plainly, but this matchup gives the home side something concrete to attack.

New Mexico State at Sam Houston

Sam Houston is +115 at BetMGM. New Mexico State’s last outing ended 22-3 at FIU, with three giveaways and a longest completion of 32 yards. That is the sort of tape that makes a short road favorite look expensive. Sam Houston’s pass defense gives up 137.8 yards per game, has kept five of six opponents under 200 passing yards, and the full defense has 34 tackles for loss with 12 sacks. New Mexico State averages 230.5 passing yards per game, so the Bearkats have a direct way to make each possession uncomfortable. Sam Houston quarterback Landyn Locke has 11 touchdown passes, enough to turn defensive stops into an outright result. I will take Sam Houston at +115 on BetMGM.

What beats it: New Mexico State’s ground game owning possession could compound Sam Houston’s scoring problems.

The offense is the crack in this case. I will stand behind the defensive matchup at this price. I will not dress it up as perfection.

Prices as captured Wednesday, Oct 21 at 9:14 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.