Jacksonville and Atlanta take aim on the road

Two road teams, two prices worth the trouble. Favorites get uncomfortable when recent facts do not sit neatly under their number.

Jaguars at Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars at +120 at BetMGM go to Cincinnati on Sunday. The teams both arrive at 2-1, but Jacksonville has put up 27.3 points per game while giving up 12.0, and Cincinnati has allowed 21.0. Cincinnati will be without Bengals rookie receiver Colbie Young, while Bengals slot corner Jalen Davis is on injured reserve. Its Wednesday injury report listed six names, and three of them did not practice. The Bengals have a thinner defense at the same time Jacksonville can put points on it. I will take Jacksonville to win at Cincinnati.

What beats it: The Bengals offense at home can take advantage of Jacksonville’s injured cornerbacks and undo this. Thursday and Friday practice participation for several Bengals and Jaguars is still unresolved. If Cincinnati gets healthy while Jacksonville loses key defenders, this breaks against Jacksonville.

Falcons at Saints

Atlanta Falcons at +124 at DraftKings play Monday night in New Orleans. Falcons quarterback Michael Penix came back, started at Green Bay, and Atlanta won 35-14. The Saints lost 35-27 to Las Vegas, and Atlanta arrives with a quarterback who just directed a road win after his return. Atlanta can win this game, not just keep it close. I will take Atlanta to win in New Orleans.

What beats it: Atlanta cornerback A.J. Terrell being on injured reserve leaves C.J. Henderson in Atlanta’s starting lineup, and that change can expose the Falcons. Penix had no final status posted, so his availability remains unresolved. The market moved from Saints -3.5 toward Atlanta after Penix returned, so some of the value may already be gone, and the Saints are home. If the Saints’ players hurt against Las Vegas are cleared, that helps New Orleans.

I am not here to make it comfortable. Both dogs have enough in front of them to finish the job.

Prices as captured Thursday, Oct 1 at 3:59 PM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.