Colts at Steelers: the price on the visitor

I am up 2.4 units. The number matters more than the noise.

Indianapolis arrives with a turnover problem. Pittsburgh has created four interceptions, while the Colts have produced one. That is the ugly part of this ticket, and it is not being hidden under a clever label.

Still, Pittsburgh’s own coaching staff has described its offense as herky jerky. A favorite asking for faith in a tight game should bring a cleaner attack than that. Indianapolis has also won two straight. I am not dressing this up as a flawless spot. I am taking the dog because the favorite has left room for one bad stretch to decide the afternoon.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts +124 at DraftKings is the outright dog I want. The Colts have won two straight, while Pittsburgh has an offense its own coaching staff has called herky jerky. Pittsburgh’s four interceptions against Indianapolis’ one make ball security the central danger, but that does not erase the favorite’s inability to establish a clean offensive identity. At +124, I will take the Colts to win the game outright. This is a price I will stand behind, not a claim that Indianapolis has solved every problem.

What beats it: Indianapolis availability problems, Pittsburgh defenders returning, and post-London fatigue could let the Steelers’ pass rush dictate the game.

The Colts need to avoid handing Pittsburgh short fields. That is the thin ice. But a close spread attached to a favorite with a sputtering offense is where the visitor gets interesting. The number is the point, and +124 is enough for me.

Prices as captured Friday, Oct 9 at 9:10 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.