The favorite's story has loose threads

Up 2.6 units going into this board.

The favorite gets a polished story this week. Fine. I am more interested in the places where that story rests on a soft opponent, a turnover swing, or an unsettled lineup. The moneyline asks for a win, so the case has to be sharper than a cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons at +120 on DraftKings is where I will take a stand. Tampa Bay’s big rushing outputs came against defenses near the bottom against the run, while Atlanta permits 88.9 rushing yards per game. Carolina handed Tampa Bay 17 points in the first half through turnovers, and a special-teams score added two more. Atlanta’s starter has nine touchdown throws, one interception, and eight yards per attempt. I like the dog and not the favorite’s recent shine.

What beats it: Atlanta’s unsettled tackle and defensive availability could let Tampa Bay control the ground and disrupt the passing game.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns at +172 on FanDuel is the other price I will take. Pittsburgh returned from Paris early Monday and changed its preparation, carries two injured-reserve players, and had two defenders miss Wednesday. Cleveland completed 25 passes on 36 throws for 308 yards at Tennessee. A home favorite can look tidy with that pile of loose pieces. I would stand behind Cleveland at this number, not a shorter one.

What beats it: Cleveland’s unresolved offensive-line availability could turn Pittsburgh’s pressure into the whole game as its corners return.

The price comes first. If the favorite owns the game, it owns it. These are the places where I see the other door.

Prices as captured Friday, Oct 30 at 1:47 PM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.