The Lab CFB ratings movers, week 10: Georgia wins 42 to 7 at Ole Miss, and Oregon beats Ohio State
CFB ratings movers, week 10: Georgia wins 42 to 7 at Ole Miss, and Oregon beats Ohio State
After week 10, Georgia's 42 to 7 win at Ole Miss kept it number 1 in our college football rating, Alabama's win at LSU moved Alabama to 2nd, Oregon's 41 to 28 win at Ohio State moved Oregon from 21st to 13th, and Florida Atlantic had the biggest gain. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Georgia won 42 to 7 at Ole Miss in week 10 and stays number 1 in our rating. Our rating expected Georgia to win by about 0.25, so the margin of 35, which counts as 28, was a miss of 27.750 points. Georgia gained 3.265 and is now at 27.062, while Ole Miss lost 3.265 and fell from 4th to 9th. Alabama won 31 to 13 at LSU, a margin of 18 against an expected minus 3.22, gained 2.496, and moved from 3rd to 2nd, while LSU fell from 2nd to 4th. Oregon beat Ohio State 41 to 28 on the road, gained 2.991, and moved from 21st to 13th, while Ohio State fell from 5th to 8th. Florida Atlantic had the biggest single gain, 4.164 after a 60 to 29 home win over UTSA, and moved up 22 spots. Central Michigan also moved up 22 spots, and Kansas State had the biggest drop, 21 spots, after losing 66 to 28 at home to Oklahoma State.
Every rating, rank, expected margin and move here is from our in-season CFB rating, the weekly update layer on top of each team’s preseason number. The week 10 rows were written after the week’s finals, and each team’s entering rating below equals its week 9 row, which we checked for all 138 teams. “Rank” always means rank in our rating across the 138 FBS teams we rate, not any poll. Figures are rounded from stored values. A rating and its move are each rounded to three decimals on their own, so a week 9 rating plus its move can miss the week 10 rating by 0.001.
How a move is computed
Each team’s rating moves by one number: a weight times its error. The error is the game’s margin, capped at 28, minus the margin our ratings expected. The expected margin is the team’s rating minus its opponent’s, plus 2.5 points for home field, minus 2.5 on the road, and nothing at a neutral site. The weight shrinks as the season goes on.
Worked example, Oregon on the road at Ohio State:
- Expected margin: Oregon’s entering rating of 10.855 minus Ohio State’s 20.777 is minus 9.922. Oregon was on the road, so subtract 2.5, for minus 12.422. Our rating had Ohio State winning by about 12.4.
- Actual margin: Oregon 41, Ohio State 28, so plus 13. That is under the cap of 28, so it counts in full.
- Error: 13 minus minus 12.422 is 25.422.
- Weight: Oregon’s weight for this game was 2/17, or 0.1176.
- Move: 25.422 times 2/17 is 2.991 rating points.
Ohio State, on the other side of the same game, also had a weight of 2/17. Its error was minus 25.422, and 25.422 times 2/17 is a loss of 2.991, the same size as Oregon’s gain because both teams carried the same weight.
That weight comes from setting the preseason prior to be worth about eight games of evidence. We walk through that choice in the preseason prior is worth eight games. Two consequences matter for this week. Each team’s weight depends on how many games it has already played: 120 teams carried 2/17 and 5 carried 2/18 (Old Dominion, Sacramento State, James Madison, San José State and Eastern Michigan). The other 13 teams were idle. And nothing past 28 points counts, even when the opponent was supposed to be much worse.
Why a loss can raise a rating
Sacramento State is the clean case. It lost 20 to 17 at home to Toledo, a margin of -3, and its rating went up 1.835. Our rating expected Toledo to win by about 19.51: Sacramento State’s entering minus 21.717 minus Toledo’s 0.296 is minus 22.013, and Sacramento State’s home game adds 2.5, for minus 19.513. The error is minus 3 minus minus 19.513, which is 16.513, and 2/18 of that is +1.835. Sacramento State went from a rating of minus 21.717 to minus 19.882 and moved from 138th to 137th. Toledo, with a weight of 2/17, lost 1.943 for the win and fell from 63rd to 79th.
It was not the only one. TCU lost 29 to 28 at Arizona, a margin of -1 against an expected minus 11.38, and gained 1.221. Arizona’s home win cost it 1.221 and dropped it from 16th to 21st. Northern Illinois, last week’s case, lost 30 to 19 at San José State, a margin of -11 against an expected minus 13.41, and gained 0.284, but Sacramento State’s gain moved it past Northern Illinois, which is now 138th. Across the week, 13 teams lost and still gained rating points, and 14 won and lost them.
Week 10 also had a rated team play an FCS opponent, and that game was one of those 14. Wake Forest beat Merrimack, an FCS team, 77 to 0 at home. The margin of 77 counts as 28, the cap. We pin every FCS opponent at a rating of minus 22, so Wake Forest’s expected margin was its 13.314 minus minus 22, plus 2.5 for home field, or 37.814. The error was 28 minus 37.814, which is minus 9.814, and 2/17 of that is a loss of 1.155. Wake Forest moved from 14th to 17th. Last week’s edition noted that no FCS opponent entered any move, so the minus 22 rule did not touch a rating then.
None of that is a verdict on the games. With Toledo expected by 19.5, a 3 point home loss beat the expectation by 16.5 points, and beating the expectation is what moves the number up. A 77 to 0 win that falls short of an expected 37.8, after the cap, does the opposite.
Biggest risers
Margin and expected margin are from the team’s side. “Site” is home, road or neutral for the risers and fallers, taken from the game results.
| Team | Our rank, wk 9 to wk 10 | Rating change | Opponent | Site | Margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 94 to 72 | +4.164 | UTSA | Home | +31 (counts as 28) | -7.40 |
| Tulsa | 91 to 74 | +3.656 | Tulane | Road | +50 (counts as 28) | -3.08 |
| Central Michigan | 119 to 97 | +3.297 | Eastern Michigan | Neutral | +28 | -0.03 |
| Georgia | 1 to 1 | +3.265 | Ole Miss | Road | +35 (counts as 28) | +0.25 |
| Oklahoma State | 42 to 34 | +3.138 | Kansas State | Road | +38 (counts as 28) | +1.33 |
| Oregon | 21 to 13 | +2.991 | Ohio State | Road | +13 | -12.42 |
| Texas State | 54 to 42 | +2.840 | Oregon State | Road | +21 | -3.14 |
| Duke | 36 to 26 | +2.719 | NC State | Road | +38 (counts as 28) | +4.89 |
Florida Atlantic had the largest single gain of the week. Its 60 to 29 home win over UTSA came when our rating expected UTSA by 7.40, an error of 35.398 after the 31 point margin was capped at 28, and lifted it from minus 5.265 to minus 1.100. Tulsa won 60 to 10 at Tulane, a margin of 50 that counted as 28, against an expected minus 3.08, and moved up 17 spots. Central Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 35 to 7 at a neutral site and moved up 22 spots, tied with Florida Atlantic for the most of any team.
Biggest fallers
Every faller is the other side of a riser’s game.
| Team | Our rank, wk 9 to wk 10 | Rating change | Opponent | Site | Margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 44 to 62 | -4.164 | Florida Atlantic | Road | -31 (counts as -28) | +7.40 |
| Tulane | 87 to 104 | -3.656 | Tulsa | Home | -50 (counts as -28) | +3.08 |
| Eastern Michigan | 118 to 129 | -3.114 | Central Michigan | Neutral | -28 | +0.03 |
| Ole Miss | 4 to 9 | -3.265 | Georgia | Home | -35 (counts as -28) | -0.25 |
| Kansas State | 61 to 82 | -3.138 | Oklahoma State | Home | -38 (counts as -28) | -1.33 |
| Ohio State | 5 to 8 | -2.991 | Oregon | Home | -13 | +12.42 |
| Oregon State | 50 to 58 | -2.840 | Texas State | Home | -21 | +3.14 |
| NC State | 73 to 87 | -2.719 | Duke | Home | -38 (counts as -28) | -4.89 |
Kansas State’s 21 spot drop was the biggest of the week. Oklahoma State won 66 to 28 at Kansas State, a margin of 38 that counted as 28, against an expected 1.33. UTSA fell 18 spots after losing 60 to 29 at Florida Atlantic, and Tulane fell 17 after losing 60 to 10 at home to Tulsa.
Each game pairs the two teams, but each side moves by its own weight, so the two moves match only when both teams have the same weight. One of these eight pairs does not match. Central Michigan gained 3.297 at 2/17 while Eastern Michigan lost 3.114 at 2/18. The other seven pairs matched because both teams carried 2/17. The heavier weight went to the team with fewer games played.
The top 10 after week 10
Georgia is number 1 in our rating, at 27.062, up 3.265 from 23.797. Alabama is second at 24.094 and Texas third at 21.277. Georgia leads Alabama by 2.968.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Change from week 9 | Rank last week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 27.062 | +3.265 | 1 |
| 2 | Alabama | 24.094 | +2.496 | 3 |
| 3 | Texas | 21.277 | +1.384 | 6 |
| 4 | LSU | 19.821 | -2.496 | 2 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 19.481 | +0.528 | 7 |
| 6 | Tennessee | 18.847 | +2.363 | 9 |
| 7 | Miami | 18.415 | -0.528 | 8 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 17.786 | -2.991 | 5 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 17.782 | -3.265 | 4 |
| 10 | Indiana | 15.923 | 0.000 | 10 |
Georgia’s 42 to 7 win at Ole Miss was by 35, which counted as 28, against an expected 0.25. The error was 27.750, and 2/17 of that is a gain of 3.265. Alabama won 31 to 13 at LSU, a margin of 18 against an expected minus 3.22, gained 2.496, and moved from 3rd to 2nd, while LSU lost the same 2.496 and fell two spots to 4th. Texas won 34 to 20 at Missouri, a margin of 14 against an expected 2.24, gained 1.384, and moved from 6th to 3rd, while Missouri fell from 12th to 15th. Notre Dame beat Miami 31 to 24 at home, a margin of 7 against an expected 2.51, gained 0.528, and moved from 7th to 5th, and Miami lost 0.528 and moved from 8th to 7th. Tennessee beat Kentucky 34 to 6 at home, a margin of 28 against an expected 7.92, gained 2.363, and moved from 9th to 6th. Ohio State and Ole Miss fell to 8th and 9th, and they are 0.004 apart. Indiana was idle and stayed 10th. In all, 13 teams were idle in week 10, and 1 of them was in the top 10: Indiana. USC was also idle and moved from 18th to 19th as others passed it.
Next week
20 of the 138 teams moved 10 or more spots in our rating this week, and 3 moved 20 or more: Florida Atlantic up 22 spots, Central Michigan up 22 and Kansas State down 21. Last week’s edition listed six week 10 games between two teams in our top 20. They came out as follows: Alabama (3rd) won 31 to 13 at LSU (2nd), Georgia (1st) won 42 to 7 at Ole Miss (4th), Texas (6th) won 34 to 20 at Missouri (12th), South Carolina (13th) won 17 to 9 at home over Texas A&M (20th), Tennessee (9th) won 34 to 6 at home over Kentucky (19th), and Notre Dame (7th) won 31 to 24 at home over Miami (8th). The team ranked higher in our rating won five of the six, and LSU, ranked above Alabama, was the exception.
Week 11 has four games between two teams in our top 20 after week 10: USC (19th) at Indiana (10th), Missouri (15th) at Georgia (1st), Ole Miss (9th) at Oklahoma (20th), and Texas (3rd) at LSU (4th). The full board, in-season through week 10, is on our college football power ratings page.