The Lab CFB ratings movers, week 5: Missouri climbs 12 spots, and LSU drops after a 49 point win
CFB ratings movers, week 5: Missouri climbs 12 spots, and LSU drops after a 49 point win
After week 5, Missouri's 28 point win over Florida was the biggest swing in our college football rating, and LSU lost rating points despite winning by 49. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Missouri beat Florida by 28 points in week 5, and our rating expected Florida to win by about 6. That 34 point miss made it the biggest swing of the week: Missouri gained 5.22 rating points and moved from 25th to 13th in our rating, while Florida lost the same 5.22 and fell from 7th to 16th. LSU went the other way on a happier scoreboard. The Tigers beat McNeese by 49 and still lost 2.93 rating points, because our rating expected them to win by about 47 and the margin we count stops at 28.
Every number here is from our in-season CFB rating, the weekly update layer on top of each team’s preseason number. The week 5 rows were written on October 5, 2026, after Saturday’s finals. “Rank” always means rank in our rating across the 138 FBS teams we rate, not any poll.
How a move is computed
Each team’s rating moves by one number: a weight times its error. The error is the game’s margin, capped at 28, minus the margin our ratings expected. The expected margin is the team’s rating minus its opponent’s, plus 2.5 points for home field and nothing at a neutral site. The weight shrinks as the season goes on.
Worked example, Missouri at home against Florida:
- Expected margin: 9.024 minus 17.476, plus 2.5 for home field, is minus 5.95. Our rating had Florida winning by about 6.
- Actual margin: Missouri 45, Florida 17, so plus 28. That is right at the cap, so it counts in full.
- Error: 28 minus negative 5.95 is 33.95.
- Weight: a team’s fifth game, with four already played, carries a weight of 2/13, or 0.1538.
- Move: 0.1538 times 33.95 is 5.22 rating points. Florida, on the other side of the same game, loses 5.22.
That weight comes from setting the preseason prior to be worth about eight games of evidence. We walk through that choice in the preseason prior is worth eight games. Two consequences matter for this week. Each team’s weight depends on how many games it has already played: a team in its fourth game, like Arizona State or Northwestern, carries 2/12, and a team in its sixth, like Eastern Michigan, carries 2/14. And nothing past 28 points counts, even when the opponent was supposed to be much worse.
Why a win can lower a rating
LSU is the clean case. Non-FBS opponents are pinned at minus 22 in our rating, so against McNeese, an FCS team, the expected margin was 22.54 plus 22 plus 2.5 for home field, or about 47. LSU won 63 to 14, a margin of 49, but the update counts only 28. The error is 28 minus 47.04, which is minus 19.04, and 0.1538 times that is minus 2.93. LSU went from 4th to 7th, from a rating of 22.54 to 19.61.
That is not a verdict on the game. With about 47 expected and nothing past 28 counted, no score against McNeese could have held LSU’s number, let alone raised it.
Biggest risers
Margin and expected margin are from the team’s side. “Site” is home or road for the risers and fallers, taken from the game record.
| Team | Our rank, wk 4 to wk 5 | Rating change | Opponent | Site | Margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 25 to 13 | +5.22 | Florida | Home | +28 | -5.95 |
| Eastern Michigan | 128 to 110 | +4.66 | Massachusetts | Road | +24 | -8.60 |
| Baylor | 45 to 29 | +4.03 | Arizona State | Road | +36 (counts as 28) | +1.79 |
| Oregon State | 73 to 51 | +4.00 | Colorado State | Road | +30 (counts as 28) | +2.01 |
| Northwestern | 31 to 20 | +3.78 | Penn State | Home | +21 | -1.65 |
| New Mexico State | 125 to 105 | +3.75 | Western Kentucky | Home | +21 | -3.34 |
| Wisconsin | 48 to 34 | +3.59 | Michigan State | Home | +28 | +4.67 |
| Florida State | 28 to 18 | +3.56 | Virginia | Home | +31 (counts as 28) | +4.87 |
Eastern Michigan’s 24 point win came when our rating expected it to lose by about 9, a 33 point gap, and Northwestern’s 21 point win over Penn State came when it expected Penn State by about 2. Baylor and Oregon State both won by more than 28, but the part past 28 did not count.
Biggest fallers
Every faller is the other side of a riser’s game.
| Team | Our rank, wk 4 to wk 5 | Rating change | Opponent | Site | Margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 7 to 16 | -5.22 | Missouri | Road | -28 | +5.95 |
| Massachusetts | 102 (tied) to 124 | -5.02 | Eastern Michigan | Home | -24 | +8.60 |
| Arizona State | 63 to 85 | -4.37 | Baylor | Home | -36 (counts as -28) | -1.79 |
| Colorado State | 95 to 119 | -4.00 | Oregon State | Home | -30 (counts as -28) | -2.01 |
| Western Kentucky | 93 to 117 | -3.75 | New Mexico State | Road | -21 | +3.34 |
| Michigan State | 60 to 74 | -3.59 | Wisconsin | Road | -28 | -4.67 |
| Virginia | 41 to 57 | -3.56 | Florida State | Road | -31 (counts as -28) | -4.87 |
| Penn State | 18 to 32 | -3.48 | Northwestern | Road | -21 | +1.65 |
Each game pairs the two teams, but each side moves by its own weight, so the two moves match only when both teams have played the same number of games. Three of these eight pairs do not match. Eastern Michigan gained 4.66 at 2/14 while Massachusetts lost 5.02 at 2/13. Northwestern gained 3.78 at 2/12 while Penn State lost 3.48 at 2/13. Baylor gained 4.03 at 2/13 while Arizona State lost 4.37 at 2/12.
The top 10 after week 5
Alabama is number 1 in our rating, after a 33 point win over Mississippi State that our rating expected to be about 8 points (counted at the 28 cap). It moved from 23.12 to 26.18 and from 3rd to 1st. Georgia, number 1 a week ago, is second at 24.87. Its 24 point win over Vanderbilt added only 0.32, because our rating had expected Georgia by about 22.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Change from week 4 | Rank last week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 26.18 | +3.06 | 3 |
| 2 | Georgia | 24.87 | +0.32 | 1 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 24.34 | +0.95 | 2 |
| 4 | Texas | 21.96 | idle | 6 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 21.25 | -1.27 | 5 |
| 6 | Miami | 20.37 | +3.21 | 8 |
| 7 | LSU | 19.61 | -2.93 | 4 |
| 8 | Indiana | 16.66 | +1.38 | 10 |
| 9 | Utah | 16.17 | idle | 9 |
| 10 | Tennessee | 15.40 | +0.43 | 11 |
Texas and Utah were idle in week 5, so their ratings did not move. Texas moved up two spots anyway, from 6th to 4th, because LSU and Notre Dame both lost rating. Notre Dame won by 11 over North Carolina and lost 1.27 rating points, because our rating had expected Notre Dame by about 19. Miami’s 28 point win over Clemson, against an expected margin of about 7, was worth 3.21.
Next week
37 of the 138 teams moved 10 or more spots in our rating this week, and 6 moved 20 or more. Week 6 puts our top two on the same field, Georgia at Alabama, and Missouri hosts Texas A&M, tied for 11th, two spots above it. The full board, in-season through week 5, is on our college football power ratings page.