The Lab Raiders, Bengals and Browns, moved through the key numbers
Raiders, Bengals and Browns, moved through the key numbers
Three legs, six points each, and a football reason under every one of them.
By Stack Saturday morning, and the card is built.
I do not need three pretty games. I need three teams with a real reason to get there, and six points that carry each of them through the numbers that matter. Here is what I am standing behind, and where it can go wrong.
The card
The card is graded at the standard three-team, six-point teaser price of +160. A push on any leg makes the card a loss.
| Leg | Game | Original | Teased |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals -7 | Cincinnati Bengals -1 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | Cleveland Browns +2.5 | Cleveland Browns +8.5 |
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
The Las Vegas Raiders go from +3.5 to +9.5, and those six points carry them past 7, so a touchdown loss still covers the leg. This is the leg I like most, because the Raiders offense has shown up every single week. They are 3-1, they score 28.8 points a game, and they have put up at least 26 in every outing. Their only loss was 30-27 to the Chiefs. The New England Patriots score 16.3 a game. When the scoring gap between two teams looks like that, I will take the side that puts points on the board and ask it only to stay inside +9.5.
What beats it: A healthier Patriots secondary. Cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis both missed Wednesday practice, and if both play, the Raiders lose the matchup they want on the outside. Tight end Brock Bowers was limited with a knee, and a thinner Raiders passing game against a Patriots defense that ranks well in points allowed can turn this into a loss by double digits. The Raiders also gave up nearly 400 yards to the Chiefs, and the Patriots already won 29-26 in Buffalo without Gonzalez.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
The Cincinnati Bengals move from -7 to -1, through both 3 and 7, and that turns a road number I would not lay into a much simpler ask of the Bengals against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are 0-4, score 11.5 points a game, and have not scored more than 13 in any of their four games. Their latest was a 15-10 loss at Minnesota. Cincinnati scores 24.3 a game, and Miami gives up 25.3 while allowing a league high completion rate. At -1 the Bengals have to win by more than a point, and nothing more. I like the side at this number without having bet it, and the six points are the whole reason it is on the card.
What beats it: The receiver room. Ja’Marr Chase, a Bengals wide receiver, is questionable and needs clearance from an independent neurologist after a concussion, and fellow receiver Tee Higgins did not practice Friday. If both sit, Cincinnati is throwing to depth players with a ground game that has gone nowhere, and a Bengals defense giving up 5.7 yards per play can let a weak Miami offense hang around deep into the fourth quarter.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
The Cleveland Browns go from +2.5 to +8.5, through 3 and 7, against a New York Jets offense that has stopped working. The Jets are 1-3 and fell 23-12 at Chicago in a game where they ran 32 plays, gained 157 yards and went 0 for 7 on third down. The Browns are 3-1 and beat the Steelers 27-24 last time out, throwing for 268 yards. At +8.5 I am asking Cleveland to stay inside a touchdown and change against a team that could not stay on the field. I like the side, I did not bet it, and the six points do the heavy lifting here.
What beats it: A thin Cleveland front. Three Browns defensive linemen sat out Wednesday practice: Barnett with an ankle, Graham with knee and ankle trouble, and Hall Jr. with an ankle. If that group cannot go, the Jets can keep handing the ball off at home, shorten the game and grind out a margin. The Browns’ 3-1 start came on close finishes, and their line has been giving up sacks with guard Teven Jenkins in doubt.
That is the card. The Raiders leg is the one I stand behind hardest, and the Bengals and Browns are sides I like at these numbers without having bet them. A teaser still needs all three to get there, and I will not pretend otherwise.
Prices as captured Saturday, Oct 10 at 7:17 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.
Not ready to join? Get the board by email.
The free picks and how last week's Picks graded. Free. No spam. 21+. Unsubscribe anytime.