The Lab Packers, Lions and Buccaneers through the key numbers
Packers, Lions and Buccaneers through the key numbers
Green Bay through 3 and 7, Detroit down to a straight win, and a Tampa Bay defense with 12 points of room to work with.
0 and 2 on the cards, down 2.0 units going into this board. Time to build a better one.
I am building this card the way I like to build anything: one piece at a time, and every piece has to earn its spot. Each leg below has a reason in the game itself, not just a number that looks good on paper.
Three teams, three different games, each one moved through the numbers that decide football games.
The card
The card is graded at the standard three-team, six-point teaser price of +160. A push on any leg makes the card a loss.
| Leg | Game | Original | Teased |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots | Green Bay Packers +3 | Green Bay Packers +9 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins | Detroit Lions -6.5 | Detroit Lions -0.5 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 |
Packers at Patriots
The Green Bay Packers go from +3 to +9, and that move carries them over both 3 and 7, the two margins that matter most in this sport. These are two 5 and 3 teams meeting on Sunday. New England has won all three of its home games, and the number has climbed from 1.5 up to 3 during the week. I do not need Green Bay to win. I need the Patriots to win by 8 or fewer, or not win at all, against a club with the same record they have. This is the leg I would stand behind first.
What beats it: New England getting its skill players back. Wide receiver A.J. Brown, tight end Hunter Henry and running back TreVeyon Henderson all sat out Wednesday, and their game designations were not final. If all three suit up, the Patriots have their full attack at home, Green Bay is still short along its own offensive line, and a two touchdown home win is on the table.
Lions at Dolphins
The Detroit Lions move from -6.5 to -0.5. Those six points carry them through 3 and turn this leg into the plainest ask on the card: win the game. Detroit comes in at 5-2. Miami sits at 1-6. Once the hook is all that is left, the Lions do not have to cover anything at all. They just have to finish ahead of a team that has won one game all year.
What beats it: A thin Lions defense on the road. Detroit ruled out a long list of players on its final report, including its center and several defensive starters, with three more questionable. A banged up road team that falls behind early gives Miami a real path to win outright, and anything short of a Detroit win sinks this leg.
Buccaneers at Bears
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers go from +6 to +12, through 7 and well past it. This is the defense I like most on the whole card. Since Week 5, no unit in the league has given up less per snap by EPA, it has 16 takeaways, and it just shut out the Falcons 16-0 while the offense ran for 324 yards in driving rain. A team that can grind on the ground and take the ball away keeps a game short, and 12 points is a lot of room in a short game.
What beats it: A passing game that has gone missing. The Buccaneers did not complete a single pass against Atlanta, and if Chicago jumps out early, Tampa Bay has shown no way to come from behind. Injury questions on that offense were not settled when the report was filed, and the line has already climbed from 3.5 to 6.5 toward the Bears.
None of these three has to look pretty. All three have to get home.
Prices as captured Saturday, Nov 7 at 7:52 AM ET. Adults 21 and over only. This is research and entertainment, not a recommendation to bet.
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