EDGE LABS Market intelligence Our 2026 college football win total positions, conference winner and championship futures, priced against five seasons of CFB data before the season started. We walked every team's 2026 schedule, put a number on it, and took a position wherever our number and the posted total disagreed by two full wins or more. Every position carries its market source, its gap, and the data behind it, and grades at season end at the number shown here. The market column is a snapshot: VegasInsider stopped listing win totals once the season began, so prices on this page were last refreshed Sep 10, 2026 and will not move. For where every team stands against these totals today, see the win total standings.
Snapshot · Aug 25, 2026Market numbers: BetMGM and DraftKings via VegasInsider. Our numbers: the EL Preseason Rating v1, same date. Every position here was locked before week 1 at the total posted then and grades at season end at that number. In-season line moves and results do not add or remove positions.
The rule, so you can check it: a team makes this board when our expected wins and the posted total disagree by 2.00 wins or more. 7 teams clear it today. Anything from 1.50 to 1.99 goes to the lower confidence shelf below, and anything under 1.50 carries no lean at all. Every gap in this table is the one in the full slate table further down.
| Team | Market | Our number | Gap | Our lean | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | Win total 6.5over +105 to +110 | 3.01 | -3.49 | UNDER 6.5 | The widest gap on the board. Returning production grades 2.46 rating points below the FBS average, the prior season costs another 8.90, and the schedule walk comes back at 3.01 wins against 6.5. |
| UCLA | Win total 6.5over +100 to +110, all books now on 6.5 | 3.61 | -2.89 | UNDER 6.5 | The model charges 2.1 rating points for the first year staff and last season sits 5.29 below the field. BetMGM and DraftKings now both hang 6.5, a bounce the components do not show. Our number says 3.61. |
| Florida State | Win total 5.5over -165 to -175 | 7.88 | +2.38 | OVER 5.5 | New to the board on the Aug 25 numbers. Our walk returns 7.88 wins against a 5.5 line, the widest over gap anywhere on the slate. The over already costs -165 to -175, so the books lean this way too and we are paying for the number rather than finding it cheap. |
| Boise State | Win total 8.5over +150 at DraftKings, BetMGM hangs 7.5 | 6.18 | -2.32 | UNDER 8.5 | An 8.5 hung on a talent base that grades below the FBS average. The name is doing the pricing and our walk returns 6.18 wins. BetMGM already hangs 7.5, drifting toward our side. |
| Iowa State | Win total 4.5over -136 to -145 | 6.61 | +2.11 | OVER 4.5 | The books were split between 4.5 and 5.5 and settled on 4.5, the lower of the two. Our walk says 6.61 wins, so the number the market picked is the one our gap is widest against. That move carried this off the lower confidence shelf and onto the board. |
| Virginia Tech | Win total 6.5over -170 to -175 | 4.47 | -2.03 | UNDER 6.5 | The books lean the other way here, over juiced to -170 or worse, which makes our under the plus money side. The number says 4.47 wins on a 6.5 line and most of the gap is a prior season the market has already forgiven. |
| North Texas | Win total 5.5over -130 at both books | 7.51 | +2.01 | OVER 5.5 | The schedule walk lands at 7.51 wins on a 5.5 line, two full wins of cushion. Prior season performance is worth 7.38 rating points against the field and the 2026 slate lets it carry. |
The board is held to its own threshold on every refresh. On the Aug 25, 2026 numbers, Texas, Indiana, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee all landed between 1.5 and 1.9 wins and moved down to the lower confidence shelf. These carry no lean at all:
10 leans carry a thinner cushion than the top of the board, against a model whose held out error is 1.88 wins. That error is the uncertainty on every number here. We publish the direction because it is earned and we downgrade the conviction because the cushion is thin. No cards on these, smaller sizing if you play them at all, and they move up only if the number does.
Two more land in the lower band on the line our board file carries, and both are unresolved book splits. DraftKings hangs 7.5 on Fresno State while BetMGM sits 6.5, and DraftKings hangs 3.5 on San José State while BetMGM sits 4.5. On the number our board file carries neither gap reaches a full win, so neither goes on a shelf until the books agree.
Market lines: VegasInsider win totals board (BetMGM and DraftKings), captured Sep 22, 2026. Our numbers: the EL Preseason Rating v1, same date.
Every posted total we could source, all 138 lined FBS teams, against our expected wins number. 136 carry a rating; North Dakota State and Sacramento State moved up from the FCS this season and sit at the bottom with their market lines and no rating until they build FBS data. Sorted by the size of the disagreement. Gaps of a full win or more get the flag (38 teams clear it); anything smaller is noise against the model's 1.88 win average error. The 7 leans on the board are the ones we put our name on, the lower confidence shelf holds the next 10, and the rest of the flags are where we look next.
| Team | Market line | Our number | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State UNDER | 9.5 | 6.18 | -3.32 |
| Rutgers OVER | 2.5 | 5.53 | +3.03 |
| Virginia Tech UNDER | 7.5 | 4.47 | -3.03 |
| Massachusetts UNDER | 5.5 | 2.56 | -2.94 |
| UCLA UNDER | 6.5 | 3.61 | -2.89 |
| Hawai'i OVER | 5.5 | 8.35 | +2.85 |
| Florida State OVER | 5.5 | 7.88 | +2.38 |
| LSU UNDER | 9.5 | 7.19 | -2.31 |
| Iowa State OVER | 4.5 | 6.61 | +2.11 |
| Georgia Tech OVER | 4.5 | 6.55 | +2.05 |
| Indiana UNDER | 10.5 | 8.60 | -1.90 |
| Southern Miss OVER | 3.5 | 5.28 | +1.78 |
| Wisconsin UNDER | 6.5 | 4.74 | -1.76 |
| Fresno State UNDER | 7.5 | 5.78 | -1.72 |
| Texas UNDER | 9.5 | 7.78 | -1.72 |
| Navy UNDER | 8.5 | 6.83 | -1.67 |
| Northern Illinois OVER | 3.5 | 5.17 | +1.67 |
| Louisiana Tech OVER | 5.5 | 7.11 | +1.61 |
| UConn OVER | 5.5 | 7.11 | +1.61 |
| Middle Tennessee OVER | 3.5 | 5.09 | +1.59 |
| Akron OVER | 4.5 | 6.04 | +1.54 |
| Virginia UNDER | 8.5 | 7.00 | -1.50 |
| Oklahoma State UNDER | 4.5 | 3.01 | -1.49 |
| Toledo OVER | 7.5 | 8.98 | +1.48 |
| Purdue OVER | 2.5 | 3.97 | +1.47 |
| Missouri State OVER | 3.5 | 4.95 | +1.45 |
| Memphis UNDER | 8.5 | 7.18 | -1.32 |
| Charlotte OVER | 1.5 | 2.78 | +1.28 |
| Texas A&M OVER | 8.5 | 9.78 | +1.28 |
| Pittsburgh UNDER | 8.5 | 7.26 | -1.24 |
| Vanderbilt OVER | 5.5 | 6.73 | +1.23 |
| Wyoming OVER | 4.5 | 5.71 | +1.21 |
| Texas Tech UNDER | 11.5 | 10.34 | -1.16 |
| Clemson OVER | 7.5 | 8.64 | +1.14 |
| Arizona State UNDER | 6.5 | 5.46 | -1.04 |
| Kent State OVER | 3.5 | 4.53 | +1.03 |
| North Carolina UNDER | 5.5 | 4.49 | -1.01 |
| North Texas OVER | 6.5 | 7.51 | +1.01 |
| Louisville | 8.5 | 7.51 | -0.99 |
| Liberty | 7.5 | 6.57 | -0.93 |
| Penn State | 9.5 | 8.57 | -0.93 |
| Utah | 8.5 | 9.43 | +0.93 |
| Oklahoma | 8.5 | 7.59 | -0.91 |
| Georgia Southern | 5.5 | 4.60 | -0.90 |
| Florida | 7.5 | 6.61 | -0.89 |
| Florida International | 5.5 | 6.39 | +0.89 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 6.61 | -0.89 |
| Alabama | 8.5 | 7.62 | -0.88 |
| Kentucky | 4.5 | 3.62 | -0.88 |
| Washington State | 5.5 | 6.38 | +0.88 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 10.36 | +0.86 |
| Tulsa | 6.5 | 5.64 | -0.86 |
| UL Monroe | 3.5 | 4.36 | +0.86 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.5 | 4.65 | -0.85 |
| NC State | 6.5 | 7.35 | +0.85 |
| UAB | 3.5 | 4.35 | +0.85 |
| Colorado State | 4.5 | 3.66 | -0.84 |
| UTEP | 3.5 | 4.28 | +0.78 |
| Utah State | 5.5 | 4.75 | -0.75 |
| Kansas State | 8.5 | 7.76 | -0.74 |
| West Virginia | 5.5 | 4.77 | -0.73 |
| Minnesota | 6.5 | 5.81 | -0.69 |
| Wake Forest | 6.5 | 5.81 | -0.69 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.5 | 6.18 | +0.68 |
| Oregon State | 4.5 | 3.82 | -0.68 |
| Notre Dame | 11.5 | 10.83 | -0.67 |
| Bowling Green | 4.5 | 5.15 | +0.65 |
| Houston | 8.5 | 7.86 | -0.64 |
| Syracuse | 4.5 | 3.90 | -0.60 |
| Georgia | 10.5 | 9.93 | -0.57 |
| Washington | 8.5 | 7.95 | -0.55 |
| Buffalo | 5.5 | 6.04 | +0.54 |
| Duke | 6.5 | 5.96 | -0.54 |
| Old Dominion | 7.5 | 6.96 | -0.54 |
| South Florida | 8.5 | 7.97 | -0.53 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.5 | 6.00 | -0.50 |
| San José State | 5.5 | 5.00 | -0.50 |
| Kansas | 5.5 | 5.99 | +0.49 |
| UCF | 6.5 | 6.04 | -0.46 |
| South Alabama | 5.5 | 5.95 | +0.45 |
| Maryland | 5.5 | 5.93 | +0.43 |
| Ohio | 7.5 | 7.07 | -0.43 |
| Baylor | 5.5 | 5.92 | +0.42 |
| James Madison | 8.5 | 8.08 | -0.42 |
| Oregon | 10.5 | 10.09 | -0.41 |
| Ole Miss | 8.5 | 8.11 | -0.39 |
| Miami | 10.5 | 10.12 | -0.38 |
| Auburn | 6.5 | 6.87 | +0.37 |
| Texas State | 6.5 | 6.13 | -0.37 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5.5 | 5.14 | -0.36 |
| Georgia State | 4.5 | 4.14 | -0.36 |
| New Mexico | 7.5 | 7.14 | -0.36 |
| Illinois | 6.5 | 6.84 | +0.34 |
| Ball State | 3.5 | 3.83 | +0.33 |
| Cincinnati | 5.5 | 5.19 | -0.31 |
| Northwestern | 5.5 | 5.81 | +0.31 |
| Michigan | 7.5 | 7.80 | +0.30 |
| Michigan State | 4.5 | 4.20 | -0.30 |
| Arkansas State | 5.5 | 5.79 | +0.29 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.22 | -0.28 |
| Mississippi State | 4.5 | 4.78 | +0.28 |
| Delaware | 6.5 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
| Nebraska | 6.5 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
| Rice | 3.5 | 3.74 | +0.24 |
| Colorado | 4.5 | 4.73 | +0.23 |
| Iowa | 7.5 | 7.73 | +0.23 |
| App State | 6.5 | 6.28 | -0.22 |
| Arkansas | 3.5 | 3.72 | +0.22 |
| Western Kentucky | 7.5 | 7.72 | +0.22 |
| New Mexico State | 4.5 | 4.71 | +0.21 |
| Tulane | 6.5 | 6.71 | +0.21 |
| BYU | 8.5 | 8.30 | -0.20 |
| USC | 8.5 | 8.70 | +0.20 |
| TCU | 6.5 | 6.69 | +0.19 |
| Nevada | 5.5 | 5.68 | +0.18 |
| Boston College | 3.5 | 3.65 | +0.15 |
| South Carolina | 6.5 | 6.64 | +0.14 |
| Army | 7.5 | 7.37 | -0.13 |
| Tennessee | 7.5 | 7.62 | +0.12 |
| Central Michigan | 6.5 | 6.39 | -0.11 |
| San Diego State | 7.5 | 7.60 | +0.10 |
| Stanford | 3.5 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Air Force | 7.5 | 7.59 | +0.09 |
| Arizona | 7.5 | 7.41 | -0.09 |
| Sam Houston | 3.5 | 3.42 | -0.08 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.57 | +0.07 |
| UTSA | 7.5 | 7.57 | +0.07 |
| Marshall | 7.5 | 7.44 | -0.06 |
| Missouri | 6.5 | 6.56 | +0.06 |
| Troy | 6.5 | 6.44 | -0.06 |
| California | 5.5 | 5.55 | +0.05 |
| Louisiana | 7.5 | 7.45 | -0.05 |
| SMU | 8.5 | 8.54 | +0.04 |
| Temple | 5.5 | 5.53 | +0.03 |
| Western Michigan | 7.5 | 7.51 | +0.01 |
| UNLV | 7.5 | 7.50 | 0.00 |
| North Dakota State FBS newcomer 2026, moved up from the FCS. No FBS priors, not yet rated. | 9.5 | FBS newcomer, not yet rated | · |
| Sacramento State FBS newcomer 2026, moved up from the FCS. No FBS priors, not yet rated. | 4.5 | FBS newcomer, not yet rated | · |
Snapshot · Sep 22, 2026Top of the board at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. The spread on each team is the gap between the cheapest and the most expensive book, and it gets wild further down. Auburn is +10000 at BetMGM against +30000 at FanDuel and +35000 at DraftKings. Purdue is +125000 at FanDuel against +200000 at BetMGM and +400000 at DraftKings. That is content, not a bet. But when books disagree that hard, the fair price sits somewhere in between, and our free devig calculator finds it from any two prices you paste in.
Snapshot · Aug 13, 2026BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel via the VegasInsider conference pages. Price shown is the range across those three books, and one price where they agree. These pages are hand captured and have not been recaptured since, so the date is older than the win total boards above on purpose.
BetMGM hangs LSU at +650 while DraftKings and FanDuel both post +900, and our rating walks LSU to 7.19 wins against an 8.5 total. That gap is too thin to carry a lean, but it points the same way the +900 books do.
BetMGM +1000 against DraftKings +1700 on Michigan is a real split. Shop it before you pick a side.
DraftKings +550 on East Carolina against +1000 at FanDuel nearly doubles the payout on the same team.
These are market boards, not model output. Our rating prices win totals, not brackets, so a note appears only where the books split against each other or our number genuinely says something. The devig calculator strips any pair of prices to fair.
Snapshot · Aug 28, 2026BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel via the VegasInsider Heisman board; where only one of the three shows a price, the row says which. Every school re-verified against 2026 rosters Aug 25. Chambliss and Russell schools via sportsbettingdime.com, Aug 1.
| Player | Team | Price across the books |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | +700 to +750 |
| Arch Manning | Texas | +800 to +850 |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | +950 to +1200 |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | +1100 (FanDuel only) |
| Julian Sayin | Ohio State | +1200 to +1300 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | +1300 to +1500 |
| Josh Hoover | Indiana | +1500 |
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | +1500 (FanDuel only) |
| Gunner Stockton | Georgia | +2000 to +2200 |
| Sam Leavitt | LSU | +2000 to +2500 |
| John Mateer | Oklahoma | +2500 |
| Jayden Maiava | USC | +2500 |
| Keelon Russell | Alabama | +2500 to +2600 |
| Marcel Reed | Texas A&M | +3000 |
| Bryce Underwood | Michigan | +3800 (DraftKings only) |
Two quarterbacks front the market and the board thins fast behind them. At each name's shortest price the top five together take up about half of the Heisman market at the books' numbers, which leaves 10 more priced players splitting what is left at long odds. We do not pick August Heismans. We price them: paste any two prices into the devig calculator and see what a name really costs once the vig comes out.
The number is the EL Preseason Rating v1, our own composite. Five components, each pulled from a producing table in our database: last season's performance, four years of blue chip recruiting, returning production, transfer class star quality, and portal flow, with a charge for a first year head coach. The rating then walks each team's actual 2026 schedule game by game, converts every matchup into a win probability, and sums them into expected wins. The gap between that number and the posted total is what puts a team on the board.
The rating is validated before it prices anything. Fit on the 2021 through 2023 seasons and tested on two held out seasons, it missed actual win totals by 1.88 wins on average against 1.97 for a rating built on last season's performance alone.
One caveat we will say out loud. Several of these leans share a thesis. Oklahoma State, UCLA, and Virginia Tech are all bets that a bad season does not bounce back on schedule, and Iowa State and North Texas are both overs carried by last season against a roster that returns almost nothing. Correlated leans are partly one bet, and we sized them that way when they locked. These positions were locked before week 1 and are not new calls; every one of them grades in public at season end, at the locked number.
Championship and conference futures get a different treatment. Nobody outmodels those markets in August and we will not pretend to. What we do instead is strip the vig, compare the books against each other, and point at the prices that do not belong. Line shopping wins real money on futures because the spreads between books are enormous.
Every position above has the case we wrote when it locked before week 1: our expected wins number against the market total, the rating components driving it, how the positions correlate, and the price we locked at. These are graded positions, not new calls. $24/mo. Founder rate, kept as long as you stay subscribed.
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NFL reader? The NFL futures board is live: all 32 win
totals and the Super Bowl board, BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel side by side.
Provenance, board by board, because they refresh on different cadences. The win total
leans, the lower confidence shelf and the full slate table all read the same market file at
request time, hand captured from VegasInsider (BetMGM and DraftKings): the slate was
last captured Sep 22, 2026 and the curated board above was written against the
Aug 25, 2026 numbers. Championship prices come from a live capture of
DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM on Sep 22, 2026, 114 teams priced.
Conference winner prices were hand captured from the VegasInsider per-conference pages
(the BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel columns) on Aug 13, 2026 and have not
been recaptured since. Heisman prices were hand captured from the VegasInsider Heisman page
on Aug 28, 2026 (the same three columns), every school
re-verified against 2026 rosters on Aug 25, and Chambliss and Russell school attributions
via sportsbettingdime.com (Aug 1). Our numbers: the EL Preseason
Rating v1, built from the Edge Labs database (prior season ratings, four year recruiting,
returning production, transfer and portal records, coaching records) and walked over the
full 2026 schedule. Leans, not guarantees. Research and context · 21+.
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