EDGE LABS Market intelligence Our 2026 college football win total predictions, conference winners, and championship futures, priced against five seasons of CFB data. We walk every team's actual 2026 schedule, put a number on it, and post a lean wherever our number and the posted total disagree by two full wins or more. Every lean carries its market source, its gap, and the data behind it. Season starts Aug 29.
Snapshot · Aug 25, 2026Market numbers: BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars via VegasInsider. Our numbers: the EL Preseason Rating v1, same date.
The rule, so you can check it: a team makes this board when our expected wins and the posted total disagree by 2.00 wins or more. 7 teams clear it today. Anything from 1.50 to 1.99 goes to the lower confidence shelf below, and anything under 1.50 carries no lean at all. Every gap in this table is the one in the full slate table further down.
| Team | Market | Our number | Gap | Our lean | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | Win total 6.5over +105 to +110 | 3.01 | -3.49 | UNDER 6.5 | The widest gap on the board. Returning production grades 2.46 rating points below the FBS average, the prior season costs another 8.90, and the schedule walk comes back at 3.01 wins against 6.5. |
| UCLA | Win total 6.5over +100 to +110, all books now on 6.5 | 3.61 | -2.89 | UNDER 6.5 | The model charges 2.1 rating points for the first year staff and last season sits 5.29 below the field. Caesars moved up from 5.5 to 6.5 since our last capture, so every book now prices a bounce the components do not show. Our number says 3.61. |
| Florida State | Win total 5.5over -165 to -175 | 7.88 | +2.38 | OVER 5.5 | New to the board on the Aug 25 numbers. Our walk returns 7.88 wins against a 5.5 line, the widest over gap anywhere on the slate. The over already costs -165 to -175, so the books lean this way too and we are paying for the number rather than finding it cheap. |
| Boise State | Win total 8.5over +150 at DraftKings, BetMGM hangs 7.5 | 6.18 | -2.32 | UNDER 8.5 | An 8.5 hung on a talent base that grades below the FBS average. The name is doing the pricing and our walk returns 6.18 wins. BetMGM already hangs 7.5 and Caesars moved its over from +100 to -128 since our last capture, both drifting toward our side. |
| Iowa State | Win total 4.5over -136 to -145 | 6.61 | +2.11 | OVER 4.5 | The books were split between 4.5 and 5.5 and settled on 4.5, the lower of the two. Our walk says 6.61 wins, so the number the market picked is the one our gap is widest against. That move carried this off the lower confidence shelf and onto the board. |
| Virginia Tech | Win total 6.5over -170 to -175 | 4.47 | -2.03 | UNDER 6.5 | The books lean the other way here, over juiced to -170 or worse, which makes our under the plus money side. The number says 4.47 wins on a 6.5 line and most of the gap is a prior season the market has already forgiven. |
| North Texas | Win total 5.5over -130 at both books | 7.51 | +2.01 | OVER 5.5 | The schedule walk lands at 7.51 wins on a 5.5 line, two full wins of cushion. Prior season performance is worth 7.38 rating points against the field and the 2026 slate lets it carry. |
The board is held to its own threshold on every refresh. On the Aug 25, 2026 numbers, Texas, Indiana, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee all landed between 1.5 and 1.9 wins and moved down to the lower confidence shelf. These carry no lean at all:
10 gaps clear a win and a half but stop short of two, between 1.5 and 1.9 wins against a model whose held out error is 1.88. That is real signal sitting inside its own error bar. We publish the direction because it is earned and we downgrade the conviction because the cushion is thin. No cards on these, smaller sizing if you play them at all, and they move up only if the number does.
Two more land in the lower band on the line our board file carries, and both are unresolved book splits. DraftKings hangs 7.5 on Fresno State while BetMGM and Caesars sit 6.5, and DraftKings hangs 3.5 on San José State while the other two sit 4.5. On the majority number neither gap reaches a full win, so neither goes on a shelf until the books agree.
Market lines: VegasInsider win totals board (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars), captured Sep 10, 2026. Our numbers: the EL Preseason Rating v1, same date.
Every posted total we could source, all 138 lined FBS teams, against our expected wins number. 136 carry a rating; North Dakota State and Sacramento State moved up from the FCS this season and sit at the bottom with their market lines and no rating until they build FBS data. Sorted by the size of the disagreement. Gaps of a full win or more get the flag (38 teams clear it); anything smaller is noise against the model's 1.88 win average error. The 7 leans on the board are the ones we put our name on, the lower confidence shelf holds the next 10, and the rest of the flags are where we look next.
| Team | Market line | Our number | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State UNDER | 9.5 | 6.18 | -3.32 |
| Rutgers OVER | 2.5 | 5.53 | +3.03 |
| Virginia Tech UNDER | 7.5 | 4.47 | -3.03 |
| Massachusetts UNDER | 5.5 | 2.56 | -2.94 |
| UCLA UNDER | 6.5 | 3.61 | -2.89 |
| Hawai'i OVER | 5.5 | 8.35 | +2.85 |
| Florida State OVER | 5.5 | 7.88 | +2.38 |
| LSU UNDER | 9.5 | 7.19 | -2.31 |
| Iowa State OVER | 4.5 | 6.61 | +2.11 |
| Georgia Tech OVER | 4.5 | 6.55 | +2.05 |
| Indiana UNDER | 10.5 | 8.60 | -1.90 |
| Southern Miss OVER | 3.5 | 5.28 | +1.78 |
| Wisconsin UNDER | 6.5 | 4.74 | -1.76 |
| Fresno State UNDER | 7.5 | 5.78 | -1.72 |
| Texas UNDER | 9.5 | 7.78 | -1.72 |
| Navy UNDER | 8.5 | 6.83 | -1.67 |
| Northern Illinois OVER | 3.5 | 5.17 | +1.67 |
| Louisiana Tech OVER | 5.5 | 7.11 | +1.61 |
| UConn OVER | 5.5 | 7.11 | +1.61 |
| Middle Tennessee OVER | 3.5 | 5.09 | +1.59 |
| Akron OVER | 4.5 | 6.04 | +1.54 |
| Virginia UNDER | 8.5 | 7.00 | -1.50 |
| Oklahoma State UNDER | 4.5 | 3.01 | -1.49 |
| Toledo OVER | 7.5 | 8.98 | +1.48 |
| Purdue OVER | 2.5 | 3.97 | +1.47 |
| Missouri State OVER | 3.5 | 4.95 | +1.45 |
| Memphis UNDER | 8.5 | 7.18 | -1.32 |
| Charlotte OVER | 1.5 | 2.78 | +1.28 |
| Texas A&M OVER | 8.5 | 9.78 | +1.28 |
| Pittsburgh UNDER | 8.5 | 7.26 | -1.24 |
| Vanderbilt OVER | 5.5 | 6.73 | +1.23 |
| Wyoming OVER | 4.5 | 5.71 | +1.21 |
| Texas Tech UNDER | 11.5 | 10.34 | -1.16 |
| Clemson OVER | 7.5 | 8.64 | +1.14 |
| Arizona State UNDER | 6.5 | 5.46 | -1.04 |
| Kent State OVER | 3.5 | 4.53 | +1.03 |
| North Carolina UNDER | 5.5 | 4.49 | -1.01 |
| North Texas OVER | 6.5 | 7.51 | +1.01 |
| Louisville | 8.5 | 7.51 | -0.99 |
| Liberty | 7.5 | 6.57 | -0.93 |
| Penn State | 9.5 | 8.57 | -0.93 |
| Utah | 8.5 | 9.43 | +0.93 |
| Oklahoma | 8.5 | 7.59 | -0.91 |
| Georgia Southern | 5.5 | 4.60 | -0.90 |
| Florida | 7.5 | 6.61 | -0.89 |
| Florida International | 5.5 | 6.39 | +0.89 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 6.61 | -0.89 |
| Alabama | 8.5 | 7.62 | -0.88 |
| Kentucky | 4.5 | 3.62 | -0.88 |
| Washington State | 5.5 | 6.38 | +0.88 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 10.36 | +0.86 |
| Tulsa | 6.5 | 5.64 | -0.86 |
| UL Monroe | 3.5 | 4.36 | +0.86 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.5 | 4.65 | -0.85 |
| NC State | 6.5 | 7.35 | +0.85 |
| UAB | 3.5 | 4.35 | +0.85 |
| Colorado State | 4.5 | 3.66 | -0.84 |
| UTEP | 3.5 | 4.28 | +0.78 |
| Utah State | 5.5 | 4.75 | -0.75 |
| Kansas State | 8.5 | 7.76 | -0.74 |
| West Virginia | 5.5 | 4.77 | -0.73 |
| Minnesota | 6.5 | 5.81 | -0.69 |
| Wake Forest | 6.5 | 5.81 | -0.69 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.5 | 6.18 | +0.68 |
| Oregon State | 4.5 | 3.82 | -0.68 |
| Notre Dame | 11.5 | 10.83 | -0.67 |
| Bowling Green | 4.5 | 5.15 | +0.65 |
| Houston | 8.5 | 7.86 | -0.64 |
| Syracuse | 4.5 | 3.90 | -0.60 |
| Georgia | 10.5 | 9.93 | -0.57 |
| Washington | 8.5 | 7.95 | -0.55 |
| Buffalo | 5.5 | 6.04 | +0.54 |
| Duke | 6.5 | 5.96 | -0.54 |
| Old Dominion | 7.5 | 6.96 | -0.54 |
| South Florida | 8.5 | 7.97 | -0.53 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.5 | 6.00 | -0.50 |
| San José State | 5.5 | 5.00 | -0.50 |
| Kansas | 5.5 | 5.99 | +0.49 |
| UCF | 6.5 | 6.04 | -0.46 |
| South Alabama | 5.5 | 5.95 | +0.45 |
| Maryland | 5.5 | 5.93 | +0.43 |
| Ohio | 7.5 | 7.07 | -0.43 |
| Baylor | 5.5 | 5.92 | +0.42 |
| James Madison | 8.5 | 8.08 | -0.42 |
| Oregon | 10.5 | 10.09 | -0.41 |
| Ole Miss | 8.5 | 8.11 | -0.39 |
| Miami | 10.5 | 10.12 | -0.38 |
| Auburn | 6.5 | 6.87 | +0.37 |
| Texas State | 6.5 | 6.13 | -0.37 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5.5 | 5.14 | -0.36 |
| Georgia State | 4.5 | 4.14 | -0.36 |
| New Mexico | 7.5 | 7.14 | -0.36 |
| Illinois | 6.5 | 6.84 | +0.34 |
| Ball State | 3.5 | 3.83 | +0.33 |
| Cincinnati | 5.5 | 5.19 | -0.31 |
| Northwestern | 5.5 | 5.81 | +0.31 |
| Michigan | 7.5 | 7.80 | +0.30 |
| Michigan State | 4.5 | 4.20 | -0.30 |
| Arkansas State | 5.5 | 5.79 | +0.29 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.22 | -0.28 |
| Mississippi State | 4.5 | 4.78 | +0.28 |
| Delaware | 6.5 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
| Nebraska | 6.5 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
| Rice | 3.5 | 3.74 | +0.24 |
| Colorado | 4.5 | 4.73 | +0.23 |
| Iowa | 7.5 | 7.73 | +0.23 |
| App State | 6.5 | 6.28 | -0.22 |
| Arkansas | 3.5 | 3.72 | +0.22 |
| Western Kentucky | 7.5 | 7.72 | +0.22 |
| New Mexico State | 4.5 | 4.71 | +0.21 |
| Tulane | 6.5 | 6.71 | +0.21 |
| BYU | 8.5 | 8.30 | -0.20 |
| USC | 8.5 | 8.70 | +0.20 |
| TCU | 6.5 | 6.69 | +0.19 |
| Nevada | 5.5 | 5.68 | +0.18 |
| Boston College | 3.5 | 3.65 | +0.15 |
| South Carolina | 6.5 | 6.64 | +0.14 |
| Army | 7.5 | 7.37 | -0.13 |
| Tennessee | 7.5 | 7.62 | +0.12 |
| Central Michigan | 6.5 | 6.39 | -0.11 |
| San Diego State | 7.5 | 7.60 | +0.10 |
| Stanford | 3.5 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Air Force | 7.5 | 7.59 | +0.09 |
| Arizona | 7.5 | 7.41 | -0.09 |
| Sam Houston | 3.5 | 3.42 | -0.08 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.57 | +0.07 |
| UTSA | 7.5 | 7.57 | +0.07 |
| Marshall | 7.5 | 7.44 | -0.06 |
| Missouri | 6.5 | 6.56 | +0.06 |
| Troy | 6.5 | 6.44 | -0.06 |
| California | 5.5 | 5.55 | +0.05 |
| Louisiana | 7.5 | 7.45 | -0.05 |
| SMU | 8.5 | 8.54 | +0.04 |
| Temple | 5.5 | 5.53 | +0.03 |
| Western Michigan | 7.5 | 7.51 | +0.01 |
| UNLV | 7.5 | 7.50 | 0.00 |
| North Dakota State FBS newcomer 2026, moved up from the FCS. No FBS priors, not yet rated. | 9.5 | FBS newcomer, not yet rated | · |
| Sacramento State FBS newcomer 2026, moved up from the FCS. No FBS priors, not yet rated. | 4.5 | FBS newcomer, not yet rated | · |
Snapshot · Aug 24, 2026Top of the five book board. The spread on each team is the gap between the cheapest and the most expensive book, and it gets wild further down. Clemson is +5000 at BetMGM and +17500 at FanDuel. Oklahoma State is +6000 at BetMGM against +40000 or longer everywhere else, out to +100000 at BetRivers, almost certainly a number nobody has touched in weeks. That is content, not a bet. But when books disagree that hard, the fair price sits somewhere in between, and our free devig calculator finds it from any two prices you paste in.
Snapshot · Aug 13, 2026Bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetRivers via the VegasInsider conference pages. Price shown is the range across the six books. These pages are hand captured and have not been recaptured since, so the date is older than the win total boards above on purpose.
Caesars hangs LSU at +600 while DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetRivers all post +900, and our rating walks LSU to 7.19 wins against an 8.5 total. That gap is too thin to carry a lean, but it points the same way the +900 books do.
BetMGM +1000 against DraftKings +1700 on Michigan is the widest split on any race we captured. Shop it before you pick a side.
Caesars +1300 on Virginia against +2000 at DraftKings and FanDuel is a real split. No rating lean behind it, just a price worth shopping.
DraftKings +550 on East Carolina against +1000 at FanDuel nearly doubles the payout on the same team.
These are market boards, not model output. Our rating prices win totals, not brackets, so a note appears only where the books split against each other or our number genuinely says something. The devig calculator strips any pair of prices to fair.
Snapshot · Aug 13, 2026Six book board via VegasInsider. Carr and Manning repriced on the Aug 18 recapture; every school re-verified against 2026 rosters Aug 25. Chambliss and Russell schools via sportsbettingdime.com, Aug 1.
| Player | Team | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | +675 to +750 |
| Arch Manning | Texas | +700 to +850 |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | +900 to +1200 |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | +1000 to +1150 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | +900 to +1300 |
| Julian Sayin | Ohio State | +1100 to +1300 |
| Josh Hoover | Indiana | +1200 to +1600 |
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | +1400 to +1500 |
| Gunner Stockton | Georgia | +1600 to +2200 |
| Sam Leavitt | LSU | +2000 to +2500 |
| John Mateer | Oklahoma | +2000 to +2500 |
| Jayden Maiava | USC | +2300 to +2500 |
| Marcel Reed | Texas A&M | +2500 to +3000 |
| Keelon Russell | Alabama | +2500 to +3000 |
| Bryce Underwood | Michigan | +3500 to +4000 |
Two quarterbacks front the market and the board thins fast behind them. At each name's shortest price the top five combine to about 55 percent raw implied probability, which leaves ten more priced players splitting what is left at long odds. One split worth knowing: BetMGM has Chambliss at +900 while DraftKings and FanDuel post +1300. We do not pick August Heismans. We price them: paste any two prices into the devig calculator and see what a name really costs once the vig comes out.
The number is the EL Preseason Rating v1, our own composite. Five components, each pulled from a producing table in our database: last season's performance, four years of blue chip recruiting, returning production, transfer class star quality, and portal flow, with a charge for a first year head coach. The rating then walks each team's actual 2026 schedule game by game, converts every matchup into a win probability, and sums them into expected wins. The gap between that number and the posted total is what puts a team on the board.
The rating is validated before it prices anything. Fit on the 2021 through 2023 seasons and tested on two held out seasons, it missed actual win totals by 1.88 wins on average against 1.97 for a rating built on last season's performance alone.
One caveat we will say out loud. Several of these leans share a thesis. Oklahoma State, UCLA, and Virginia Tech are all bets that a bad season does not bounce back on schedule, and Iowa State and North Texas are both overs carried by last season against a roster that returns almost nothing. Correlated leans are partly one bet, and we size them that way. These are leans, not graded picks with a track record behind them. Futures grade slowly, and every one of these will grade in public when the season answers.
Championship and conference futures get a different treatment. Nobody outmodels those markets in August and we will not pretend to. What we do instead is strip the vig, compare the books against each other, and point at the prices that do not belong. Line shopping wins real money on futures because the spreads between books are enormous.
Every lean above has the full case behind it: our expected wins number against the market total, the rating components driving it, how the leans correlate, and the exact price that keeps each one playable or kills it. Members read all of it today. $24/mo, founder rate.
The expected wins numbers, the signals, and the price that keeps each lean playable, plus the Vault and every calculator. Conviction picks arrive at kickoff and members get them first. $24/mo founder rate.
NFL reader? The NFL futures board is live: all 32 win
totals and the Super Bowl board, every book side by side.
Provenance, board by board, because they refresh on different cadences. The win total
leans, the lower confidence shelf and the full slate table all read the same market file at
request time, hand captured from VegasInsider (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars): the slate was
last captured Sep 10, 2026 and the curated board above was written against the
Aug 25, 2026 numbers. Championship prices come from a live five book capture
(DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetOnline) on Aug 24, 2026, 138 teams priced.
Conference winner prices were hand captured from the VegasInsider per-conference pages
(Bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetRivers) on Aug 13, 2026 and have not
been recaptured since. Heisman prices were hand captured from the VegasInsider Heisman page
on Aug 13, 2026, with Carr and Manning repriced on the Aug 18 recapture, every school
re-verified against 2026 rosters on Aug 25, and Chambliss and Russell school attributions
via sportsbettingdime.com (Aug 1). Our numbers: the EL Preseason
Rating v1, built from the Edge Labs database (prior season ratings, four year recruiting,
returning production, transfer and portal records, coaching records) and walked over the
full 2026 schedule. Leans, not guarantees. Research and context · 21+.
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