The Lab CFB ratings movers, week 6: Buffalo's win at Toledo is the biggest swing, and Georgia retakes number 1
CFB ratings movers, week 6: Buffalo's win at Toledo is the biggest swing, and Georgia retakes number 1
After week 6, Buffalo's 23 to 8 win at Toledo was the biggest swing in our college football rating, Georgia's win at Alabama flipped our top two, and Notre Dame lost rating points in a 51 point win. Each move below is traced to the game and the margin our number expected.
Buffalo won 23 to 8 at Toledo in week 6, and our rating expected Toledo to win by about 18. That 33 point miss made it the biggest swing of the week: Buffalo gained 4.709 rating points and moved from 128th to 109th in our rating, while Toledo lost the same 4.709 and fell from 53rd to 80th, the largest drop of any team. Purdue’s 41 to 13 win over Minnesota was nearly as large a miss. Purdue gained 4.705 and climbed from 78th to 53rd, the largest climb. At the top, Georgia won 20 to 17 at Alabama when our rating expected Alabama by about 4, and Georgia is number 1 in our rating again.
Every number here is from our in-season CFB rating, the weekly update layer on top of each team’s preseason number. The week 6 rows were written on October 12, 2026, after Saturday’s finals. “Rank” always means rank in our rating across the 138 FBS teams we rate, not any poll. Figures are rounded from stored values.
How a move is computed
Each team’s rating moves by one number: a weight times its error. The error is the game’s margin, capped at 28, minus the margin our ratings expected. The expected margin is the team’s rating minus its opponent’s, plus 2.5 points for home field and nothing at a neutral site. The weight shrinks as the season goes on.
Worked example, Buffalo on the road at Toledo:
- Expected margin: Buffalo’s entering rating of minus 13.195 minus Toledo’s 2.266 is minus 15.461. Toledo was at home, so subtract 2.5 more, for minus 17.961. Our rating had Toledo winning by about 18.
- Actual margin: Buffalo 23, Toledo 8, so plus 15. That is under the cap, so it counts in full.
- Error: 15 minus negative 17.961 is 32.961.
- Weight: a team’s sixth game, with five already played, carries a weight of 2/14, or 0.1429.
- Move: 32.961 times 2/14 is 4.709 rating points. Toledo, on the other side of the same game, loses 4.709.
That weight comes from setting the preseason prior to be worth about eight games of evidence. We walk through that choice in the preseason prior is worth eight games. Two consequences matter for this week. Each team’s weight depends on how many games it has already played: a team in its fifth game, like Texas, Oklahoma or Ole Miss, carries 2/13, a team in its sixth, like most of the field, carries 2/14, and Eastern Michigan, in its seventh, carries 2/15. And nothing past 28 points counts, even when the opponent was supposed to be much worse.
Why a win can lower a rating
Notre Dame is the clean case. It beat Stanford 58 to 7, a margin of 51, but the update counts only 28. Our rating expected Notre Dame to win by about 33: its entering 21.248 minus Stanford’s minus 9.165 is 30.413, plus 2.5 for home field is 32.913. The error is 28 minus 32.913, which is minus 4.913, and 2/14 of that is minus 0.702. Notre Dame went from 5th to 4th anyway, from a rating of 21.248 to 20.546.
Ohio State beat Maryland 45 to 16 and lost 0.352, because the margin of 29 counted as 28 against an expected 30.47. Tennessee won at Arkansas by 7 and lost 1.165, because our rating expected Tennessee by about 15. The reverse also happens. Georgia Southern lost 24 to 27 to James Madison and gained 1.396, because our rating expected it to lose by about 13.
None of that is a verdict on the games. With 33 points expected and nothing past 28 counted, no score against Stanford could have raised Notre Dame’s number.
Biggest risers
Margin and expected margin are from the team’s side. “Site” is home or road for the risers and fallers, taken from the game record.
| Team | Our rank, wk 5 to wk 6 | Rating change | Opponent | Site | Margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 128 to 109 | +4.709 | Toledo | Road | +15 | -17.96 |
| Purdue | 78 to 53 | +4.705 | Minnesota | Home | +28 | -4.94 |
| South Carolina | 42 to 27 | +3.973 | Florida | Road | +19 | -8.81 |
| Louisville | 40 to 25 | +3.822 | Florida State | Home | +24 | -2.75 |
| Ole Miss | 14 to 10 | +3.506 | Vanderbilt | Road | +35 (counts as 28) | +5.21 |
| Wake Forest | 38 to 31 | +3.098 | NC State | Road | +24 | +2.32 |
| Western Kentucky | 117 to 99 | +3.093 | Missouri State | Home | +21 | -0.65 |
| Houston | 36 to 29 | +3.092 | Kansas State | Road | +19 | -2.65 |
South Carolina’s 19 point win at Florida came when our rating expected Florida by about 9, a 28 point gap. Louisville’s 24 point win over Florida State came when it expected Florida State by about 3. Ole Miss won by more than 28 at Vanderbilt, but the part past 28 did not count.
Biggest fallers
Every faller is the other side of a riser’s game.
| Team | Our rank, wk 5 to wk 6 | Rating change | Opponent | Site | Margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 53 to 80 | -4.709 | Buffalo | Home | -15 | +17.96 |
| Minnesota | 44 to 63 | -4.705 | Purdue | Road | -28 | +4.94 |
| Florida | 16 to 34 | -3.973 | South Carolina | Home | -19 | +8.81 |
| Florida State | 18 to 35 | -3.822 | Louisville | Road | -24 | +2.75 |
| Missouri State | 96 to 114 | -3.331 | Western Kentucky | Road | -21 | +0.65 |
| Kansas State | 35 to 49 | -3.330 | Houston | Home | -19 | +2.65 |
| Vanderbilt | 45 to 55 | -3.255 | Ole Miss | Home | -35 (counts as -28) | -5.21 |
| NC State | 59 to 77 | -3.098 | Wake Forest | Home | -24 | -2.32 |
Each game pairs the two teams, but each side moves by its own weight, so the two moves match only when both teams have played the same number of games. Three of these eight pairs do not match. Ole Miss gained 3.506 at 2/13 while Vanderbilt lost 3.255 at 2/14. Houston gained 3.092 at 2/14 while Kansas State lost 3.330 at 2/13. Western Kentucky gained 3.093 at 2/14 while Missouri State lost 3.331 at 2/13. In each case the team on the 2/13 weight was playing its fifth game.
The top 10 after week 6
Georgia is number 1 in our rating, at 25.844. Its 20 to 17 win at Alabama came with Alabama expected by 3.81: Georgia’s entering 24.871 minus Alabama’s 26.179 is minus 1.308, and Alabama’s home field takes it to minus 3.808. A 3 point win against that expectation was worth 0.973, so Georgia moved from 24.871 to 25.844 and from 2nd to 1st. Alabama lost the same 0.973, fell to 25.207, and is second. The top two swapped.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Change from week 5 | Rank last week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 25.844 | +0.973 | 2 |
| 2 | Alabama | 25.207 | -0.973 | 1 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 23.985 | -0.352 | 3 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 20.546 | -0.702 | 5 |
| 5 | Miami | 20.369 | idle | 6 |
| 6 | Texas | 19.702 | -2.261 | 4 |
| 7 | LSU | 18.050 | -1.563 | 7 |
| 8 | Missouri | 16.920 | +2.673 | 13 |
| 9 | Indiana | 16.812 | +0.157 | 8 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 16.040 | +3.506 | 14 |
Texas dropped from 4th to 6th after Oklahoma beat it 27 to 24 at a neutral site. Our rating expected Texas by 11.69, so Texas lost 2.261 and Oklahoma, at the same 2/13 weight, gained 2.261 and moved from 22nd to 14th. Miami was idle in week 6, so its rating did not move, and it still rose from 6th to 5th because Texas fell below it. In all, 22 teams were idle. Missouri’s 27 to 6 win over Texas A&M, against an expected margin of about 2, moved it from 13th to 8th.
Next week
25 of the 138 teams moved 10 or more spots in our rating this week, and 2 moved 20 or more, Toledo at 27 spots and Purdue at 25. Week 7 includes Ohio State at Indiana, our 3rd and 9th, Alabama at Tennessee, our 2nd and 12th, Missouri at Ole Miss, our 8th and 10th, and Nebraska at Oregon, our 15th and 13th. The full board, in-season through week 6, is on our college football power ratings page.