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Line watch

The price is the one part of a bet you control. This desk shows every book we capture on every upcoming NFL game, the best number on each side right now, how far the market has moved since we first saw it, and where each of our locked picks stands against the market. Market facts, each with its book and capture time. No read, no lean, no probability.

Last capture Sep 29, 4:23 PM ET · 5 books · 16 upcoming games · lines refresh about every one to three hours

Our picks against the market

Each locked pick beside the market median now, the best number you can still get, and the key numbers between the two. A pick that closes better than the market is closing line value: a receipt of the price, not a result.

This week's closing line receipts

PickLockedCloseCLVResult
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 +5.5 +4.5 +1 Win
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5key 3 -3.5 -3 -0.5 Loss
Indianapolis Colts +2 +2 +1.5 +0.5 Win
Buffalo Bills -7 -7 -7 0 Win
Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5key 3 -2.5 -3 +0.5 Win
Cleveland Browns +3key 3 +3 +2.5 +0.5 Win
Seattle Seahawks -7.5 -7.5 -8.5 +1 Loss
Kansas City Chiefs -10key 10 -10 -9.5 -0.5 Win
Tennessee Titans +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 0 Loss
Minnesota Vikings -1 -1 -1 0 Win
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 +3.5 +3.5 0 Win
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 0 Loss
Denver Broncos +2.5 +2.5 +1.5 +1 Win
Chicago Bears +3.5 +3.5 +3.5 0 Win

Close = the median of the books' last pregame quotes in our capture. CLV = locked number minus close, in points from our side (positive means we held the better number). Picks grade against the locked number, never the close.

Biggest moves, last 24 hours

Median of the books quoting now against the median 24 hours ago. Ranked by spread move; a total move counts half.

  1. LA at PHI spread LA -2 to LA -3 total 46 to 43.5
  2. NE at BUF spread BUF -7 to BUF -6.5
  3. MIA at MIN spread MIN -10.5 to MIN -11 total 39 to 38.5
  4. DEN at SF spread SF -2.5 to SF -3 total 46.5 to 47
  5. LAC at SEA spread SEA -6.5 to SEA -7 total 43.5 to 43
  6. NYJ at CHI total 43.5 to 43

Every book, every game

Spreads from each team's side, totals as the number. The highlighted cell is the best number on that side (line first, then price). A book whose last quote is more than six hours older than the game's newest capture is shown faded and left out of the best number and the median.

PIT at CLE

Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET

BookPITCLEOverUnder
DK -2.5 -120 +2.5 +100 38.5 -105 38.5 -115
FD -2.5 -112 +2.5 -108 38.5 -102 38.5 -120
MGM -3 -105 +3 -125 38 -110 38 -108
PIN -2.5 -113 +2.5 +100 38 -115 38 +100
BOV -2.5 -115 +2.5 -105 38.5 -110 38.5 -110
First -2.5 +2.5 38 38
  • Spread PIT -2.5 to PIT -2.5 since Sep 22, no move · 24h no move
  • Total 38 to 38.5, up 0.5 · 24h no move
  • Log91 captures · newest Sep 29, 4:23 PM ET

Key number 3. When the spread sat within a point of 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 8.9% of 2,475 NFL games (2002-2025).

IND at WASneutral

Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET

BookINDWASOverUnder
DK -3.5 -112 +3.5 -108 47.5 -102 47.5 -118
FD -3.5 -110 +3.5 -110 47.5 -102 47.5 -120
MGM -3.5 -110 +3.5 -108 47 -110 47 -108
PIN -3.5 -108 +3.5 -104 47 -110 47 -104
BOV -3.5 -110 +3.5 -110 47 -115 47 -105
First -3 +3 47 47
  • Spread IND -3 to IND -3.5 since Sep 22, 0.5 toward IND · 24h no move
  • Total 47 to 47, no move · 24h no move
  • Log91 captures · newest Sep 29, 4:23 PM ET

Key number 3. When the spread sat within a point of 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 8.9% of 2,475 NFL games (2002-2025).

ARI at NYG

Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET

BookARINYGOverUnder
DK -1.5 -105 +1.5 -115 44.5 -108 44.5 -112
FD +1.5 -124 -1.5 +102 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
MGM -1 -108 +1 -110 44.5 -108 44.5 -112
PIN -1 -110 +1 -102 44.5 -102 44.5 -112
BOV -1.5 -110 +1.5 -110 44 -115 44 -105
First +1.5 -1.5 43.5 43.5
  • Spread NYG -1.5 to ARI -1 since Sep 22, 2.5 toward ARI · 24h no move
  • Total 43.5 to 44.5, up 1 · 24h no move
  • Log91 captures · newest Sep 29, 4:23 PM ET
Members

13 more NFL games on the member desk

Members get every game with every book we capture (5 today), the best number on each side, the move since open, and each of our locked picks against the market the moment it locks.

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Why half a point matters: NFL key numbers

When the spread sits near a key number, the half point on either side of it decides the ticket whenever the favorite wins by exactly that number. These are historical shares with their samples, not a forecast.

NumberGames with the spread within a pointFavorite won by exactly itShareAll games decided by it
1 808 16 2.0% 4.1%
2 2,260 67 3.0% 4.2%
3key 2,475 221 8.9% 14.8%
4 2,249 70 3.1% 5.0%
5 1,198 23 1.9% 3.6%
6 1,374 51 3.7% 6.2%
7key 1,329 78 5.9% 9.1%
8 945 17 1.8% 3.8%
10key 637 32 5.0% 5.5%
14key 232 11 4.7% 4.9%

Source: nflverse schedules (edgelabs.nfl_games), seasons 2002-2025, n = 6,223 games with a final score (6,223 with a spread). A number is marked key when the share is at least 4.0% on at least 200 games. Rebuilt by scripts/tools/build_key_numbers.py.

How to read this desk

  • Lines come from our own capture of 5 US books through The Odds API, stored append-only. "First" is the first capture in our log, not necessarily the book's true opening number.
  • Only pregame quotes count. Once a game kicks off, its last pregame capture is the close and it never changes.
  • Best number: the highest line for a side (the lowest total for an over, the highest for an under), then the best price. It is the number to shop for, not a recommendation to bet.
  • Closing line value is shown for every locked pick, good or bad. It measures the price we took, not whether the pick won.
  • Nothing on this page is a win probability, and no line here is a lean. Our picks and their grades live on the NFL board and the record.