EDGE LABS Market intelligence The price is the one part of a bet you control. This desk shows DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM on every upcoming NFL game, the best number on each side right now, how far the market has moved since we first saw it, and where each of our locked picks stands against the market. Market facts, each with its book and capture time. No read, no lean, no probability.
Last capture Nov 14, 7:29 AM ET · DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM · 25 upcoming games · lines refresh about every one to three hours
Each locked pick beside the market median now, the best number you can still get, and the key numbers between the two. A pick that closes better than the market is closing line value: a receipt of the price, not a result.
| Pick | Locked | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals -3key 3 | -3 | -3.5 | +0.5 | Win |
| Detroit Lions -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 | Win |
| Indianapolis Colts +5.5 | +5.5 | +4 | +1.5 | Win |
| New York Giants -3 | -3 | -3 | 0 | Win |
| Los Angeles Rams -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 | Win |
| Denver Broncos -2.5key 3 | -2.5 | -3 | +0.5 | Win |
| New Orleans Saints -3key 3 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | Loss |
| Los Angeles Chargers +6 | +6 | +5.5 | +0.5 | Loss |
| Las Vegas Raiders +10key 10 | +10 | +9 | +1 | Loss |
| Green Bay Packers +3.5key 3 | +3.5 | +3 | +0.5 | Win |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | 0 | Win |
| Minnesota Vikings +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | 0 | Loss |
| New York Giants -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | Loss |
Close = the median of the books' last pregame quotes in our capture. CLV = locked number minus close, in points from our side (positive means we held the better number). Picks grade against the locked number, never the close.
Members see every open pick here, the moment it locks, with whether our number is still available. Join or sign in.
Median of the books quoting now against the median 24 hours ago. Ranked by spread move; a total move counts half.
Spreads from each team's side, totals as the number. The highlighted cell is the best number on that side (line first, then price). A book whose last quote is more than six hours older than the game's newest capture is shown faded and left out of the best number and the median.
Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET
| Book | NE | DET | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | +2.5 -102 | -2.5 -118 | 49.5 -112 | 49.5 -108 |
| FD | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 |
| MGM | +2.5 -102 | -2.5 -118 | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 |
| First | +1.5 | -1.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
Key number 3. When the spread sat within a point of 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 8.9% of 2,475 NFL games (2002-2025).
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET
| Book | BUF | NYJ | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | -8.5 -105 | +8.5 -115 | 50.5 -118 | 50.5 -102 |
| FD | -7.5 -110 | +7.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 |
| MGM | -8 -105 | +8 -112 | 51 -108 | 51 -110 |
| First | -7.5 | +7.5 | 51 | 51 |
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET
| Book | CAR | NO | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | +2.5 -112 | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 |
| FD | +1.5 +100 | -1.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 |
| MGM | +2.5 -110 | -2.5 -108 | 49 -108 | 49 -110 |
| First | -1.5 | +1.5 | 47.5 | 47.5 |
Key number 3. When the spread sat within a point of 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 8.9% of 2,475 NFL games (2002-2025).
Members get every game at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, the best number on each side, the move since open, and each of our locked picks against the market the moment it locks.
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When the spread sits near a key number, the half point on either side of it decides the ticket whenever the favorite wins by exactly that number. These are historical shares with their samples, not a forecast.
| Number | Games with the spread within a point | Favorite won by exactly it | Share | All games decided by it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 808 | 16 | 2.0% | 4.1% |
| 2 | 2,260 | 67 | 3.0% | 4.2% |
| 3key | 2,475 | 221 | 8.9% | 14.8% |
| 4 | 2,249 | 70 | 3.1% | 5.0% |
| 5 | 1,198 | 23 | 1.9% | 3.6% |
| 6 | 1,374 | 51 | 3.7% | 6.2% |
| 7key | 1,329 | 78 | 5.9% | 9.1% |
| 8 | 945 | 17 | 1.8% | 3.8% |
| 10key | 637 | 32 | 5.0% | 5.5% |
| 14key | 232 | 11 | 4.7% | 4.9% |
Source: nflverse schedules (edgelabs.nfl_games), seasons 2002-2025, n = 6,223 games with a final score (6,223 with a spread). A number is marked key when the share is at least 4.0% on at least 200 games. Rebuilt by scripts/tools/build_key_numbers.py.
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