Georgia State -1 high
- Locked
- -1 Pinnacle -113 · Sep 29
- Market now
- -1.5 median of fresh books
- Best now
- -1 -113 · Pinnacle
Our number or better is still on the board: -1 at Pinnacle.
Our locked number is 0.5 points better than the market now.
Line watch
The price is the one part of a bet you control. This desk shows every book we capture on every upcoming CFB game, the best number on each side right now, how far the market has moved since we first saw it, and where each of our locked picks stands against the market. Market facts, each with its book and capture time. No read, no lean, no probability.
Last capture Sep 29, 5:22 PM ET · 5 books · 56 upcoming games · lines refresh about every one to three hours
Our picks against the market
Each locked pick beside the market median now, the best number you can still get, and the key numbers between the two. A pick that closes better than the market is closing line value: a receipt of the price, not a result.
This week's closing line receipts
| Pick | Locked | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army -3key 3 | -3 | -3.5 | +0.5 | Win |
| UAB +7key 7 | +7 | +6.5 | +0.5 | Win |
| Clemson +1 | +1 | -2.5 | +3.5 | Win |
| Bucknell +52.5 | +52.5 | +54.5 | -2 | Loss |
| Baylor -9.5 | -9.5 | -9.5 | 0 | Win |
| Sam Houston +34.5 | +34.5 | +34.5 | 0 | Loss |
| South Alabama +20.5 | +20.5 | +20.5 | 0 | Loss |
| Georgia State -10key 10 | -10 | -9 | -1 | Win |
| Hawai'i -3key 3 | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | Loss |
| Oklahoma +14key 14 | +14 | +13.5 | +0.5 | Loss |
| Gardner-Webb +24.5 | +24.5 | +24.5 | 0 | Win |
| Robert Morris +28.5 | +28.5 | +28.5 | 0 | Win |
| Stonehill +33.5 | +33.5 | +32.5 | +1 | Win |
| Utah -8 | -8 | -7.5 | -0.5 | Win |
| Iowa +5.5 | +5.5 | +5.5 | 0 | Win |
| UConn +3.5key 3 | +3.5 | +3 | +0.5 | Win |
| Western Michigan +7.5 | +7.5 | +7.5 | 0 | Loss |
| TCU -3 | -3 | -3 | 0 | Loss |
| North Carolina Central +35.5 | +35.5 | +37.5 | -2 | Win |
| South Florida -17.5 | -17.5 | -18 | +0.5 | Loss |
| Penn State -9.5key 10 | -9.5 | -10 | +0.5 | Loss |
| Delaware +20 | +20 | +20 | 0 | Loss |
| Incarnate Word +30.5 | +30.5 | +30.5 | 0 | Loss |
| James Madison -5.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | +1 | Win |
| Louisiana -10key 10 | -10 | -9.5 | -0.5 | Win |
| Central Michigan +41.5 | +41.5 | +41.5 | 0 | Loss |
| West Virginia -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | Loss |
| Mercyhurst +40.5 | +40.5 | +40.5 | 0 | Loss |
| Southern Miss +17.5 | +17.5 | +18 | -0.5 | Win |
| Middle Tennessee +7.5 | +7.5 | +7.5 | 0 | Loss |
| Troy +3 | +3 | +3 | 0 | Loss |
| UL Monroe +13.5 | +13.5 | +11.5 | +2 | Loss |
| Missouri State +35 | +35 | +30.5 | +4.5 | Win |
| Rice +13.5 | +13.5 | +12.5 | +1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech -3.5key 3 | -3.5 | -3 | -0.5 | Loss |
| Minnesota +10key 10 | +10 | +11.5 | -1.5 | Win |
Close = the median of the books' last pregame quotes in our capture. CLV = locked number minus close, in points from our side (positive means we held the better number). Picks grade against the locked number, never the close.
Members see every open pick here, the moment it locks, with whether our number is still available. Join or sign in.
Biggest moves, last 24 hours
Median of the books quoting now against the median 24 hours ago. Ranked by spread move; a total move counts half.
- Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts spread Massachusetts -4.5 to Massachusetts -6.5
- Louisville at NC State spread Louisville -5.5 to Louisville -4
- Western Kentucky at New Mexico State total 55.5 to 57.5
- Memphis at Charlotte total 54.5 to 52.5
- Oregon State at Colorado State spread Oregon State -5.5 to Oregon State -6.5
- Texas Tech at Colorado spread Texas Tech -13.5 to Texas Tech -12.5
Every book, every game
Spreads from each team's side, totals as the number. The highlighted cell is the best number on that side (line first, then price). A book whose last quote is more than six hours older than the game's newest capture is shown faded and left out of the best number and the median.
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Thu, Oct 1, 8:00 PM ET
| Book | Western Kentucky | New Mexico State | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | +2.5 -108 | -2.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 |
| FD | +2.5 -110 | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 |
| MGM | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -112 | 57.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 |
| PIN | +2.5 -103 | -2.5 -113 | 57.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 |
| BOV | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 |
| First | +2.5 | -2.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 |
- Spread New Mexico State -2.5 to New Mexico State -2.5 since Sep 27, no move · 24h no move
- Total 53.5 to 57.5, up 4 · 24h up 2
- Log29 captures · newest Sep 29, 5:22 PM ET
Key number 3. When the spread sat within a point of 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 7.1% of 2,489 CFB games (2013-2025).
North Texas at Tulsa
Thu, Oct 1, 9:00 PM ET
| Book | North Texas | Tulsa | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | +1.5 -120 | -1.5 +100 | 57.5 -112 | 57.5 -108 |
| FD | +1.5 -114 | -1.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 |
| MGM | +1 -110 | -1 -108 | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -108 |
| PIN | +1 -106 | -1 -110 | 58 -101 | 58 -117 |
| BOV | +1 -110 | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 |
| First | +2 | -2 | 58 | 58 |
- Spread Tulsa -2 to Tulsa -1 since Sep 27, 1 toward North Texas · 24h no move
- Total 58 to 57.5, down 0.5 · 24h no move
- Log31 captures · newest Sep 29, 5:22 PM ET
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM ET
| Book | Pittsburgh | Virginia Tech | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -118 | 54.5 -102 |
| FD | +3.5 -114 | -3.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | 54.5 -104 |
| MGM | +3 -102 | -3 -118 | 54.5 -118 | 54.5 -102 |
| PIN | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 +101 | 54.5 -117 | 54.5 -102 |
| BOV | +3.5 -120 | -3.5 +100 | 55 -110 | 55 -110 |
| First | +4.5 | -4.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
- Spread Virginia Tech -4.5 to Virginia Tech -3.5 since Sep 23, 1 toward Pittsburgh · 24h no move
- Total 52.5 to 54.5, up 2 · 24h up 1
- Log86 captures · newest Sep 29, 5:22 PM ET
Key number 3. When the spread sat within a point of 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 7.1% of 2,489 CFB games (2013-2025).
Members
53 more CFB games on the member desk
Members get every game with every book we capture (5 today), the best number on each side, the move since open, and each of our locked picks against the market the moment it locks.
Why half a point matters: CFB key numbers
When the spread sits near a key number, the half point on either side of it decides the ticket whenever the favorite wins by exactly that number. These are historical shares with their samples, not a forecast.
| Number | Games with the spread within a point | Favorite won by exactly it | Share | All games decided by it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 949 | 26 | 2.7% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2,234 | 46 | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| 3key | 2,489 | 177 | 7.1% | 9.2% |
| 4 | 2,112 | 53 | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| 5 | 1,444 | 26 | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| 6 | 1,799 | 28 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 7key | 1,958 | 132 | 6.7% | 8.2% |
| 8 | 1,463 | 22 | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| 10key | 1,274 | 58 | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| 14key | 1,198 | 48 | 4.0% | 4.4% |
| 17key | 868 | 36 | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| 21key | 639 | 36 | 5.6% | 3.8% |
Source: CFBD games and lines (edgelabs.cfb_games, edgelabs.cfb_lines, one provider per game), seasons 2013-2025, n = 14,784 games with a final score (13,447 with a spread). A number is marked key when the share is at least 4.0% on at least 200 games. Rebuilt by scripts/tools/build_key_numbers.py.
How to read this desk
- Lines come from our own capture of 5 US books through The Odds API, stored append-only. "First" is the first capture in our log, not necessarily the book's true opening number.
- Only pregame quotes count. Once a game kicks off, its last pregame capture is the close and it never changes.
- Best number: the highest line for a side (the lowest total for an over, the highest for an under), then the best price. It is the number to shop for, not a recommendation to bet.
- Closing line value is shown for every locked pick, good or bad. It measures the price we took, not whether the pick won.
- Nothing on this page is a win probability, and no line here is a lean. Our picks and their grades live on the CFB board and the record.