College football win totals 2026: where every team stands against the number
What am I looking at?
This is our win total board's scoreboard. Our positions were locked before week 1 (founder ruling 184) and they do not move: 17 teams carry a locked over or under against the win total we picked when the board went up, 9 over and 8 under, and every position grades against that number at the end of the season, win or lose. What this page tracks instead is the standing against it, recomputed every day: actual wins and losses from the games already played, plus the remaining schedule walked with the current Edge Labs in-season rating using the same win-probability math behind the original number, added together into a projected win total. Every other FBS team, the vast majority of the board, carries no locked position here, and we say so rather than making one up.
The gap column is projected wins minus the total we locked. It is not a new pick, and it is not a win probability, it is the schedule-adjusted read on where the season is trending relative to the number already on the board.
See the locked positions and the case behind each one on the futures board. The rating behind every projection is at power ratings.
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Total at lock | Gap | Our position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 4-0 | 8.71 | 6.5 | +2.21 | Under |
| Middle Tennessee | 2-2 | 5.68 | 3.5 | +2.18 | Over |
| North Texas | 2-2 | 7.32 | 5.5 | +1.82 | Over |
| Iowa State | 2-2 | 6.05 | 4.5 | +1.55 | Over |
| Virginia Tech | 4-0 | 7.90 | 6.5 | +1.40 | Under |
| Indiana | 4-0 | 9.35 | 10.5 | -1.15 | Under |
| UConn | 2-2 | 6.64 | 5.5 | +1.14 | Over |
| Louisiana Tech | 1-2 | 6.59 | 5.5 | +1.09 | Over |
| Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 2.43 | 3.5 | -1.07 | Over |
| Akron | 1-3 | 3.74 | 4.5 | -0.76 | Over |
| Florida State | 2-2 | 6.26 | 5.5 | +0.76 | Over |
| Southern Miss | 1-3 | 4.22 | 3.5 | +0.72 | Over |
| Wisconsin | 3-1 | 7.19 | 6.5 | +0.69 | Under |
| Liberty | 3-1 | 7.99 | 8.5 | -0.51 | Under |
| Boise State | 3-1 | 8.25 | 8.5 | -0.25 | Under |
| Texas | 4-0 | 9.67 | 9.5 | +0.17 | Under |
| Oklahoma State | 3-1 | 6.42 | 6.5 | -0.08 | Under |
| Air Force | 2-1 | 6.95 | · | · | No position |
| Alabama | 4-0 | 9.70 | · | · | No position |
| App State | 3-1 | 7.44 | · | · | No position |
| Arizona | 3-1 | 7.46 | · | · | No position |
| Arizona State | 2-1 | 6.10 | · | · | No position |
| Arkansas | 2-2 | 3.85 | · | · | No position |
| Arkansas State | 2-2 | 5.76 | · | · | No position |
| Army | 2-1 | 7.37 | · | · | No position |
| Auburn | 3-1 | 6.51 | · | · | No position |
| Ball State | 1-3 | 3.81 | · | · | No position |
| Baylor | 3-1 | 7.02 | · | · | No position |
| Boston College | 2-2 | 3.46 | · | · | No position |
| Bowling Green | 0-4 | 2.84 | · | · | No position |
| Buffalo | 2-2 | 5.06 | · | · | No position |
| BYU | 3-0 | 8.66 | · | · | No position |
| California | 2-2 | 4.53 | · | · | No position |
| Central Michigan | 2-2 | 6.07 | · | · | No position |
| Charlotte | 0-4 | 1.67 | · | · | No position |
| Cincinnati | 4-0 | 7.17 | · | · | No position |
| Clemson | 3-1 | 7.99 | · | · | No position |
| Coastal Carolina | 1-3 | 3.87 | · | · | No position |
| Colorado | 2-2 | 4.38 | · | · | No position |
| Colorado State | 2-2 | 4.57 | · | · | No position |
| Delaware | 2-2 | 6.14 | · | · | No position |
| Duke | 4-0 | 8.53 | · | · | No position |
| East Carolina | 2-2 | 6.53 | · | · | No position |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-3 | 4.44 | · | · | No position |
| Florida | 4-0 | 8.98 | · | · | No position |
| Florida Atlantic | 3-1 | 7.29 | · | · | No position |
| Florida International | 2-2 | 6.22 | · | · | No position |
| Fresno State | 3-1 | 6.92 | · | · | No position |
| Georgia | 4-0 | 10.22 | · | · | No position |
| Georgia Southern | 1-3 | 4.55 | · | · | No position |
| Georgia State | 3-1 | 7.03 | · | · | No position |
| Georgia Tech | 1-3 | 3.63 | · | · | No position |
| Hawai'i | 1-3 | 4.65 | · | · | No position |
| Houston | 3-1 | 7.59 | · | · | No position |
| Illinois | 2-2 | 5.60 | · | · | No position |
| Iowa | 4-0 | 8.62 | · | · | No position |
| Jacksonville State | 3-2 | 6.60 | · | · | No position |
| James Madison | 4-0 | 10.24 | · | · | No position |
| Kansas | 1-2 | 4.28 | · | · | No position |
| Kansas State | 3-1 | 7.94 | · | · | No position |
| Kennesaw State | 1-3 | 4.45 | · | · | No position |
| Kent State | 2-2 | 6.12 | · | · | No position |
| Kentucky | 3-1 | 6.12 | · | · | No position |
| Louisiana | 3-1 | 8.69 | · | · | No position |
| Louisville | 2-2 | 7.06 | · | · | No position |
| LSU | 3-1 | 8.89 | · | · | No position |
| Marshall | 3-1 | 7.09 | · | · | No position |
| Maryland | 2-2 | 4.71 | · | · | No position |
| Massachusetts | 4-0 | 8.54 | · | · | No position |
| Memphis | 3-1 | 7.89 | · | · | No position |
| Miami | 4-0 | 9.92 | · | · | No position |
| Miami (OH) | 2-2 | 6.85 | · | · | No position |
| Michigan | 3-1 | 7.58 | · | · | No position |
| Michigan State | 2-2 | 5.17 | · | · | No position |
| Minnesota | 3-1 | 6.17 | · | · | No position |
| Mississippi State | 4-0 | 8.15 | · | · | No position |
| Missouri | 3-1 | 6.41 | · | · | No position |
| Missouri State | 1-3 | 5.35 | · | · | No position |
| Navy | 1-2 | 4.99 | · | · | No position |
| NC State | 2-2 | 6.01 | · | · | No position |
| Nebraska | 4-0 | 8.45 | · | · | No position |
| Nevada | 1-3 | 4.13 | · | · | No position |
| New Mexico | 3-1 | 9.22 | · | · | No position |
| New Mexico State | 1-3 | 4.25 | · | · | No position |
| North Carolina | 2-1 | 5.52 | · | · | No position |
| North Dakota State | 4-0 | 9.26 | · | · | No position |
| Northwestern | 2-1 | 6.85 | · | · | No position |
| Notre Dame | 4-0 | 10.94 | · | · | No position |
| Ohio | 2-2 | 6.80 | · | · | No position |
| Ohio State | 3-1 | 9.19 | · | · | No position |
| Oklahoma | 2-2 | 5.68 | · | · | No position |
| Old Dominion | 1-3 | 4.20 | · | · | No position |
| Ole Miss | 3-1 | 7.43 | · | · | No position |
| Oregon | 3-1 | 8.09 | · | · | No position |
| Oregon State | 2-2 | 5.50 | · | · | No position |
| Penn State | 3-1 | 8.31 | · | · | No position |
| Pittsburgh | 4-0 | 8.49 | · | · | No position |
| Purdue | 1-3 | 3.14 | · | · | No position |
| Rice | 1-3 | 4.04 | · | · | No position |
| Rutgers | 1-3 | 2.77 | · | · | No position |
| Sacramento State | 1-4 | 2.77 | · | · | No position |
| Sam Houston | 1-3 | 4.08 | · | · | No position |
| San Diego State | 1-3 | 3.68 | · | · | No position |
| San José State | 2-2 | 5.91 | · | · | No position |
| SMU | 3-1 | 8.12 | · | · | No position |
| South Alabama | 2-2 | 6.15 | · | · | No position |
| South Carolina | 2-2 | 5.10 | · | · | No position |
| South Florida | 4-0 | 8.81 | · | · | No position |
| Stanford | 2-2 | 4.58 | · | · | No position |
| Syracuse | 1-2 | 3.47 | · | · | No position |
| TCU | 2-2 | 5.49 | · | · | No position |
| Temple | 1-3 | 5.11 | · | · | No position |
| Tennessee | 3-1 | 7.73 | · | · | No position |
| Texas A&M | 2-2 | 6.50 | · | · | No position |
| Texas State | 2-2 | 6.08 | · | · | No position |
| Texas Tech | 4-0 | 9.57 | · | · | No position |
| Toledo | 3-1 | 9.29 | · | · | No position |
| Troy | 2-2 | 5.85 | · | · | No position |
| Tulane | 2-2 | 5.92 | · | · | No position |
| Tulsa | 3-1 | 6.03 | · | · | No position |
| UAB | 2-2 | 5.35 | · | · | No position |
| UCF | 3-1 | 7.02 | · | · | No position |
| UL Monroe | 0-4 | 1.70 | · | · | No position |
| UNLV | 2-2 | 7.20 | · | · | No position |
| USC | 4-1 | 7.54 | · | · | No position |
| Utah | 4-0 | 10.28 | · | · | No position |
| Utah State | 1-3 | 3.68 | · | · | No position |
| UTEP | 1-3 | 3.96 | · | · | No position |
| UTSA | 3-1 | 8.32 | · | · | No position |
| Vanderbilt | 3-1 | 5.56 | · | · | No position |
| Virginia | 3-1 | 7.60 | · | · | No position |
| Wake Forest | 3-1 | 7.97 | · | · | No position |
| Washington | 3-1 | 6.40 | · | · | No position |
| Washington State | 1-3 | 4.32 | · | · | No position |
| West Virginia | 3-1 | 5.37 | · | · | No position |
| Western Kentucky | 1-3 | 5.54 | · | · | No position |
| Western Michigan | 2-2 | 7.53 | · | · | No position |
| Wyoming | 2-2 | 4.76 | · | · | No position |
How this is built. Actual record comes from completed 2026 regular season games.
The remaining schedule is walked opponent by opponent with the current Edge Labs in-season
rating (or the preseason rating for a team that has not played), the same win-probability
model behind the original win total board, FCS opponents included at a fixed below-replacement
rating. Locked totals and positions come straight from the board we published before week 1
and never edit after the fact. Research, not advice · 21+.
See the full case for every locked position →