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Every Pick, graded in public

The 2026 record

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CFB Picks, week by week

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CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 6 Picks 11-7-1 · 19 Picks graded, 1 push

  • Washington State at Washington Sep 6 Washington State +23.5 Washington State 10, Washington 24 Win
  • Western Michigan at Michigan Sep 5 Western Michigan +27.5 Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13 Win
  • UL Monroe at Mississippi State Sep 5 UL Monroe +28.5 UL Monroe 13, Mississippi State 62 Loss
  • Oklahoma State at Tulsa Sep 5 Tulsa +14 · free Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24 Win
  • Texas State at Texas Sep 5 Texas State +30.5 Texas State 7, Texas 59 Loss
  • Kent State at South Carolina Sep 5 Kent State +36.5 Kent State 0, South Carolina 57 Loss
  • Ohio at Nebraska Sep 5 Ohio +23.5 Ohio 21, Nebraska 49 Loss
  • North Texas at Indiana Sep 5 North Texas +40.5 · free North Texas 16, Indiana 52 Win
  • Coastal Carolina at West Virginia Sep 5 Coastal Carolina +21.5 · free Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31 Win
  • East Carolina at Alabama Sep 5 East Carolina +28.5 East Carolina 10, Alabama 48 Loss
  • Toledo at Michigan State Sep 4 Toledo +10 Toledo 20, Michigan State 30 Push
  • UAB at Illinois Sep 3 UAB +28.5 UAB 23, Illinois 42 Win
  • Akron at Wake Forest Sep 3 Akron +24.5 Akron 16, Wake Forest 38 Win
  • Memphis at UNLV Aug 29 Memphis +4.5 Memphis 27, UNLV 21 Win
  • Hawai'i at Stanford Aug 29 Hawai'i +4 · free Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37 Loss
  • New Mexico State at Florida State Aug 29 New Mexico State +31.5 New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34 Win
  • NC State at Virginia Aug 29 NC State +4 · free Virginia 34, NC State 8 Loss
  • San José State at USC Aug 29 San José State +38.5 USC 42, San José State 26 (lost by 16, covered +38.5) Win
  • North Carolina vs TCU Aug 29 North Carolina +7.5 · free North Carolina 15, TCU 10 (won outright) Win

Kept apart from this record: the Prop Desk's own record of its prop Picks and Buck's column record, both on the Prop Desk page, and the column tallies of Ace, Stack and Buck in The Lab.

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How the ledger works

Every Pick we post lands here and grades in public at the number it locked at. Nothing is removed: the ledger only ever grows. The tiles are the record and the number our posts cite, each league counted on its own. Every Pick locks the moment it publishes, at the number it published at, and grades against that same number, win or lose. A call keeps the label it carried when it locked and is never recomputed after the fact. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick, and it is not on this record.

Free picks are the Picks we released publicly, each stamped when it dropped. That tab keeps every free pick ever released, including the earlier ones that were Leans, because it is the record a reader who never paid us actually saw. Every free Pick is also in the Picks record, tagged free, and counted once there; the earlier free calls that were Leans are on this tab only.

How every pick gets graded

  • Every pick freezes at post time. The side, the line, and the number we played never change after we hit post.
  • Every pick grades against the final score at the number we posted.
  • Wins and misses both post within 24 hours. Same format, same weight.
  • The ledger is append-only. Nothing gets deleted, edited, or quietly dropped.

How the board is made

Where the board comes from

Every call comes from our three analysts, Ace, Stack and Buck. A Pick is our strongest call, and Picks are the only calls on this record. The Prop Desk and the three columns keep their own records, linked below the list.

A Pick locks the moment it publishes, at the number it published at, and grades against that number within 24 hours of the final. A Pick is never a win probability or a hit rate: the Picks record at the top of this page is a count of graded Picks, not a promise about the next one.

See the early-totals backtest and its final result →

Locked futures positions, graded at season end at the number we posted: college football win totals, NFL win totals and the Super Bowl board, and the win total standings.