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CFB week 5 · Oct 1 to Oct 3 Picks 19-12 · 31 Picks graded

  • San José State at Hawai'i Oct 3 Under 51.5 (total) San José State 20, Hawai'i 16 Win
  • Texas State at San Diego State Oct 3 Texas State -4.5 Texas State 29, San Diego State 31 Loss
  • Texas State at San Diego State Oct 3 Under 59.5 (total) Texas State 29, San Diego State 31 Loss
  • Arkansas State at Louisiana Oct 3 Louisiana -6.5 Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23 Loss
  • Arkansas State at Louisiana Oct 3 Under 48 (total) · free Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23 Win
  • McNeese at LSU Oct 3 Under 62.5 (total) McNeese 14, LSU 63 Loss
  • Washington at USC Oct 3 Under 58.5 (total) Washington 21, USC 25 Win
  • UL Monroe at South Alabama Oct 3 Under 57.5 (total) UL Monroe 35, South Alabama 52 Loss
  • Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina Oct 3 Under 54.5 (total) Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 24 Loss
  • UTSA at Rice Oct 3 Under 56.5 (total) UTSA 16, Rice 14 Win
  • Oregon State at Colorado State Oct 3 Over 61.5 (total) Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26 Win
  • Bowling Green at Miami (OH) Oct 3 Bowling Green +13.5 Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20 Win
  • Samford at UAB Oct 3 Samford +30.5 Samford 14, UAB 33 Win
  • Old Dominion at Georgia State Oct 3 Georgia State -1 · free Old Dominion 10, Georgia State 42 Win
  • Florida at Missouri Oct 3 Florida -4.5 Florida 17, Missouri 45 Loss
  • Bowling Green at Miami (OH) Oct 3 Under 43.5 (total) Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20 Loss
  • Wyoming at North Dakota State Oct 3 Under 46 (total) Wyoming 0, North Dakota State 28 Win
  • Samford at UAB Oct 3 Under 52.5 (total) Samford 14, UAB 33 Win
  • Auburn at Tennessee Oct 3 Under 54.5 (total) Auburn 14, Tennessee 24 Win
  • Michigan State at Wisconsin Oct 3 Michigan State +10 Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31 Loss
  • Michigan State at Wisconsin Oct 3 Under 43.5 (total) Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31 Win
  • Michigan at Minnesota Oct 3 Minnesota +6 · free Michigan 14, Minnesota 20 Win
  • Middle Tennessee at Kansas Oct 3 Middle Tennessee +19.5 Middle Tennessee 0, Kansas 55 Loss
  • Michigan at Minnesota Oct 3 Under 43.5 (total) Michigan 14, Minnesota 20 Win
  • Notre Dame at North Carolina Oct 3 Under 47.5 (total) Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26 Loss
  • UCF at Houston Oct 3 Under 51.5 (total) UCF 17, Houston 27 Win
  • Liberty at Delaware Oct 2 Liberty -7 Liberty 30, Delaware 14 Win
  • Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech Oct 2 Pittsburgh +3.5 Pittsburgh 35, Virginia Tech 33 Win
  • Liberty at Delaware Oct 2 Under 50.5 (total) Liberty 30, Delaware 14 Win
  • North Texas at Tulsa Oct 1 North Texas +1.5 North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 Win
  • North Texas at Tulsa Oct 1 Under 58 (total) North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 Loss

Kept apart from this record: the Prop Desk's own record of its prop Picks and Buck's column record, both on the Prop Desk page, and the column tallies of Ace, Stack and Buck in The Lab.

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How the ledger works

Every Pick we post lands here and grades in public at the number it locked at. Nothing is removed: the ledger only ever grows. The tiles are the record and the number our posts cite, each league counted on its own. Every Pick locks the moment it publishes, at the number it published at, and grades against that same number, win or lose. A call keeps the label it carried when it locked and is never recomputed after the fact. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick, and it is not on this record.

Free picks are the Picks we released publicly, each stamped when it dropped. That tab keeps every free pick ever released, including the earlier ones that were Leans, because it is the record a reader who never paid us actually saw. Every free Pick is also in the Picks record, tagged free, and counted once there; the earlier free calls that were Leans are on this tab only.

How every pick gets graded

  • Every pick freezes at post time. The side, the line, and the number we played never change after we hit post.
  • Every pick grades against the final score at the number we posted.
  • Wins and misses both post within 24 hours. Same format, same weight.
  • The ledger is append-only. Nothing gets deleted, edited, or quietly dropped.

How the board is made

Where the board comes from

Every call comes from our three analysts, Ace, Stack and Buck. A Pick is our strongest call, and Picks are the only calls on this record. The Prop Desk and the three columns keep their own records, linked below the list.

A Pick locks the moment it publishes, at the number it published at, and grades against that number within 24 hours of the final. A Pick is never a win probability or a hit rate: the Picks record at the top of this page is a count of graded Picks, not a promise about the next one.

See the early-totals backtest and its final result →

Locked futures positions, graded at season end at the number we posted: college football win totals, NFL win totals and the Super Bowl board, and the win total standings.