2026 College Football Win Total Predictions: All 138 Teams
These are the preseason numbers, frozen before week 1. See where every team stands now, with actual record and the remaining schedule walked against the position we locked.
What am I looking at?
This is our predicted win total for every rated FBS team in 2026, next to the number the sportsbooks posted. The prediction is the EL Preseason Rating v1, our own composite built from five components in the Edge Labs database: last season's performance, four years of blue chip recruiting, returning production, transfer class quality, and coaching continuity. The rating walks each team's actual 2026 schedule game by game and sums the win probabilities into expected wins. Before it priced anything it was tested on two held out seasons, where it missed real win totals by 1.88 wins on average against 1.97 for a rating built on last season alone.
There are 138 FBS teams in 2026. We rate the 138 with FBS-comparable history; North Dakota State and Sacramento State moved up from the FCS this season, so they appear at the bottom of the table with their posted market lines and no model number until they build FBS data.
The names at the top will not surprise anyone. Ohio State holds the No. 1 rating, with Georgia, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame behind it, and Notre Dame carries the highest expected wins on the table at 10.83 against a posted 11.5. The table earns its keep in the disagreements. Oklahoma State is the widest gap on the board: the market hung 6.5 wins and our number comes back 3.01. UCLA reads 3.61 against a 6.5. On the other side, North Texas walks its schedule to 7.51 wins on a 5.5 line, and Boise State comes back 6.18 against the 8.5 the books posted on the name.
A gap is a lean, not a guarantee, and a gap smaller than about a win is noise against the model's own 1.88 win error. The 7 leans that clear our error bar by two full wins, with the full case and the price behind each one, live on the futures board. The rating itself, with the talent layer under it, is at power ratings.
Every team · our number vs the market line
Our numbers: the EL Preseason Rating v1 (season 2026). Market lines: BetMGM and DraftKings via the VegasInsider win totals board, captured Sep 22, 2026. This table reads the board file at request time, so a new capture shows up without a rebuild. 138 of 138 rated teams carry a captured line; gaps of a full win or more get the flag (38 teams). The two FBS newcomers sit at the bottom, lines posted, not yet rated.
| Rk | Team | Our expected wins | Market line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 10.36 | 9.5 | +0.86 |
| 2 | Georgia | 9.93 | 10.5 | -0.57 |
| 3 | LSU UNDER | 7.19 | 9.5 | -2.31 |
| 4 | Alabama | 7.62 | 8.5 | -0.88 |
| 5 | Miami | 10.12 | 10.5 | -0.38 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 10.83 | 11.5 | -0.67 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 8.11 | 8.5 | -0.39 |
| 8 | Texas UNDER | 7.78 | 9.5 | -1.72 |
| 9 | Indiana UNDER | 8.60 | 10.5 | -1.90 |
| 10 | Tennessee | 7.62 | 7.5 | +0.12 |
| 11 | Utah | 9.43 | 8.5 | +0.93 |
| 12 | Missouri | 6.56 | 6.5 | +0.06 |
| 13 | Arizona | 7.41 | 7.5 | -0.09 |
| 14 | Nebraska | 6.25 | 6.5 | -0.25 |
| 15 | Wake Forest | 5.81 | 6.5 | -0.69 |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 7.59 | 8.5 | -0.91 |
| 17 | UCLA UNDER | 3.61 | 6.5 | -2.89 |
| 18 | Kentucky | 3.62 | 4.5 | -0.88 |
| 19 | Texas A&M OVER | 9.78 | 8.5 | +1.28 |
| 20 | Boise State UNDER | 6.18 | 9.5 | -3.32 |
| 21 | South Carolina | 6.64 | 6.5 | +0.14 |
| 22 | Northwestern | 5.81 | 5.5 | +0.31 |
| 23 | BYU | 8.30 | 8.5 | -0.20 |
| 24 | Auburn | 6.87 | 6.5 | +0.37 |
| 25 | Florida | 6.61 | 7.5 | -0.89 |
| 26 | Oregon | 10.09 | 10.5 | -0.41 |
| 27 | Iowa | 7.73 | 7.5 | +0.23 |
| 28 | Texas Tech UNDER | 10.34 | 11.5 | -1.16 |
| 29 | Louisville | 7.51 | 8.5 | -0.99 |
| 30 | Michigan | 7.80 | 7.5 | +0.30 |
| 31 | Wisconsin UNDER | 4.74 | 6.5 | -1.76 |
| 32 | Houston | 7.86 | 8.5 | -0.64 |
| 33 | Florida State OVER | 7.88 | 5.5 | +2.38 |
| 34 | USC | 8.70 | 8.5 | +0.20 |
| 35 | SMU | 8.54 | 8.5 | +0.04 |
| 36 | Penn State | 8.57 | 9.5 | -0.93 |
| 37 | James Madison | 8.08 | 8.5 | -0.42 |
| 38 | Mississippi State | 4.78 | 4.5 | +0.28 |
| 39 | Oregon State | 3.82 | 4.5 | -0.68 |
| 40 | Washington | 7.95 | 8.5 | -0.55 |
| 41 | Baylor | 5.92 | 5.5 | +0.42 |
| 42 | Oklahoma State UNDER | 3.01 | 4.5 | -1.49 |
| 43 | New Mexico | 7.14 | 7.5 | -0.36 |
| 44 | UTSA | 7.57 | 7.5 | +0.07 |
| 45 | Duke | 5.96 | 6.5 | -0.54 |
| 46 | Liberty | 6.57 | 7.5 | -0.93 |
| 47 | Illinois | 6.84 | 6.5 | +0.34 |
| 48 | North Carolina UNDER | 4.49 | 5.5 | -1.01 |
| 49 | TCU | 6.69 | 6.5 | +0.19 |
| 50 | Clemson OVER | 8.64 | 7.5 | +1.14 |
| 51 | Army | 7.37 | 7.5 | -0.13 |
| 52 | Virginia Tech UNDER | 4.47 | 7.5 | -3.03 |
| 53 | UCF | 6.04 | 6.5 | -0.46 |
| 54 | North Texas OVER | 7.51 | 6.5 | +1.01 |
| 55 | Fresno State UNDER | 5.78 | 7.5 | -1.72 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 7.76 | 8.5 | -0.74 |
| 57 | Minnesota | 5.81 | 6.5 | -0.69 |
| 58 | Texas State | 6.13 | 6.5 | -0.37 |
| 59 | Cincinnati | 5.19 | 5.5 | -0.31 |
| 60 | Memphis UNDER | 7.18 | 8.5 | -1.32 |
| 61 | Arkansas | 3.72 | 3.5 | +0.22 |
| 62 | Pittsburgh UNDER | 7.26 | 8.5 | -1.24 |
| 63 | North Dakota State | · | 9.5 | · |
| 64 | South Florida | 7.97 | 8.5 | -0.53 |
| 65 | Purdue OVER | 3.97 | 2.5 | +1.47 |
| 66 | Louisiana Tech OVER | 7.11 | 5.5 | +1.61 |
| 67 | Kansas | 5.99 | 5.5 | +0.49 |
| 68 | Toledo OVER | 8.98 | 7.5 | +1.48 |
| 69 | Virginia UNDER | 7.00 | 8.5 | -1.50 |
| 70 | Iowa State OVER | 6.61 | 4.5 | +2.11 |
| 71 | UConn OVER | 7.11 | 5.5 | +1.61 |
| 72 | Louisiana | 7.45 | 7.5 | -0.05 |
| 73 | Western Michigan | 7.51 | 7.5 | +0.01 |
| 74 | Vanderbilt OVER | 6.73 | 5.5 | +1.23 |
| 75 | UNLV | 7.50 | 7.5 | 0.00 |
| 76 | Michigan State | 4.20 | 4.5 | -0.30 |
| 77 | Arizona State UNDER | 5.46 | 6.5 | -1.04 |
| 78 | Syracuse | 3.90 | 4.5 | -0.60 |
| 79 | West Virginia | 4.77 | 5.5 | -0.73 |
| 80 | NC State | 7.35 | 6.5 | +0.85 |
| 81 | Boston College | 3.65 | 3.5 | +0.15 |
| 82 | East Carolina | 7.57 | 7.5 | +0.07 |
| 83 | Ohio | 7.07 | 7.5 | -0.43 |
| 84 | Tulane | 6.71 | 6.5 | +0.21 |
| 85 | Air Force | 7.59 | 7.5 | +0.09 |
| 86 | Delaware | 6.25 | 6.5 | -0.25 |
| 87 | Navy UNDER | 6.83 | 8.5 | -1.67 |
| 88 | Utah State | 4.75 | 5.5 | -0.75 |
| 89 | Tulsa | 5.64 | 6.5 | -0.86 |
| 90 | Maryland | 5.93 | 5.5 | +0.43 |
| 91 | Georgia Southern | 4.60 | 5.5 | -0.90 |
| 92 | App State | 6.28 | 6.5 | -0.22 |
| 93 | Georgia State | 4.14 | 4.5 | -0.36 |
| 94 | Florida Atlantic | 5.14 | 5.5 | -0.36 |
| 95 | Georgia Tech OVER | 6.55 | 4.5 | +2.05 |
| 96 | Stanford | 3.40 | 3.5 | -0.10 |
| 97 | Colorado | 4.73 | 4.5 | +0.23 |
| 98 | Washington State | 6.38 | 5.5 | +0.88 |
| 99 | Miami (OH) | 6.61 | 7.5 | -0.89 |
| 100 | South Alabama | 5.95 | 5.5 | +0.45 |
| 101 | Florida International | 6.39 | 5.5 | +0.89 |
| 102 | Nevada | 5.68 | 5.5 | +0.18 |
| 103 | Rutgers OVER | 5.53 | 2.5 | +3.03 |
| 104 | Arkansas State | 5.79 | 5.5 | +0.29 |
| 105 | Jacksonville State | 7.22 | 7.5 | -0.28 |
| 106 | UAB | 4.35 | 3.5 | +0.85 |
| 107 | San Diego State | 7.60 | 7.5 | +0.10 |
| 108 | Western Kentucky | 7.72 | 7.5 | +0.22 |
| 109 | Buffalo | 6.04 | 5.5 | +0.54 |
| 110 | Temple | 5.53 | 5.5 | +0.03 |
| 111 | California | 5.55 | 5.5 | +0.05 |
| 112 | Hawai'i OVER | 8.35 | 5.5 | +2.85 |
| 113 | Wyoming OVER | 5.71 | 4.5 | +1.21 |
| 114 | New Mexico State | 4.71 | 4.5 | +0.21 |
| 115 | Marshall | 7.44 | 7.5 | -0.06 |
| 116 | Rice | 3.74 | 3.5 | +0.24 |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee OVER | 5.09 | 3.5 | +1.59 |
| 118 | Eastern Michigan | 6.18 | 5.5 | +0.68 |
| 119 | Central Michigan | 6.39 | 6.5 | -0.11 |
| 120 | Missouri State OVER | 4.95 | 3.5 | +1.45 |
| 121 | Colorado State | 3.66 | 4.5 | -0.84 |
| 122 | Troy | 6.44 | 6.5 | -0.06 |
| 123 | San José State | 5.00 | 5.5 | -0.50 |
| 124 | Coastal Carolina | 4.65 | 5.5 | -0.85 |
| 125 | Southern Miss OVER | 5.28 | 3.5 | +1.78 |
| 126 | Bowling Green | 5.15 | 4.5 | +0.65 |
| 127 | Kent State OVER | 4.53 | 3.5 | +1.03 |
| 128 | Massachusetts UNDER | 2.56 | 5.5 | -2.94 |
| 129 | Kennesaw State | 6.00 | 6.5 | -0.50 |
| 130 | Old Dominion | 6.96 | 7.5 | -0.54 |
| 131 | Ball State | 3.83 | 3.5 | +0.33 |
| 132 | Charlotte OVER | 2.78 | 1.5 | +1.28 |
| 133 | Sam Houston | 3.42 | 3.5 | -0.08 |
| 134 | UL Monroe | 4.36 | 3.5 | +0.86 |
| 135 | UTEP | 4.28 | 3.5 | +0.78 |
| 136 | Akron OVER | 6.04 | 4.5 | +1.54 |
| 137 | Northern Illinois OVER | 5.17 | 3.5 | +1.67 |
| 138 | Sacramento State | · | 4.5 | · |
How these predictions are made
Full methodology
One model, every team, the same treatment. Each team's rating comes from the five components above, each pulled from a producing table in our database. The rating then plays out the team's real 2026 schedule: every matchup becomes a win probability and the probabilities sum to the expected wins you see here. No team gets a manual adjustment.
The validation happened before the season, not after. The model was fit on the 2021 through 2023 seasons and tested on two seasons it never saw. Average miss: 1.88 wins per team. That error bar is why we treat gaps under a win as noise and why only 38 of the 138 teams here carry a flag.
Where the market line comes from. Posted win totals from BetMGM and DraftKings via the VegasInsider board, hand captured with the date and source recorded for every entry. Each team carries one line from those two books, and when they split on a number we record a single line. Books move these lines through August; the capture dates above are the ones behind this table.
Every pick we post grades in public at the record page. Futures grade slowly, and each of these numbers will get its answer when the season ends.
The positions we locked before week 1
7 win totals where our number and the market disagreed by two full wins or more when the board locked in August, each with the components behind it and the correlation warning. They grade at season end at the locked number; they are not new calls.
Provenance: our numbers are the EL Preseason Rating v1 (edgelabs.el_preseason_rating, season 2026, model v1), rendered live from the database on every request. Market lines hand captured from the VegasInsider win totals board (BetMGM and DraftKings), full slate captured Sep 22, 2026, read from the board file at request time so a fresh capture never needs a rebuild. Related: futures board · power ratings · this week's games. Predictions, not guarantees. Research and context · 21+.