Edge Labs · CFB · Talent vs Record
The talent a roster signed vs what it did.
Every FBS team's recruiting talent (the 4-year composite, and its national rank that season) lined up against its actual record. The gap is the story · who outran the roster they had, and who left blue-chip talent on the field. National rank, record, and the sample behind each, on every team.
Read this first
Talent is a leading indicator and records drift back toward the roster. In our point-in-time test (2020·2025, n>150 each side), teams that outran their recruiting talent fell about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the ones that underachieved rose about as much. So these gaps tend to close next year. That is a direction the data leans, not a guaranteed pick and not a bet.
+74gap · pts Biggest overachiever · 2026
Fresno State
Pac-12 · talent #135 of 137 · 3-1 (4 g)
thin talent (#135 of 137), went 3-1. Outran the roster.
-49gap · pts Biggest underachiever · 2026
Charlotte
AAC · talent #71 of 137 · 0-4 (4 g)
thin talent (#71 of 137), went 0-4. Left it on the field.
All FBS · 2026 Talent vs record · biggest gaps first
n=129 teams · 129 ranked | Team | Talent rank | Composite | Record | Win% | Gap (pts) ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno StatePac-12 | #135 / 137 | 58.1 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +74 |
| New MexicoMountain West | #134 / 137 | 58.4 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +73 |
| James MadisonSun Belt | #99 / 137 | 65.8 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +72 |
| Air ForceMountain West | #123 / 137 | 63.1 | 2-1 (3g) | 67% | +56 |
| ArmyAAC | #121 / 137 | 63.6 | 2-1 (3g) | 67% | +55 |
| MarshallSun Belt | #105 / 137 | 65.3 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +51 |
| DelawareC-USA | #137 / 137 | 57.0 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +50 |
| TulsaAAC | #103 / 137 | 65.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +50 |
| CharlotteAAC | #71 / 137 | 69.4 | 0-4 (4g) | 0% | -49 |
| Texas A&MSEC | #4 / 137 | 83.6 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -48 |
| CincinnatiBig 12 | #66 / 137 | 70.0 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +48 |
| BYUBig 12 | #65 / 137 | 70.2 | 3-0 (3g) | 100% | +47 |
| Georgia TechACC | #39 / 137 | 72.8 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -47 |
| DukeACC | #64 / 137 | 70.2 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +46 |
| South FloridaAAC | #63 / 137 | 70.6 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +46 |
| Boise StatePac-12 | #96 / 137 | 66.1 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +45 |
| Kent StateMAC | #129 / 137 | 62.4 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +44 |
| Central MichiganMAC | #128 / 137 | 62.5 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +43 |
| RutgersBig Ten | #44 / 137 | 72.3 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -43 |
| South CarolinaSEC | #10 / 137 | 80.4 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -43 |
| Georgia StateSun Belt | #92 / 137 | 66.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +42 |
| OklahomaSEC | #12 / 137 | 79.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -42 |
| Florida StateACC | #14 / 137 | 79.4 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -40 |
| UtahBig 12 | #54 / 137 | 71.5 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +39 |
| UTSAAAC | #86 / 137 | 67.9 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +38 |
| LibertyC-USA | #85 / 137 | 68.0 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +37 |
| Western MichiganMAC | #118 / 137 | 63.9 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +36 |
| TCUBig 12 | #21 / 137 | 75.5 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -35 |
| MarylandBig Ten | #22 / 137 | 75.1 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -35 |
| UCLABig Ten | #48 / 137 | 72.0 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +35 |
| KansasBig 12 | #46 / 137 | 72.3 | 1-2 (3g) | 33% | -34 |
| VirginiaACC | #79 / 137 | 68.4 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +32 |
| IowaBig Ten | #45 / 137 | 72.3 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +32 |
| UNLVMountain West | #112 / 137 | 64.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +32 |
| PittsburghACC | #42 / 137 | 72.4 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +30 |
| Florida AtlanticAAC | #76 / 137 | 68.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +30 |
| Texas StateSun Belt | #109 / 137 | 64.9 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +29 |
| Texas TechBig 12 | #41 / 137 | 72.7 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +29 |
| Florida InternationalC-USA | #108 / 137 | 64.9 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +29 |
| ColoradoBig 12 | #31 / 137 | 73.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -28 |
| SyracuseACC | #55 / 137 | 71.5 | 1-2 (3g) | 33% | -27 |
| MemphisAAC | #70 / 137 | 69.5 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +26 |
| IndianaBig Ten | #36 / 137 | 73.3 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +26 |
| WyomingMountain West | #104 / 137 | 65.5 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +26 |
| Ohio StateBig Ten | #1 / 137 | 85.4 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -25 |
| StanfordACC | #35 / 137 | 73.4 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -25 |
| ToledoMAC | #69 / 137 | 69.5 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +25 |
| Kennesaw StateC-USA | #136 / 137 | 57.1 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +24 |
| BuffaloMAC | #102 / 137 | 65.7 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +24 |
| West VirginiaBig 12 | #68 / 137 | 69.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +24 |
| NebraskaBig Ten | #32 / 137 | 73.8 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +23 |
| Arkansas StateSun Belt | #100 / 137 | 65.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +23 |
| PurdueBig Ten | #73 / 137 | 69.3 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -22 |
| Old DominionSun Belt | #133 / 137 | 60.4 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +22 |
| Jacksonville StateC-USA | #84 / 137 | 68.0 | 3-2 (5g) | 60% | +21 |
| Mississippi StateSEC | #29 / 137 | 74.0 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +21 |
| Southern MissSun Belt | #75 / 137 | 68.8 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -21 |
| New Mexico StateC-USA | #131 / 137 | 60.5 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +21 |
| Eastern MichiganMAC | #110 / 137 | 64.9 | 2-3 (5g) | 40% | +20 |
| LSUSEC | #9 / 137 | 80.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -19 |
| Boston CollegeACC | #43 / 137 | 72.3 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -19 |
| Wake ForestACC | #61 / 137 | 70.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +19 |
| North TexasAAC | #93 / 137 | 66.2 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +18 |
| OregonBig Ten | #11 / 137 | 80.4 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -18 |
| UTEPMountain West | #126 / 137 | 62.6 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +17 |
| Virginia TechACC | #24 / 137 | 74.9 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +17 |
| LouisvilleACC | #47 / 137 | 72.2 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -16 |
| Penn StateBig Ten | #13 / 137 | 79.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -16 |
| Louisiana TechC-USA | #113 / 137 | 64.8 | 1-2 (3g) | 33% | +16 |
| Missouri StateC-USA | #124 / 137 | 63.0 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +15 |
| IllinoisBig Ten | #90 / 137 | 67.0 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +15 |
| ClemsonACC | #15 / 137 | 79.1 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -15 |
| Middle TennesseeC-USA | #88 / 137 | 67.5 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +14 |
| MichiganBig Ten | #16 / 137 | 78.7 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -14 |
| North CarolinaACC | #28 / 137 | 74.2 | 2-1 (3g) | 67% | -13 |
| MinnesotaBig Ten | #53 / 137 | 71.5 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +13 |
| AuburnSEC | #17 / 137 | 78.6 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -13 |
| Michigan StateBig Ten | #51 / 137 | 71.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -13 |
| South AlabamaSun Belt | #87 / 137 | 67.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +13 |
| Iowa StateBig 12 | #52 / 137 | 71.5 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -12 |
| Ole MissSEC | #18 / 137 | 78.2 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -12 |
| NevadaMountain West | #119 / 137 | 63.7 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +12 |
| NavyAAC | #107 / 137 | 65.0 | 1-2 (3g) | 33% | +11 |
| Bowling GreenMAC | #122 / 137 | 63.1 | 0-4 (4g) | 0% | -11 |
| MissouriSEC | #20 / 137 | 75.9 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -11 |
| Oklahoma StateBig 12 | #50 / 137 | 71.8 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +11 |
| Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | #117 / 137 | 64.3 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +10 |
| ArizonaBig 12 | #49 / 137 | 71.9 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +10 |
| OhioMAC | #83 / 137 | 68.1 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +10 |
| Western KentuckyC-USA | #89 / 137 | 67.0 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -10 |
| ArkansasSEC | #56 / 137 | 71.3 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -10 |
| Sam HoustonC-USA | #116 / 137 | 64.3 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +10 |
| UConnIndependent | #82 / 137 | 68.2 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +10 |
| WisconsinBig Ten | #23 / 137 | 75.0 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -9 |
| TempleAAC | #115 / 137 | 64.6 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +9 |
| RiceAAC | #91 / 137 | 66.9 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -9 |
| Northern IllinoisMountain West | #125 / 137 | 62.7 | 0-4 (4g) | 0% | -9 |
| TroySun Belt | #81 / 137 | 68.2 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +9 |
| NorthwesternBig Ten | #58 / 137 | 70.9 | 2-1 (3g) | 67% | +9 |
| San Diego StatePac-12 | #114 / 137 | 64.7 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +8 |
| Colorado StatePac-12 | #80 / 137 | 68.4 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +8 |
| Arizona StateBig 12 | #57 / 137 | 71.0 | 2-1 (3g) | 67% | +8 |
| BaylorBig 12 | #25 / 137 | 74.4 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -7 |
| TulaneAAC | #59 / 137 | 70.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -7 |
| USCBig Ten | #19 / 137 | 76.5 | 4-1 (5g) | 80% | -7 |
| Washington StatePac-12 | #94 / 137 | 66.2 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -7 |
| Oregon StatePac-12 | #78 / 137 | 68.4 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +7 |
| NC StateACC | #60 / 137 | 70.8 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -7 |
| VanderbiltSEC | #26 / 137 | 74.2 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -7 |
| Utah StatePac-12 | #111 / 137 | 64.8 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +6 |
| TennesseeSEC | #27 / 137 | 74.2 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -6 |
| UABAAC | #77 / 137 | 68.5 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +6 |
| FloridaSEC | #8 / 137 | 80.6 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +5 |
| Notre DameIndependent | #7 / 137 | 81.1 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +4 |
| Kansas StateBig 12 | #40 / 137 | 72.7 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +4 |
| AkronMAC | #98 / 137 | 65.9 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -4 |
| UCFBig 12 | #30 / 137 | 73.9 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -4 |
| MiamiACC | #6 / 137 | 82.2 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +4 |
| Miami (OH)MAC | #74 / 137 | 69.1 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | +4 |
| GeorgiaSEC | #5 / 137 | 82.8 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +3 |
| Ball StateMAC | #106 / 137 | 65.0 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | +2 |
| HoustonBig 12 | #38 / 137 | 73.0 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +2 |
| KentuckySEC | #33 / 137 | 73.7 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -1 |
| East CarolinaAAC | #67 / 137 | 69.9 | 2-2 (4g) | 50% | -1 |
| Georgia SouthernSun Belt | #101 / 137 | 65.8 | 1-3 (4g) | 25% | -1 |
| SMUACC | #37 / 137 | 73.2 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | +1 |
| TexasSEC | #3 / 137 | 84.1 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +1 |
| AlabamaSEC | #2 / 137 | 84.1 | 4-0 (4g) | 100% | +1 |
| WashingtonBig Ten | #34 / 137 | 73.7 | 3-1 (4g) | 75% | -1 |
National talent rank is across all 129 FBS programs with a composite this season · record is regular season from game results · gap = win% minus the talent-rank percentile, in points · a frequency and a direction, never a pick or a bet.
This is talent intelligence, not a betting edge. The recruiting composite does not beat the spread · we tested it and it lands near a coin flip against the number in every bucket. What it does do is show where a roster's talent and its record pulled apart, and that gap tends to regress. Every number ships with its sample (games behind the record, programs behind the rank). Research, not advice.