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CFB · Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · neutral site · FINAL Baylor 16, Auburn 17

Baylor vs Auburn. Lean: Auburn -7. No call on the total.

The call

Lean L Spread
Auburn -7
locked Mon 6:36am ET
locked -7 · closed -6.5
Baylor 16, Auburn 17
Called under the rule in force that week.
No call Total
How to read this page

The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own.

The signals and the market

6 independent signals on this game. The tally per side, every angle with its sample size, and the line movement from open to now open with membership. They are research context, never a pick. Membership

Model context

The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.

Locked line
Baylor +7 · Auburn -7
the spread we locked at, it does not move
Our model number
Auburn by 5.8
the calibrated EL CFB rating number
Spread gap
0.7 points
the distance between our model number and the market. Context for the panel, not a call of its own.
Market total
27.5
market total at the model run, Sep 8, 12:28 AM ET
Our total
50.9
EL CFB Totals
Total gap
+23.4
the distance between our model total and the market total. Context for the panel, not a call of its own.

The totals number is a registered candidate that loses to the closing total: across 2,264 held out games it missed the combined score by 12.862 points on average and the closing total missed by 12.635, ahead of us in all 3 of those seasons, so it never posts to the board and never enters the record on its own.

The write-up

The case

Our model makes Auburn a 10.5 point favorite on a neutral field, no home field in the number. The market had Auburn by 7 when we made the pick. The gap is 3.5 points, and it points to Auburn -7. Locked Mon 6:36am ET, and it grades at that number.

The independent signals

The trend engine has 5 independent reads on this game, 2 of them on the side. Rating-adjacent categories are left out, so none of these is our own number in different words.

  • Early-season total of 58.5 fits the validated under window, unders 55% historically (n=943). On the total, not the side (under).
  • Auburn games go UNDER 57% at home (n=80). On the total, not the side (under).
  • Auburn have gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10 (n=10). On the total, not the side (under).
  • Baylor have covered in 2 of their last 10 (n=10). Agrees with the pick.
  • Auburn have covered in 2 of their last 9 (n=9). Runs against the pick.

Trends

Descriptive context, each line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in testing, so none of this feeds the call and none of it is a reason the pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and every line states its own span.

  • Baylor: won 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • Baylor: lost 3 straight
  • Baylor: 2-7 straight up in night divisional games (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • Auburn: won 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • Auburn: 2-10 straight up in home divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)

Scoring profiles

2025: Baylor scored 31.1 and allowed 32.6 per game (n=12). Auburn scored 26.8 and allowed 20.7 per game (n=12).

written before kickoff, frozen at kickoff

Trends and splits

Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total join these once our closing-line history is restored; the straight-up splits are live now.

Baylor
  • won 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • lost 3 straight
  • 2-7 straight up in night divisional games (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
Auburn
  • won 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • 2-10 straight up in home divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
Over and under splits
  • Auburn games go UNDER 57% at home (n=80)
    total · under · moderate · n=80
    Multi-season split: Auburn at home landed under 57% of 80 gradable games (2013-2025). A genuine venue tendency, one of several reasons to lean under, not a standalone edge.
  • Auburn have gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10
    total · under · lean · n=10
    Auburn's last 10 gradable games landed under 80% vs the consensus total. Streak continuation tested 2013-2025: 49.5% train / 46.4% held-out 2025, it does NOT persist. A real recent pattern, weigh with the matchup, not alone.
The rest of the splits we can compute on this game
Baylor
  • won 4 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025)
  • 3-7 straight up in home night games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-9 straight up in night games (n=13, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-9 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-9 straight up in home divisional games (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-7 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
  • 11-16 straight up in divisional games (n=27, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-12 straight up after a straight up loss (n=21, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-12 straight up at home (n=21, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-5 straight up in home day games (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-7 straight up in road divisional games (n=13, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-8 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=15, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-8 straight up on the road (n=15, 2023 to 2025)
  • 12-12 straight up in day games (n=24, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-9 straight up in day divisional games (n=18, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-6 straight up in road day games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-5 straight up on the road after a straight up loss (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
Auburn
  • won 3 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025)
  • 3-11 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-18 straight up in divisional games (n=24, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-12 straight up in day divisional games (n=16, 2023 to 2025)
  • 2-6 straight up in night divisional games (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
  • 3-7 straight up in road day games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-8 straight up in road divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-15 straight up in day games (n=23, 2023 to 2025)
  • 3-5 straight up on the road after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-8 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=13, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-7 straight up in home day games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-12 straight up after a straight up loss (n=21, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-8 straight up on the road (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-6 straight up in night games (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 10-12 straight up at home (n=22, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-6 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-5 straight up in home night games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-4 straight up in night games after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)

Conditions at kickoff

Indoor (roof). · wind 0 mph

The ratings underneath, and where the numbers come from

The two numbers underneath

TeamEL ratingConference
Baylor 5.434 Big 12
Auburn 10.769 SEC

Our number carries no home field here: this game is at a neutral site. Full board: the power ratings.

Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.