Missouri at Ole Miss. Pick: Missouri +6.5. Pick: Under 59.5.

Spread.Market-first, Ole Miss -6 reflects its 52-17 rebound at Vanderbilt, home field, and an offense that has scored at least 32 points in four of five games. It also prices Missouri's 27-6 win over Texas A&M as defense-led rather than a proof that its passing offense will travel. Still, the captured market has not sustained the FanDuel -7.5 opener, and +6.5 is the only available number beyond the key six. Missouri brings a starting quarterback with direct familiarity with the Ole Miss program and just held A&M without a touchdown. Our -1.4 number supports the direction but is not an ATS edge, given its documented error. This is a modest price-specific Missouri lean, not a bet, because Ole Miss' recent explosive output is real and Wednesday's first SEC availability report is pending.

Total.Market-first, a total near 59 prices Ole Miss' 38.8 points per game, Missouri's 35.8, and the possibility that a competitive game keeps both offenses aggressive for four quarters. The best under case is more specific than generic pace talk. Missouri's latest game finished 27-6, while Ole Miss' 52 against Vanderbilt included 24 points off four turnovers, a result that can exaggerate its ordinary scoring environment. The forecast is dry, 73 degrees, and only 9 mph with 15 mph gusts, so weather supplies no meaningful under support. The captured 59.5 is preferable to 58.5 and sits above the 56.31 EL total, though that model's documented market deficit prevents a wager. Under is a lean only, pending availability.

Where our number looks wrong.The EL spread number likely underrates Ole Miss after treating its 52-17 Vanderbilt result and Missouri's defensive win over Texas A&M as ordinary final-margin inputs. Conversely, its flat 2.5-point home field and no injury adjustment may fail to explain why the market still favors Ole Miss by nearly a touchdown.

• The SEC's initial Saturday-game availability report is due Wednesday by 8:00 p.m. ET.
• Texas A&M scored only two field goals in Missouri's 27-6 win.
• Vanderbilt reported that Ole Miss scored 24 points off four turnovers in the 52-17 game.
• The stadium forecast is dry, 73 degrees, with 9 mph wind and 15 mph gusts.

Spread.Market first: Ole Miss at home near 6 reflects a 13-2 program last year, a quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss producing 1,435 passing yards through five games, a strong home field in Oxford, and a ranking edge. The news tilts mildly toward the dog. Missouri has allowed 17.7 points a game and just held Texas A&M to 6 and Florida to 17, while Ole Miss has allowed 28 a game, 52 at Florida and 38 to Louisville. Ole Miss lead back Kewan Lacy is listed with a shoulder issue and has only 230 rushing yards, and Missouri brings a productive run game behind Jamal Roberts with 828 yards plus a quarterback, Austin Simmons, who knows the Ole Miss staff and roster. FanDuel moved from Ole Miss 7.5 to 6.5 while the other books held 6. That is enough for a lean on Missouri plus 6, not a bet, because availability reports have not posted and the move is small.

Total.Market first: 59 reflects two offenses scoring 35.8 and 38.8 points a game and an Ole Miss defense allowing 28. The over case is real: Ole Miss games have featured 79, 80 and 69 total points. The under case: Missouri has allowed 17.7 a game and its last two SEC games landed at 62 and 33; Missouri leans on a run game behind Roberts that shortens possessions; Ole Miss may be without or limited at RB with Lacy listed; and the forecast shows wind near 11 mph. Our totals model sits at 56.3, a gap well inside its error. That sharp book shading the under is the deciding piece for a small lean, not a bet.

Where our number looks wrong.Our rating gives Missouri the higher in-season value off a soft early schedule (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Troy, Kansas) and a loss at Mississippi State, and it uses a flat 2.5 home field that likely undersells Oxford. It also cannot see that Ole Miss has an established quarterback and a deeper roster from a playoff run. The fair number is probably closer to Ole Miss 4 to 5 than 1.4, which still leaves a small edge on the Missouri side rather than the full 4.7 points.

• DraftKings total 59.5, over minus 105, under minus 115, opened 57.5
• Total opened 57.5 and moved to 58.5 at FanDuel and 59.5 at DraftKings; total ticket count leans under

Spread.The market has Ole Miss at home by 6 to 6.5, which is roughly a field-goal home edge on top of a small power gap, and that number has held since open (FanDuel shaded from 7.5 to 6.5). The strongest explanation for it is Ole Miss scoring 38.8 a game, a ranked home team at 9 against 13, and Missouri's quarterback Austin Simmons facing his former team. Against that, Missouri is 5-1 with a defense allowing 17.7 a game and just beat Texas A&M 27-6, while Ole Miss gave up 52 at Florida and reported soft-tissue and secondary issues, with safety Edwin Joseph in doubt. Six points is enough cushion that I lean Missouri as a short underdog, but I found no news that the market has missed, so this is a lean, not a bet.

Total.The total sits at 58.5 to 59.5 after opening 57.5 to 60.5, so there has been little net movement. The over case is Ole Miss scoring 38.8 a game and allowing 28, with a high-tempo SEC matchup in clear 67 degree weather. The under case is Missouri's defense allowing 17.7 a game, a likely controlled Missouri pace built on its run game and short fields, and Ole Miss secondary injuries mattering less if Missouri leans on the ground. It is close to a coin flip, so I take the under as a lean at the better number only.

• Ole Miss injury and secondary notes