Oklahoma at Mississippi State. Lean: Under 45. No call on the spread.

Spread.The market has made the strongest available adjustment: Oklahoma moved from about minus 2 to minus 4.5 while Mississippi State's starting quarterback status remains unresolved after its 0 to 31 loss without him at LSU. That is a coherent explanation for the number, not a signal to chase Oklahoma through 3. Mississippi State's Oct. 21 game notes still list Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell atop the depth chart, but coach Jeff Lebby called Taylor day to day on Oct. 19 and the official Wednesday SEC report was not yet posted. Oklahoma's defense has allowed 18.2 points per game, while its offense has produced only 21.3.

Total.The market first cut this total from 46 to 48.5 into the 44.5 to 45 range, a sensible response to Oklahoma's 21.3 points per game, its 18.2 points allowed, and Mississippi State's quarterback uncertainty. The under case is strongest if Taylor remains out, since Mississippi State was shut out at LSU without him. The over case is real if Taylor and Bothwell return: the official depth chart lists both first, Mississippi State averages 32.5 points and the forecast is dry and mild. Our 49.54 model number is not enough to override the market because its own dossier says it does not see injuries or pace. With the availability report pending, neither side is actionable at the captured total.

Where our number looks wrong.The model's Mississippi State plus 1.7 number cannot account for Taylor's unresolved foot injury or the offense's 0 point performance without him at LSU. Its 2.8 point disagreement is smaller than its stated error and should not oppose the market move.

• The line moved from Oklahoma minus 2.5 to minus 4 in the cited market history before the captured minus 4.5 price.
• Mississippi State's official notes give the teams' scoring and defensive averages and list Taylor and Bothwell first on the depth chart.
• The SEC recap said the absences of Taylor and Bothwell were significant in Mississippi State's 31 to 0 loss at LSU.
• External market history showed a total range falling from 46 to 44 to 45 before the captured 44.5 to 45 range.

Spread.Market first: Oklahoma opened 1.5 to 2.5 at every captured book on 10/18 and is now 4.5 everywhere, a move through the key number 3. The strongest explanation is the Mississippi State quarterback: Kamario Taylor (17 TD, 4 INT) missed the 31-0 loss at LSU with a right foot injury, and redshirt freshman Billy Puckett went 16 of 26 for 121 yards and an interception in his first start. Add an Oklahoma defense ranked fifth nationally in yards allowed and the move is rational. Our number, Oklahoma by 1.7, sits nearer the open and knows nothing about Taylor, so I discount it. What keeps me on the home side as a lean is that 4.5 now prices something close to a Taylor absence while Lebby still calls him day-to-day, and the side laying points has an offense scoring 21.3 a game with a minus 8 turnover margin, seven Mateer interceptions, and wins of 14-6 and 27-24. Laying more than a field goal on the road with that offense is not where I want to be. A lean, not a bet, because Taylor's status is the whole case and it is unresolved.

Total.Market first: totals opened 46 to 48.5 and are now 44.5 to 45, the same Taylor news driving the spread. Our model says 49.5, but it is mostly last year's offenses and sees no quarterback change. The under case has specific support: Oklahoma's offense ranks 107th in success rate and has scored 10, 13 and 13 in three of its last five, its defense ranks first in success rate, and Puckett produced zero points at LSU. The over case is real too: Mississippi State's defense ranks 121st in success rate, its games have averaged 61 total points, Oklahoma turnovers hand out short fields, and a Taylor return would add a lot. The weather is mild. Most of the information is priced, so this is a lean to the under at 45, not a bet.

Where our number looks wrong.Our number (Oklahoma by 1.7) cannot see that Mississippi State may be without Kamario Taylor, which is worth several points; with Taylor out the fair line is plausibly at or beyond the market's 4.5. The model only looks closer to right if Taylor plays.

• Lebby deferring Taylor status to SEC availability reports; status unresolved
• Oklahoma offense 107th in success rate, defense first; MSU defense 121st; total 46.5 at DraftKings on 10/19
• MSU lost 31-0 at LSU without Taylor; Taylor still day-to-day

Spread.The market has moved Oklahoma from 1.5 to 2.5 points favorite at open to 4.5 across every captured book. The strongest explanation is Mississippi State's recent form: a 23-56 home loss to Alabama and a 0-31 loss at LSU, with quarterback Kamario Taylor hampered by a foot injury (reported Oct 12) and listed questionable on our Covers scan for this game. Oklahoma lost 13-21 to Kentucky last week and scores only 21.3 per game with a reported battered offensive line, so the favorite is not a strong team either. The two sides of the news cancel: the Bulldogs offense is only dangerous if Taylor plays, and the Sooners offense has struggled to move the ball regardless. Four and a half sits near a key number and the move already prices Taylor's uncertainty. I could not verify Taylor's status for Saturday or any SEC availability report, which is the single fact that would decide the side. Without it this is a coin flip at the captured price, so no view.

Total.The total fell from 46 to 48.5 at open to 44.5 to 45 now, which already prices a lot of the news. The case for the under: Oklahoma scores 21.3 per game with a reported banged-up offensive line and held opponents to 18.2, and Mississippi State was shut out at LSU with its quarterback hampered by a foot injury. If Taylor sits, the Bulldogs offense has no clear path to scoring. The case for the over: Mississippi State scored 32.5 per game and its defense gave up 56 to Alabama, and weather is clear and calm so nothing suppresses scoring. With the market already down 1.5 to 4 points from open, the under is only a lean. I could not confirm Taylor's status, which swings the Bulldogs side. I would take the under at 45 and no lower than 44.

• Taylor foot injury, status uncertain