Mississippi State at Ole Miss. No call on the spread and no call on the total.
The call
How to read this page
The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
Who is on the injury report
- K. Taylor QB Questionable, undisclosed Oct 17
- B. Mitchell WR Out, undisclosed Sep 20
- T. Williams DL Out, leg Sep 26
- A. Williams WR Questionable, leg Oct 17
- F. Bothwell RB Questionable, foot Oct 17
- J. Freeman OG Questionable, undisclosed Oct 17
Latest daily scan (2026-10-28), real report rows only, as the source lists them; the report does not say who starts. Injuries are shown here as context and are not an input to our number or to any call.
The signals and the market
No directional signals on this game yet. The trend engine re-reads every game as lines move through the week; signals land here when they fire.
Model context
The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.
Our number on this game is for members. It is context; the panel makes the call.
Trends and splits
Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total join these once our closing-line history is restored; the straight-up splits are live now.
- won 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- lost 3 straight
- 1-14 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=15, 2024 to 2026)
- won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2026)
- 8-0 straight up in home night games (n=8, 2024 to 2026)
The rest of the splits we can compute on this game
- won 4 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- 1-10 straight up in home divisional games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-15 straight up in day divisional games (n=17, 2024 to 2026)
- 3-18 straight up in divisional games (n=21, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-10 straight up in home day games (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 3-12 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=15, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-8 straight up in road divisional games (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 2-7 straight up on the road after a straight up loss (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- 5-16 straight up after a straight up loss (n=21, 2024 to 2026)
- 3-8 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-15 straight up in day games (n=21, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-9 straight up on the road (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-11 straight up at home (n=18, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-5 straight up in road day games (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- 5-6 straight up in night games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- won 7 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- 18-1 straight up at home (n=19, 2024 to 2026)
- 10-1 straight up in home day games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
- 9-1 straight up in home divisional games (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 16-4 straight up in day games (n=20, 2024 to 2026)
- 12-3 straight up in night games (n=15, 2024 to 2026)
- 11-4 straight up in day divisional games (n=15, 2024 to 2026)
- 15-6 straight up in divisional games (n=21, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-3 straight up in road day games (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-5 straight up on the road (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 6-5 straight up in road divisional games (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
The ratings underneath, and where the numbers come from
The two numbers underneath
| Team | EL rating | Conference |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 6.095 | SEC |
| Ole Miss | 18.872 | SEC |
Our number includes about 2.5 points of home field. Full board: the power ratings.
Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.