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CFB · Week 0 · kickoff weekend · Sat, Aug 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Aviva Stadium · neutral site · FINAL North Carolina 15, TCU 10

North Carolina vs TCU. Pick: North Carolina +7.5. No call on the total.

WIN We had North Carolina +7.5. It cashed.

The call

Pick Spread free WIN
North Carolina +7.5
locked Sat 11:59am ET
North Carolina 15, TCU 10 (won outright)
free pick, released Sat 1:40pm ET
Called under the rule in force that week.
No call Total
How to read this page

The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own.

Model context

The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.

Locked line
North Carolina +7.5 · TCU -7.5
the spread we locked at, it does not move
Our model number
North Carolina by 0.6
the calibrated EL CFB rating number
Spread gap
both numbers are needed for a gap
Market total
pending
no capture on this game yet
Our total
no model number on this game
EL CFB Totals
Total gap
both numbers are needed for a gap

The write-up

The case

Our model makes TCU a 6.3 point favorite on a neutral field, no home field in the number. The market had TCU by 7.5 when we made the pick. The pick is North Carolina +7.5. Locked Sat 11:59am ET, and it grades at that number.

Trends

Descriptive context, each line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in testing, so none of this feeds the call and none of it is a reason the pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and every line states its own span.

  • North Carolina: won 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • North Carolina: lost 3 straight
  • North Carolina: 1-7 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
  • TCU: won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • TCU: won 3 straight
  • TCU: 8-2 straight up in home day games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)

Scoring profiles

2025: North Carolina scored 19.3 and allowed 24.5 per game (n=12). TCU scored 30.7 and allowed 25.3 per game (n=13).

written before kickoff, frozen at kickoff

Trends and splits

Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total join these once our closing-line history is restored; the straight-up splits are live now.

North Carolina
  • won 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • lost 3 straight
  • 1-7 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
TCU
  • won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • won 3 straight
  • 8-2 straight up in home day games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
The rest of the splits we can compute on this game
North Carolina
  • won 3 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025)
  • 2-11 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=13, 2023 to 2025)
  • 2-9 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-10 straight up in day divisional games (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-14 straight up after a straight up loss (n=20, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-8 straight up in road divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-15 straight up in divisional games (n=24, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-14 straight up in day games (n=23, 2023 to 2025)
  • 9-6 straight up in night games (n=15, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-9 straight up on the road (n=15, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-7 straight up in home divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-5 straight up in night games after a straight up loss (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-5 straight up on the road after a straight up loss (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • 11-9 straight up at home (n=20, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-7 straight up in home day games (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-5 straight up in night divisional games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-4 straight up in road night games (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
TCU
  • won 6 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025)
  • 6-2 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-3 straight up in day divisional games (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
  • 11-5 straight up in day games (n=16, 2023 to 2025)
  • 13-6 straight up at home (n=19, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-4 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 10-6 straight up after a straight up loss (n=16, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-10 straight up in night divisional games (n=16, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-5 straight up in home divisional games (n=13, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-8 straight up in road divisional games (n=13, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-9 straight up on the road (n=16, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-4 straight up in home night games (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-4 straight up in night games after a straight up loss (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • 12-10 straight up in night games (n=22, 2023 to 2025)
  • 14-13 straight up in divisional games (n=27, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-6 straight up in road night games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)

Conditions at kickoff

Partially cloudy. 63F · wind 5 mph

The ratings underneath, and where the numbers come from

The two numbers underneath

TeamEL ratingConference
North Carolina 3.196 ACC
TCU 3.168 Big 12

Our number carries no home field here: this game is at a neutral site. Full board: the power ratings.

Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.