Miami at Stanford. No call on the spread and no call on the total.
The call
No call on this game. A pass is not a hidden call: nothing on this game enters the record.
How to read this page
The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own. A Pick is our strongest call and goes on the record. A Lean is which way we lean on a game and is not a pick.The meter shows how strongly the panel backs the call. It is not a probability or a hit rate.
The signals and the market
3 independent signals on this game. The tally per side, every angle with its sample size, and the line movement from open to now open with membership. They are research context, never a pick. Membership
Model context
The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.
The totals number is a registered candidate that loses to the closing total: across 2,264 held out games it missed the combined score by 12.862 points on average and the closing total missed by 12.635, ahead of us in all 3 of those seasons, so it never posts to the board and never enters the record on its own.
Trends and splits
Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total join these once our closing-line history is restored; the straight-up splits are live now.
- won 4 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
- 8-1 straight up in home day games (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
- won 2 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025 to 2026)
- 1-11 straight up on the road (n=12, 2024 to 2025)
Over and under splits
- Early-season total of 53.5 fits the validated under window, unders 55% historically (n=943)H64 (validated): Aug through mid-Sep games with a closing total of 47+ landed under 55% of 943 games, 2015-2025. Recent seasons: 2022: 58% (n=92) · 2023: 53% (n=81) · 2024: 57% (n=103) · 2025: 52% (n=119). 2025 ran soft at 52.1%, below the -110 breakeven, and the 2026 forward test is pre-committed on the early-totals page. Early-season totals are shaded up by public over-action; the market corrects as real form data arrives.
The rest of the splits we can compute on this game
- won 8 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025)
- 18-3 straight up at home (n=21, 2023 to 2025)
- 10-2 straight up in home night games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
- 15-5 straight up in night games (n=20, 2023 to 2025)
- 9-3 straight up in home divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
- 15-7 straight up in day games (n=22, 2023 to 2025)
- 8-4 straight up after a straight up loss (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
- 9-5 straight up in day divisional games (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
- 7-4 straight up in road day games (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
- 15-9 straight up in divisional games (n=24, 2023 to 2025)
- 10-6 straight up on the road (n=16, 2023 to 2025)
- 5-3 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
- 6-4 straight up in night divisional games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
- 6-6 straight up in road divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
- won 4 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
- 1-9 straight up in day games (n=10, 2024 to 2025)
- 1-7 straight up in day divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
- 1-7 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
- 1-7 straight up in road divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
- 5-11 straight up in divisional games (n=16, 2024 to 2025)
- 6-3 straight up in home night games (n=9, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-11 straight up after a straight up loss (n=18, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-6 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2025)
- 6-4 straight up in night games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-5 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=12, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-6 straight up at home (n=13, 2024 to 2026)
- 7-8 straight up in night games (n=15, 2024 to 2026)
- 4-4 straight up in home divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
- 4-4 straight up in night divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
Conditions at kickoff
Clear. 69F · wind 12 mph
The ratings underneath, and where the numbers come from
The two numbers underneath
| Team | EL rating | Conference |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 20.408 | ACC |
| Stanford | -6.269 | ACC |
Our number includes about 2.5 points of home field. Full board: the power ratings.
Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.