Washington at USC. Lean: Washington +9.5. Pick: Under 58.5.

Spread.Market first: USC is priced near 10 because its offense has produced 9.45 yards per pass attempt and 14 passing touchdowns through five games, while Washington enters its first road game after losing 27-24 to Minnesota and has only 3.73 yards per rush. The market also has Washington's depleted backfield and now-confirmed absence of receiver Christian Moss to price. Still, USC has failed to cover four of five games, allowed 35 points at Rutgers and 41 against Oregon, and Washington gets more than a touchdown in a rivalry conference road game. Our number is USC -7.6 versus the -9.5 market, but its 1.9-point difference is not independently actionable and its margin model is unproven ATS. Washington +9.5 is a low-grade lean only, not a bet, because the Huskies have not yet played a road game and the Wednesday availability report is pending.

Total.Market first: the total rose from 53.5 to 58.5 at FanDuel and from 55.5 to 58.5 at BetMGM after USC's 41-27 Oregon loss and Washington's 27-24 Minnesota loss, with USC's explosive passing profile supporting the adjustment. The counterargument is that Washington has scored 24, 16 and 24 against its three FBS opponents, averages 3.73 yards per rush, and is without Moss after quad surgery. USC's injury questions remain unresolved, while the forecast is warm and dry rather than a weather-driven under setup. Under 58.5 at -108 is a lean because the market has already made a large upward move, not a bet given USC's explosive offense and its defensive volatility.

Where our number looks wrong.The rating treats USC's home field as a flat 2.5 points and uses final scores, so it may understate the information in Washington's first road trip, its depleted skill depth and USC's far more productive passing offense. Conversely, it may overreact to USC's five-game scoring margins without separating weak early opponents from Oregon.

• Big Ten midweek availability reports begin three days before Saturday games, with Wednesday, Thursday and Friday reports plus gameday.
• Washington's official schedule records 24 points versus Washington State, 16 versus Utah State and 24 versus Minnesota.
• Washington's game page reports Christian Moss had quad surgery and is discussed as a potential return only for the final two games.
• Action Network listed 90 F, 0 percent rain and 7 mph wind for the game.
• The captured market history shows totals rising to 58.5 at BetMGM and FanDuel.

Spread.Market first: USC at 9 to 9.5 reflects a home Big Ten favorite scoring 39.8 per game against a Washington team that just lost at home to Minnesota as a double digit favorite, rushed for 50 yards on 27 carries and allowed seven sacks. FanDuel opened 7.5 and moved to 9.5, so the Washington collapse is already in the number, while DraftKings actually ticked down half a point from 10. The news cuts both ways. Washington is down three running backs (Jordan Washington, Quaid Carr, Jayden Limar) and its line is struggling, which our rating does not see. USC is thin at receiver with Trent Mosley out for multiple games, Corey Simms, Ricky Ison and R. Tezeno listed questionable in a Covers scan I could not confirm against an official report. Washington's defense (16.8 allowed) is the best unit on the field. I hold a small lean on Washington +9.5 at the -105 price, not a bet.

Total.Market first: the total rose from 53.5 to 57.5 openers to 57.5 to 58.5, likely on USC's scoring (39.8 per game) and both teams allowing 27 or more last week. The over case is real: USC's offense has hit 39 or more in four of five games and Washington's run game failure could push it to throw more. The under case: Washington's offense is broken on the ground and managed 16 and 24 in two of its three FBS home games, its defense allowed 16.8 per game, USC's receiver room is depleted, and a 4:30pm PT kickoff in forecast 92 degree heat favors a slower game. I lean under 58.5 at -108 after the upward move, not a bet.

Where our number looks wrong.The rating does not see Washington's running back injuries or the pass protection problem exposed by Minnesota, so 7.6 probably flatters Washington somewhat. It also does not see USC's receiver attrition, which partly offsets. Net, the market's 9 to 9.5 is a fair correction and the gap carries no edge.

• USC WR Trent Mosley to miss multiple games with a knee injury
• NBC broadcast, 4:30pm PT kickoff at the Coliseum
• Washington 24 points against Minnesota with 50 rushing yards and 7 sacks allowed
• Washington offense cannot run, protect or pass effectively per week 4 review
• Kickoff 4:30pm PT at the Coliseum on NBC

Spread.Strongest explanation for USC minus 9.5: the Trojans are ranked 18th, at home in primetime, averaging 39.8 points, with a QB reported at 75.7 percent completions and 12 touchdowns to one interception through four games, while Washington just lost 24-27 at home to Minnesota and has not faced a ranked team. What it may under-price is USC's defense, which has allowed 26.4 per game and 41 to Oregon, against a Washington team allowing 16.8 per game. A two-score spread against a defense-first opponent with a cushion of 9.5 is a modest lean on the points, not a bet. I found no confirmed availability news beyond an unofficial Covers scan listing several USC receivers and RB as questionable, which could cut either way.

Total.The number rose from 55.5 to 58.5 at most books (FanDuel from 53.5), so the market has already priced USC's offense, which averages 39.8 and has been in shootouts (42-35, 49-30, 41-27). The over case is real: USC's defense allows 26.4 per game and Maiava reportedly has 12 touchdowns to one interception. The under case: Washington's defense allows 16.8 per game, Washington scores 28 per game, the heat forecast is 92 degrees, and the total moved up roughly three points, so much is priced. The under at 58.5 needs Washington to play slow and control possession.

• Search snippet showed an earlier 55.5 total on FanDuel, so the total has risen this week