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CFB · Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · FINAL Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42

Arkansas State at Memphis. Lean: Memphis -10. No call on the total.

The call

Lean W Spread
Memphis -10
locked Mon 6:36am ET
locked -10 · closed -10.5
Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42
Called under the rule in force that week.
No call Total
How to read this page

The calls come first on this page: the spread and the total, each a Pick or a Lean, then Ace, Stack and Buck one by one. The market's number, our number and the gap between them sit further down as MODEL CONTEXT: that is the input our analyst panel argued from, not a call of its own.

The signals and the market

6 independent signals on this game. The tally per side, every angle with its sample size, and the line movement from open to now open with membership. They are research context, never a pick. Membership

Model context

The numbers the panel argued from. Our models price a game, the panel makes the call, and the calls above are the call. Nothing in this block is a call.

Locked line
Arkansas State +10 · Memphis -10
the spread we locked at, it does not move
Our model number
Memphis by 12.6
the calibrated EL CFB rating number
Spread gap
5.9 points
the distance between our model number and the market. Context for the panel, not a call of its own.
Market total
66.5
market total at the model run, Sep 8, 12:28 AM ET
Our total
53.0
EL CFB Totals
Total gap
-13.5
the distance between our model total and the market total. Context for the panel, not a call of its own.

The totals number is a registered candidate that loses to the closing total: across 2,264 held out games it missed the combined score by 12.862 points on average and the closing total missed by 12.635, ahead of us in all 3 of those seasons, so it never posts to the board and never enters the record on its own.

The write-up

The case

Our model makes Memphis a 12 point favorite at home, 2.5 points of home field included. The market had Memphis by 10 when we made the pick. The gap is 2 points, and it points to Memphis -10. Locked Mon 6:36am ET, and it grades at that number.

The independent signals

The trend engine has 3 independent reads on this game, none of them on the side. Rating-adjacent categories are left out, so none of these is our own number in different words.

  • Early-season total of 52.5 fits the validated under window, unders 55% historically (n=943). On the total, not the side (under).
  • Memphis games go OVER 60% at home (n=72). On the total, not the side (over).
  • Arkansas State have gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10 (n=10). On the total, not the side (under).

Head to head

Memphis and Arkansas State have met 5 times since 2013 (2013 to 2023). Memphis leads it 5-0. Last meeting: Memphis 37, Arkansas State 3, in 2023. Average margin across those 5 meetings: Memphis by 17.6.

Trends

Descriptive context, each line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in testing, so none of this feeds the call and none of it is a reason the pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and every line states its own span.

  • Arkansas State: won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • Arkansas State: 8-3 straight up in home night games (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
  • Memphis: won 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025 to 2026)
  • Memphis: 12-2 straight up in night games (n=14, 2024 to 2026)

Scoring profiles

2025: Arkansas State scored 25.2 and allowed 27.4 per game (n=13). Memphis scored 32.5 and allowed 23.2 per game (n=13). 2026 to date: Memphis scored 27.0 and allowed 21.0 per game (n=1).

written before kickoff, frozen at kickoff

Trends and splits

Descriptive context, every line with the games it counts. Filters like these did not hold up as predictors in our testing, so none of this feeds a call and none of it is a reason a pick wins. Situational splits look back 3 seasons and need at least 8 decided games to be shown at all. Records against the number and on the total join these once our closing-line history is restored; the straight-up splits are live now.

Arkansas State
  • won 3 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025)
  • 8-3 straight up in home night games (n=11, 2023 to 2025)
Memphis
  • won 1 of their last 5 (n=5, 2025 to 2026)
  • 12-2 straight up in night games (n=14, 2024 to 2026)
Over and under splits
  • Early-season total of 66.5 fits the validated under window, unders 55% historically (n=943)
    total · under · moderate · n=943
    H64 (validated): Aug through mid-Sep games with a closing total of 47+ landed under 55% of 943 games, 2015-2025. Recent seasons: 2022: 58% (n=92) · 2023: 53% (n=81) · 2024: 57% (n=103) · 2025: 52% (n=119). 2025 ran soft at 52.1%, below the -110 breakeven, and the 2026 forward test is pre-committed on the early-totals page. Early-season totals are shaded up by public over-action; the market corrects as real form data arrives.
  • Memphis games go OVER 60% at home (n=72)
    total · over · moderate · n=72
    Multi-season split: Memphis at home landed over 60% of 72 gradable games (2013-2025). A genuine venue tendency, one of several reasons to lean over, not a standalone edge.
  • Arkansas State have gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10
    total · under · lean · n=10
    Arkansas State's last 10 gradable games landed under 80% vs the consensus total. Streak continuation tested 2013-2025: 49.5% train / 46.4% held-out 2025, it does NOT persist. A real recent pattern, weigh with the matchup, not alone.
The rest of the splits we can compute on this game
Arkansas State
  • won 6 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025)
  • 13-5 straight up in night games (n=18, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-3 straight up in divisional games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-3 straight up in night divisional games (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-8 straight up in road day games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 12-6 straight up at home (n=18, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-4 straight up in home divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 8-13 straight up in day games (n=21, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-10 straight up on the road (n=17, 2023 to 2025)
  • 14-10 straight up in divisional games (n=24, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-4 straight up at home after a straight up loss (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-4 straight up in night games after a straight up loss (n=9, 2023 to 2025)
  • 10-9 straight up after a straight up loss (n=19, 2023 to 2025)
  • 7-7 straight up in day divisional games (n=14, 2023 to 2025)
  • 6-6 straight up in road divisional games (n=12, 2023 to 2025)
  • 5-5 straight up in day games after a straight up loss (n=10, 2023 to 2025)
  • 4-4 straight up on the road after a straight up loss (n=8, 2023 to 2025)
Memphis
  • won 5 of their last 10 (n=10, 2025 to 2026)
  • 11-2 straight up at home (n=13, 2024 to 2025)
  • 7-2 straight up in night divisional games (n=9, 2024 to 2025)
  • 6-2 straight up in home divisional games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
  • 6-2 straight up in home night games (n=8, 2024 to 2025)
  • 7-4 straight up on the road (n=11, 2024 to 2026)
  • 10-6 straight up in divisional games (n=16, 2024 to 2025)
  • 8-5 straight up in day games (n=13, 2024 to 2025)

Conditions at kickoff

Partially cloudy. 97F · wind 5 mph · 8% chance of precipitation

The ratings underneath, and where the numbers come from

The two numbers underneath

TeamEL ratingConference
Arkansas State -7.165 Sun Belt
Memphis 1.284 American Athletic

Our number includes about 2.5 points of home field. Full board: the power ratings.

Where the numbers come from. Schedules and finals come from the league data we load each night. Lines are the latest capture at DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM, with the book named beside every number. Every Pick locks when it posts and grades at that number on the public record. Our number is context; the panel makes the call. Research, never a guarantee. 21+.