Edge Labs · CFB · Talent vs Record
The talent a roster signed vs what it did.
Every FBS team's recruiting talent (the 4-year composite, and its national rank that season) lined up against its actual record. The gap is the story · who outran the roster they had, and who left blue-chip talent on the field. National rank, record, and the sample behind each, on every team.
Read this first
Talent is a leading indicator and records drift back toward the roster. In our point-in-time test (2020·2025, n>150 each side), teams that outran their recruiting talent fell about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the ones that underachieved rose about as much. So these gaps tend to close next year. That is a direction the data leans, not a guaranteed pick and not a bet.
+85gap · pts Biggest overachiever · 2026
New Mexico
Mountain West · talent #133 of 138 · 8-1 (9 g)
thin talent (#133 of 138), went 8-1. Outran the roster.
-54gap · pts Biggest underachiever · 2026
Texas A&M
SEC · talent #3 of 138 · 4-5 (9 g)
blue-chip talent (#3 of 138), went 4-5. Left it on the field.
All FBS · 2026 Talent vs record · biggest gaps first
n=130 teams · 130 ranked | Team | Talent rank | Composite | Record | Win% | Gap (pts) ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New MexicoMountain West | #133 / 138 | 58.5 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +85 |
| Air ForceMountain West | #120 / 138 | 62.2 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +65 |
| Western MichiganMAC | #119 / 138 | 62.4 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +56 |
| North Dakota StateMountain West | #108 / 138 | 63.5 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +56 |
| Fresno StatePac-12 | #137 / 138 | 55.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +55 |
| Boise StatePac-12 | #91 / 138 | 65.0 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +55 |
| Texas A&MSEC | #3 / 138 | 81.6 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -54 |
| North TexasAAC | #104 / 138 | 63.9 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +53 |
| LibertyC-USA | #88 / 138 | 65.7 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +52 |
| Louisiana TechC-USA | #102 / 138 | 64.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +52 |
| MarylandBig Ten | #22 / 138 | 73.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -51 |
| Georgia TechACC | #38 / 138 | 71.3 | 2-7 (9g) | 22% | -51 |
| ArmyAAC | #127 / 138 | 61.5 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +48 |
| James MadisonSun Belt | #93 / 138 | 64.9 | 8-2 (10g) | 80% | +47 |
| BuffaloMAC | #103 / 138 | 64.0 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +44 |
| DelawareC-USA | #138 / 138 | 55.6 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +44 |
| Central MichiganMAC | #129 / 138 | 61.0 | 5-5 (10g) | 50% | +43 |
| ColoradoBig 12 | #24 / 138 | 73.0 | 4-6 (10g) | 40% | -43 |
| CharlotteAAC | #67 / 138 | 67.6 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -41 |
| Florida StateACC | #14 / 138 | 77.4 | 5-5 (10g) | 50% | -41 |
| FloridaSEC | #8 / 138 | 79.4 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -39 |
| Jacksonville StateC-USA | #84 / 138 | 66.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +38 |
| RutgersBig Ten | #55 / 138 | 69.6 | 2-7 (9g) | 22% | -38 |
| Texas StateSun Belt | #114 / 138 | 63.0 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +38 |
| VanderbiltSEC | #25 / 138 | 72.9 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -38 |
| UTSAAAC | #82 / 138 | 66.3 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +37 |
| Penn StateBig Ten | #12 / 138 | 77.9 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -36 |
| ToledoMAC | #78 / 138 | 66.6 | 8-2 (10g) | 80% | +36 |
| MarshallSun Belt | #111 / 138 | 63.3 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +36 |
| UCLABig Ten | #50 / 138 | 70.1 | 10-0 (10g) | 100% | +36 |
| OklahomaSEC | #13 / 138 | 77.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -36 |
| UNLVMountain West | #110 / 138 | 63.5 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +35 |
| UtahBig 12 | #49 / 138 | 70.1 | 9-0 (9g) | 100% | +35 |
| Michigan StateBig Ten | #45 / 138 | 70.4 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -35 |
| Mississippi StateSEC | #30 / 138 | 72.5 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -34 |
| MichiganBig Ten | #15 / 138 | 76.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -34 |
| Ohio StateBig Ten | #1 / 138 | 83.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -33 |
| AuburnSEC | #17 / 138 | 76.2 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -33 |
| StanfordACC | #33 / 138 | 71.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -32 |
| Kennesaw StateC-USA | #136 / 138 | 56.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +32 |
| Wake ForestACC | #59 / 138 | 69.1 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +31 |
| New Mexico StateC-USA | #135 / 138 | 58.2 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +31 |
| MemphisAAC | #71 / 138 | 67.2 | 8-2 (10g) | 80% | +31 |
| WyomingMountain West | #89 / 138 | 65.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +31 |
| TCUBig 12 | #35 / 138 | 71.7 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -31 |
| UCFBig 12 | #21 / 138 | 73.9 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -30 |
| KansasBig 12 | #52 / 138 | 70.0 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -29 |
| Boston CollegeACC | #37 / 138 | 71.3 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -29 |
| Utah StatePac-12 | #117 / 138 | 62.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +29 |
| OhioMAC | #81 / 138 | 66.3 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +28 |
| San Diego StatePac-12 | #116 / 138 | 62.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +28 |
| Kansas StateBig 12 | #39 / 138 | 71.2 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -28 |
| OregonBig Ten | #9 / 138 | 79.1 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -27 |
| TulsaAAC | #99 / 138 | 64.3 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +27 |
| South CarolinaSEC | #10 / 138 | 78.7 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -27 |
| ArkansasSEC | #56 / 138 | 69.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -27 |
| LSUSEC | #11 / 138 | 78.5 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -26 |
| NC StateACC | #43 / 138 | 70.4 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -25 |
| Georgia SouthernSun Belt | #96 / 138 | 64.4 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +25 |
| Old DominionSun Belt | #131 / 138 | 59.5 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +25 |
| WashingtonBig Ten | #28 / 138 | 72.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -25 |
| Missouri StateC-USA | #126 / 138 | 61.7 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +25 |
| BYUBig 12 | #65 / 138 | 68.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +24 |
| Georgia StateSun Belt | #95 / 138 | 64.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +24 |
| North CarolinaACC | #29 / 138 | 72.6 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -24 |
| Washington StatePac-12 | #90 / 138 | 65.1 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -24 |
| RiceAAC | #92 / 138 | 64.9 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -22 |
| ClemsonACC | #16 / 138 | 76.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -22 |
| NevadaMountain West | #123 / 138 | 62.1 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +22 |
| TexasSEC | #2 / 138 | 83.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | -21 |
| IllinoisBig Ten | #85 / 138 | 66.0 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | +21 |
| Eastern MichiganMAC | #112 / 138 | 63.2 | 4-6 (10g) | 40% | +21 |
| Ole MissSEC | #18 / 138 | 75.8 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -21 |
| DukeACC | #60 / 138 | 69.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +21 |
| Kent StateMAC | #125 / 138 | 61.7 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +21 |
| NebraskaBig Ten | #34 / 138 | 71.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -20 |
| AlabamaSEC | #4 / 138 | 81.6 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | -20 |
| AkronMAC | #97 / 138 | 64.4 | 1-9 (10g) | 10% | -20 |
| MissouriSEC | #20 / 138 | 74.2 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -19 |
| Florida AtlanticAAC | #72 / 138 | 67.1 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +18 |
| Southern MissSun Belt | #68 / 138 | 67.5 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -18 |
| Iowa StateBig 12 | #53 / 138 | 69.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -18 |
| Middle TennesseeC-USA | #86 / 138 | 65.9 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +18 |
| Bowling GreenMAC | #121 / 138 | 62.2 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +18 |
| IndianaBig Ten | #40 / 138 | 70.9 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +17 |
| WisconsinBig Ten | #23 / 138 | 73.1 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -17 |
| TroySun Belt | #100 / 138 | 64.2 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +17 |
| Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | #115 / 138 | 62.9 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +17 |
| PurdueBig Ten | #70 / 138 | 67.3 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -16 |
| Ball StateMAC | #118 / 138 | 62.6 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +15 |
| Florida InternationalC-USA | #98 / 138 | 64.3 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +15 |
| Virginia TechACC | #26 / 138 | 72.8 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -15 |
| Miami (OH)MAC | #76 / 138 | 66.8 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | +15 |
| Texas TechBig 12 | #36 / 138 | 71.6 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +14 |
| BaylorBig 12 | #27 / 138 | 72.7 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -14 |
| ArizonaBig 12 | #51 / 138 | 70.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +14 |
| SyracuseACC | #58 / 138 | 69.2 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -14 |
| NorthwesternBig Ten | #64 / 138 | 68.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +13 |
| UABAAC | #79 / 138 | 66.5 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +12 |
| Arkansas StateSun Belt | #94 / 138 | 64.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +12 |
| Oregon StatePac-12 | #77 / 138 | 66.6 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +11 |
| TulaneAAC | #63 / 138 | 68.4 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -10 |
| MinnesotaBig Ten | #48 / 138 | 70.1 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -10 |
| Western KentuckyC-USA | #106 / 138 | 63.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +10 |
| CincinnatiBig 12 | #75 / 138 | 66.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +10 |
| NavyAAC | #105 / 138 | 63.8 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +9 |
| USCBig Ten | #19 / 138 | 75.4 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | -9 |
| GeorgiaSEC | #5 / 138 | 80.4 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | -8 |
| IowaBig Ten | #42 / 138 | 70.5 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +8 |
| Oklahoma StateBig 12 | #57 / 138 | 69.5 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +8 |
| MiamiACC | #6 / 138 | 80.1 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | -7 |
| UConnIndependent | #87 / 138 | 65.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +7 |
| Sam HoustonC-USA | #113 / 138 | 63.1 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | -7 |
| SMUACC | #41 / 138 | 70.6 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +7 |
| Colorado StatePac-12 | #83 / 138 | 66.1 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | -7 |
| Notre DameIndependent | #7 / 138 | 79.6 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | -7 |
| PittsburghACC | #47 / 138 | 70.2 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | -6 |
| Northern IllinoisMountain West | #130 / 138 | 60.8 | 0-9 (9g) | 0% | -6 |
| Arizona StateBig 12 | #54 / 138 | 69.6 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | -6 |
| East CarolinaAAC | #69 / 138 | 67.4 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +5 |
| South FloridaAAC | #61 / 138 | 68.9 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | +4 |
| West VirginiaBig 12 | #66 / 138 | 67.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +3 |
| HoustonBig 12 | #46 / 138 | 70.3 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +3 |
| VirginiaACC | #74 / 138 | 66.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | -2 |
| South AlabamaSun Belt | #80 / 138 | 66.3 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +2 |
| LouisvilleACC | #44 / 138 | 70.4 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | -2 |
| TempleAAC | #109 / 138 | 63.5 | 2-7 (9g) | 22% | +1 |
| UTEPMountain West | #124 / 138 | 61.9 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | +1 |
| KentuckySEC | #32 / 138 | 72.1 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +0 |
| TennesseeSEC | #31 / 138 | 72.3 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | 0 |
National talent rank is across all 130 FBS programs with a composite this season · record is regular season from game results · gap = win% minus the talent-rank percentile, in points · a frequency and a direction, never a pick or a bet.
This is talent intelligence, not a betting edge. The recruiting composite does not beat the spread · we tested it and it lands near a coin flip against the number in every bucket. What it does do is show where a roster's talent and its record pulled apart, and that gap tends to regress. Every number ships with its sample (games behind the record, programs behind the rank). Research, not advice.