The talent a roster signed vs what it did.
Every FBS team's recruiting talent (the 4-year composite, and its national rank that season) lined up against its actual record. The gap is the story · who outran the roster they had, and who left blue-chip talent on the field. National rank, record, and the sample behind each, on every team.
Talent is a leading indicator and records drift back toward the roster. In our point-in-time test (2020·2025, n>150 each side), teams that outran their recruiting talent fell about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the ones that underachieved rose about as much. So these gaps tend to close next year. That is a direction the data leans, not a guaranteed pick and not a bet.
| Team | Talent rank | Composite | Record | Win% | Gap (pts) ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New MexicoMountain West | #133 / 138 | 58.5 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +85 |
| Air ForceMountain West | #120 / 138 | 62.2 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +65 |
| Western MichiganMAC | #119 / 138 | 62.4 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +56 |
| North Dakota StateMountain West | #108 / 138 | 63.5 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +56 |
| Fresno StatePac-12 | #137 / 138 | 55.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +55 |
| Boise StatePac-12 | #91 / 138 | 65.0 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +55 |
| North TexasAAC | #104 / 138 | 63.9 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +53 |
| LibertyC-USA | #88 / 138 | 65.7 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +52 |
| Louisiana TechC-USA | #102 / 138 | 64.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +52 |
| ArmyAAC | #127 / 138 | 61.5 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +48 |
| James MadisonSun Belt | #93 / 138 | 64.9 | 8-2 (10g) | 80% | +47 |
| BuffaloMAC | #103 / 138 | 64.0 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +44 |
| DelawareC-USA | #138 / 138 | 55.6 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +44 |
| Central MichiganMAC | #129 / 138 | 61.0 | 5-5 (10g) | 50% | +43 |
| Jacksonville StateC-USA | #84 / 138 | 66.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +38 |
| Texas StateSun Belt | #114 / 138 | 63.0 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +38 |
| UTSAAAC | #82 / 138 | 66.3 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +37 |
| ToledoMAC | #78 / 138 | 66.6 | 8-2 (10g) | 80% | +36 |
| MarshallSun Belt | #111 / 138 | 63.3 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +36 |
| UCLABig Ten | #50 / 138 | 70.1 | 10-0 (10g) | 100% | +36 |
| UNLVMountain West | #110 / 138 | 63.5 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +35 |
| UtahBig 12 | #49 / 138 | 70.1 | 9-0 (9g) | 100% | +35 |
| Kennesaw StateC-USA | #136 / 138 | 56.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +32 |
| Wake ForestACC | #59 / 138 | 69.1 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +31 |
| New Mexico StateC-USA | #135 / 138 | 58.2 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +31 |
| MemphisAAC | #71 / 138 | 67.2 | 8-2 (10g) | 80% | +31 |
| WyomingMountain West | #89 / 138 | 65.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +31 |
| Utah StatePac-12 | #117 / 138 | 62.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +29 |
| OhioMAC | #81 / 138 | 66.3 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +28 |
| San Diego StatePac-12 | #116 / 138 | 62.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +28 |
| TulsaAAC | #99 / 138 | 64.3 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +27 |
| Georgia SouthernSun Belt | #96 / 138 | 64.4 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +25 |
| Old DominionSun Belt | #131 / 138 | 59.5 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +25 |
| Missouri StateC-USA | #126 / 138 | 61.7 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +25 |
| BYUBig 12 | #65 / 138 | 68.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +24 |
| Georgia StateSun Belt | #95 / 138 | 64.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +24 |
| NevadaMountain West | #123 / 138 | 62.1 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +22 |
| IllinoisBig Ten | #85 / 138 | 66.0 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | +21 |
| Eastern MichiganMAC | #112 / 138 | 63.2 | 4-6 (10g) | 40% | +21 |
| DukeACC | #60 / 138 | 69.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +21 |
| Kent StateMAC | #125 / 138 | 61.7 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +21 |
| Florida AtlanticAAC | #72 / 138 | 67.1 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +18 |
| Middle TennesseeC-USA | #86 / 138 | 65.9 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +18 |
| Bowling GreenMAC | #121 / 138 | 62.2 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +18 |
| IndianaBig Ten | #40 / 138 | 70.9 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +17 |
| TroySun Belt | #100 / 138 | 64.2 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +17 |
| Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | #115 / 138 | 62.9 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +17 |
| Ball StateMAC | #118 / 138 | 62.6 | 3-7 (10g) | 30% | +15 |
| Florida InternationalC-USA | #98 / 138 | 64.3 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +15 |
| Miami (OH)MAC | #76 / 138 | 66.8 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | +15 |
| Texas TechBig 12 | #36 / 138 | 71.6 | 8-1 (9g) | 89% | +14 |
| ArizonaBig 12 | #51 / 138 | 70.0 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +14 |
| NorthwesternBig Ten | #64 / 138 | 68.3 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +13 |
| UABAAC | #79 / 138 | 66.5 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +12 |
| Arkansas StateSun Belt | #94 / 138 | 64.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +12 |
| Oregon StatePac-12 | #77 / 138 | 66.6 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +11 |
| Western KentuckyC-USA | #106 / 138 | 63.6 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +10 |
| CincinnatiBig 12 | #75 / 138 | 66.8 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +10 |
| NavyAAC | #105 / 138 | 63.8 | 3-6 (9g) | 33% | +9 |
| IowaBig Ten | #42 / 138 | 70.5 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +8 |
| Oklahoma StateBig 12 | #57 / 138 | 69.5 | 6-3 (9g) | 67% | +8 |
| UConnIndependent | #87 / 138 | 65.8 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +7 |
| SMUACC | #41 / 138 | 70.6 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +7 |
| East CarolinaAAC | #69 / 138 | 67.4 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +5 |
| South FloridaAAC | #61 / 138 | 68.9 | 6-4 (10g) | 60% | +4 |
| West VirginiaBig 12 | #66 / 138 | 67.7 | 5-4 (9g) | 56% | +3 |
| HoustonBig 12 | #46 / 138 | 70.3 | 7-3 (10g) | 70% | +3 |
| South AlabamaSun Belt | #80 / 138 | 66.3 | 4-5 (9g) | 44% | +2 |
| TempleAAC | #109 / 138 | 63.5 | 2-7 (9g) | 22% | +1 |
| UTEPMountain West | #124 / 138 | 61.9 | 1-8 (9g) | 11% | +1 |
| KentuckySEC | #32 / 138 | 72.1 | 7-2 (9g) | 78% | +0 |
This is talent intelligence, not a betting edge. The recruiting composite does not beat the spread · we tested it and it lands near a coin flip against the number in every bucket. What it does do is show where a roster's talent and its record pulled apart, and that gap tends to regress. Every number ships with its sample (games behind the record, programs behind the rank). Research, not advice.